Inferactive data analysis

We describe inferactive data analysis, so-named to denote an interactive approach to data analysis with an emphasis on inference after data analysis. Our approach is a compromise between Tukey's exploratory and confirmatory data analysis allowing also for Bayesian data analysis. We see this as a useful step in concrete providing tools (with statistical guarantees) for current data scientists. The basis of inference we use is (a conditional approach to) selective inference, in particular its randomized form. The relevant reference distributions are constructed from what we call a DAG-DAG—a Data Analysis Generative DAG, and a selective change of variables formula is crucial to any practical implementation of inferactive data analysis via sampling these distributions. We discuss a canonical example of an incomplete cross-validation test statistic to discriminate between black box models, and a real HIV dataset example to illustrate inference after making multiple queries on data.     

A Bayesian mixture of experts approach to covariate misclassification

This article considers misclassification of categorical covariates in the context of regression analysis; if unaccounted for, such errors usually result in mis-estimation of model parameters. With the presence of additional covariates, we exploit the fact that explicitly modelling non-differential misclassification with respect to the response leads to a mixture regression representation. Under the framework of mixture of experts, we enable the reclassification probabilities to vary with other covariates, a situation commonly caused by misclassification that is differential on certain covariates and/or by dependence between the misclassified and additional covariates. Using Bayesian inference, the mixture approach combines learning from data with external information on the magnitude of errors when it is available. In addition to proving the theoretical identifiability of the mixture of experts approach, we study the amount of efficiency loss resulting from covariate misclassification and the usefulness of external information in mitigating such loss. The method is applied to adjust for misclassification on self-reported cocaine use in the Longitudinal Studies of HIV-Associated Lung Infections and Complications.     

试论西部大开发与文物保护——以青海省塔尔寺为例

随着西部大开发战略的实施 ,文物的保护工作就显得十分重要。本文从保护与利用两个方面进行了概括的论述 ,提出了如何保护利用的具体意见     

代际关系的影响因素及如何建立正向的代际关系

本文宗旨是如何建立成年子女和老年父母之间正向的代际关系并增强代际间的相互理解。讨论了影响代际关系的因素。家庭趋势的变动对老年人照料提出了挑战。这些发现使未来老年父母一代的前景堪忧 ,例如他们经历了更高的离婚率 ,因此可能会对来自公共和社会保险项目的支持产生更多需求。成年子女和老年父母之间亲密感情和冲突的并存使代际关系变得很复杂。本文最后探讨了如何建立正向的代际关系     

高额现金股利分配的原因分析——基于沧州明珠的案例研究

运用案例研究方法,从沧州明珠高额现金股利分配入手,对我国一些上市公司高额现金股利政策进行了深入剖析.研究发现,从利润流和现金流角度分析,沧州明珠均属于非理性派现,但派现后市场反应平淡,既没有热捧,也没有负面反应.公司派发高额现金股利根源在于限售股股东放弃一些对于非限售股股东而言净现值大于零的项目,从而发放高额现金股利,达到加快回收其投入资金的目的.     

国有股和法人股对公司业绩的影响--公用事业型上市公司的实证研究

公司的股份集中于少数几个大股东手中是中国公司股权结构的一个普遍特征,研究这些大股东如何凭借其持股地位影响公司业绩是中国公司股权结构研究的一个非常重要的问题.本文选取了在上交所上市的公用事业型公司1998年至2002年的平行数据进行实证研究,结果表明,法人股对公司业绩有积极影响,国有股对公司业绩的影响视具体情况而定.     

高等教育最优投资双层规划模型研究

高等教育投资具有"双层"的特点,上层为省级主管部门,下层为高等学校。本文成功运用了双层规划模型,在不考虑高校自筹发展资金投入的情况下,建立了高等教育最优投资双层规划模型,研究了模型最优解的存在性,给出并证明了模型最优解的等价形式,设计了模型解的算法并进行了算法复杂性分析。通过求解模型,可以同时得到省级主管部门和高等学校的最优投资决策方案。文章最后还给出了考虑高校自筹发展资金的两种情况下建立投资模型和求得最优解的方法。     

经理股票期权与受限制股票报酬的效果分析

股票期权激励和受限制性股票报酬是目前世界上常用的长期激励报酬形式,而企业经理却认为传统上使用的B-S公式对股票期权的估价"太高",相对于"价值相同"的受限制性股票,经理更愿意接受受限制性股票.我们通过经理获得这两种报酬的效用模型的比较,分析了风险厌恶型经理对股权报酬以及受限制性股票的估价,并进一步估计了企业向经理提供股权报酬的绝对损失.从而解释为什么经理股票期权的激励效果不佳的问题.     

基于投入产出技术的能源效率新指标——生产能耗综合指数

随着全世界对能源需求的增加,以及全球气候变化之于人类的负面影响逐渐加剧,能源效率的高低已成为衡量一国经济、政治和环境发展的重要标志。但是现有的能源效率指标在国内国际比较中并不能更好的发挥作用,鉴于此,本文在投入产出技术框架下,提出生产能耗综合指数这一比较能源效率的新指标,以此能更加完善我国能源效率的评价体系,更加科学合理的指导经济建设,指明节能工作的主要方向。     

Foreign Competition and Innovation: The Mediating Role of Imitation

This study examines the extent to which foreign competition affects the innovation performance of domestic firms through imitation, given firms’ absorptive capacity. In analysing longitudinal firm‐level data from the UK, we find a mediating effect of imitation on the relationship between foreign competition and local firms’ innovation performance, and an inverted U‐shaped relationship between imitation and the innovation performance of local firms. Our findings further reveal that absorptive capacity moderates the mediating effect of imitation, diminishing innovation gains at moderate levels of imitation and mitigating the diminishing innovation performance at high levels of imitation.