Structural Change Monitoring for Random Coefficient Autoregressive Time Series

A monitoring scheme is proposed to sequentially detect a structural change in random coefficient autoregressive time series of order p (RCA(p)) after a training period of size T. It extends structural change monitoring to RCA(p) time series. The asymptotic properties of our monitoring statistic are established under both the null of no change in parameters and the alternative of a change in coefficient. The finite sample properties are investigated by a simulation study.     

Impact of Water Level Rise on Urban Infrastructures: Washington,DC, and Shanghai as Case Studies

The observed global sea level rise owing to climate change, coupled with the potential increase in extreme storms, requires a reexamination of existing infrastructural planning, construction, and management practices. Storm surge shows the effects of rising sea levels. The recent super storms that hit the United States (e.g., Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Sandy in 2012, Harvey and Maria in 2017) and China (e.g., Typhoon Haiyan in 2010) inflicted serious loss of life and property. Water level rise (WLR) of local coastal areas is a combination of sea level rise, storm surge, precipitation, and local land subsidence. Quantitative assessments of the impact of WLR include scenario identification, consequence assessment, vulnerability and flooding assessment, and risk management using inventory of assets from coastal areas, particularly population centers, to manage flooding risk and to enhance infrastructure resilience of coastal cities. This article discusses the impact of WLR on urban infrastructures with case studies of Washington, DC, and Shanghai. Based on the flooding risk analysis under possible scenarios, the property loss for Washington, DC, was evaluated, and the impact on the metro system of Shanghai was examined.     

十一届三中全会与中国的改革

党的十一届三中全会,是中国社会主义改革史上的一个界碑。改革是一场革命,又是一场伟大的社会主义建设的实践。２０年来,沿着建设有中国特色的社会主义道路,在农村和城市进行了广泛而深刻的改革,经过起步、展开和深化三个阶段,不仅取得了巨大的历史性成就,而且创造了极为丰富的改革经验     

利益的法律分配及其保障 --对现当代法律机制的整体性描述

法理学迄今未就现当代人类生活中法律机制与利益实现之间的对应关系做直接而明晰的阐述。从静态而言,现当代法律机制涉及了利益结构中的各要素：主体、客体和作为主客体关系的中介因素的行为。从动态而言,法律机制是分配利益,并为这一分配提供具体保障的统一：宪法对社会的基本利益加以分配,普通立法则是宪法对利益分配的延伸性分配与补充性分配,二者构成法律分配利益的两个层级;为了利益分配的实现,法律还设定了相应的保障机制,即社会冲突的解决机制和资源的增益机制。具体而言,立法是对利益的分配,兼及资源增益的决定;司法专属于冲突的解决;行政则既是资源增益机制,又是冲突的解决机制。     

宁波诺丁汉大学中国文化课专题教学研究

摘要：专题教学因其有助于使教材体系向教学体系充分转化、提高课堂教学针对性、增加课堂教学感染力而成为当前高校思政 课程教学改革的一种方向。宁波诺丁汉大学作为中外合作办学模式的先行者,在思政理论课中积极导入专题教学模式,对课 程架构、教学过程、考核机制进行了富有成效的创新探索,并对教学实践中的师资配备、专题设计、内容衔接等方面提出了进一 步改进的方案,对高校思政教学改革具有一定的参考借鉴价值     

胡塞尔的反心理主义逻辑观及其困境

胡塞尔对心理主义的批判精彩地回答了当时逻辑学界普遍关注的问题,可以说是最成功的反心理主义。在其批判以后,逻辑学中的心理主义被认为归入"历史档案"。但本文以为其批判在某些方面还是有待考量的。他试图摆脱主观唯心主义的束缚,却不自觉地以主观唯心主义的态度宣扬了客观唯心主义理念论;另外,他孤立地认识并且严格地划分了本质领域与经验领域、理念领域与事实领域以及绝对性与相对性等概念。认知科学和认知逻辑的建立使逻辑学和心理学重新统一,并终结了心理主义和逻辑主义的历史。     

Scheduling two job families on a single machine with two competitive agents

We consider the scheduling problems arising when two agents, each with a family of jobs, compete to perform their respective jobs on a single machine. A setup time is needed for a job if it is the first job to be processed on the machine or its processing on the machine follows a job that belongs to another family. Each agent wants to minimize a certain cost function, which depends on the completion times of its jobs only. The aim is to find a schedule for all the jobs of the two agents that minimizes the objective of one agent while keeping the objective of the other agent being bounded by a fixed value \(Q\). Polynomial-time and pseudo-polynomial-time algorithms are designed to solve the problem involving various combinations of regular scheduling objective functions.     

产出表的编制方法

产出表的编制方法戚少成,王海波,杨红城产出表或制造矩阵简称Ｖ表,它是投入产出表的一张附表,在投入产出表中占有十分重要的地位,起着十分重要的作用。利用Ｖ表与Ｕ表（亦称投入表或消耗矩阵）,采用间接推导法可以编制投入产出表;通过Ｖ表计算出来的各种系数可以反...     

证券投资基金绩效评价方法与实证研究

传统的基金绩效评价方法具有诸多局限性,而DEA方法克服了传统评价方法因市场组合选择不同和无风险收益率确定不当而带来的评估结果失真的问题,从而提高了基金绩效评价的科学性和准确性。运用DEA方法对中国22支封闭式基金2000年至2002年间的相对投资绩效进行的实证分析,结果表明,在中国目前的证券市场环境下,多数基金的运作处于无效状态,基金绩效不存在明显的持续性和规模效应,不同投资风格的基金绩效也没有显著的差异。     

灾难的历史研究

在灾难的人类学研究中,历史的角度具有关联性。历史分析可以揭示出灾难以及人类生境脆弱性后面的生态、经济、社会结构和意识形态等多方面的线索。灾难自身也具有启示性,它将过去与现在联结起来。通过对长期的历史记载的研究发现在墨西哥的生态环境中,干旱、农业灾害和食品危机显现出周期性。从历史的角度进行灾难研究可以对社会现实提出批评和校正。