东亚合作与中日两国的政策选择

东亚区域一体化的进程、体制与前景,在根本上将取决于中日两国这个主体合作的快慢与成败.经济理论上的可行性,并没有消除现实合作中的政治障碍,因为地区一体化本身,与其说是一个经济过程,更是一个政治合作的过程.日本方面虽意见存在分歧,但鉴于对华的不信任、警戒或威胁感,加之一贯重视美国的因素,其对东亚合作的快速推进和高度一体化持消极态度.面对地区合作的进程,中日两国需要明确认识、调整心理状态,树立责任意识,以发展的眼光来构建两国的战略合作关系,而在现实的合作领域、途径及条件上,双方皆应切实从自身做起.     

东亚现行汇率制度透视及协调路径分析

1997年东亚金融危机之前,东亚经济体的汇率制度主要是采用盯住美元.危机以来,汇率制度仍然没有改变.害怕浮动和原罪论对这种倾向作出了代表性的解释,但东亚现行的汇率制度确实暴露出许多问题.东亚进行汇率协调的最重要的目标是减少汇率的大幅波动和降低制度成本.为了建立信息透明、相互信任和互助的汇率协调机制,东亚国家和地区应该在现有的清迈协议的基础上增加双边互换规模;加快建立和扩充东亚国家和地区的外汇储备库;在此基础上建立亚洲货币基金组织(AMF),提高东亚经济抵抗危机的能力.同时,大力发展亚洲证券市场,提高东亚货币在国际信贷、投资中的地位.使得东亚经济体最优的汇率选择机制从当前盯住美元转向真正的盯住一篮子的汇率制度安排.     

近50年国内逻辑研究的一个重要侧面--读《马佩文集》

马佩(1929-)先生是我国逻辑学界颇有影响的老一辈学者之一,有逻辑界"三马之一"的称号①.他历任中国逻辑学会理事,逻辑与语言专业委员会副理事长、常务理事,辩证逻辑专业委员会常务理事,形式逻辑专业委员会理事,河南省逻辑学会会长.     

忠贞隐忍的牺牲品——悲剧女性苔丝狄蒙娜之性格分析

《奥赛罗》所讲述的是一个爱与嫉妒最终导致毁灭的故事。剧本前半部分和后半部分中的苔丝狄蒙娜的性格看似互相矛盾（前半部分独立自信,后半部分懦弱隐忍）,实际上是互相关联,对立统一的。在物欲横流的世俗社会中,她的爱情显然不被接受,她的勇敢反叛,以及软弱单纯,最终促成了她的悲惨结局。     

Two new estimators for the proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple test

In multiple hypothesis test, an important problem is estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses. Existing methods are mainly based on the p-values of the single tests. In this paper, we propose two new estimations for this proportion. One is a natural extension of the commonly used methods based on p-values and the other is based on a mixed distribution. Simulations show that the first method is comparable with existing methods and performs better under some cases. And the method based on a mixed distribution can get accurate estimators even if the variance of data is large or the difference between the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis is very small.     

THEORIES OF RISK: TESTING INVESTOR BEHAVIOR ON THE TAIWAN STOCK AND STOCK INDEX FUTURES MARKETS

This article considers four utility functions—concave, convex, S‐shaped, and reverse S‐shaped—to analyze the behavior of different types of investors on the Taiwan stock index and its corresponding index futures. Using stochastic dominance (SD) rules, we show that the existence of all four investor types is plausible. Risk averters prefer spot to futures, whereas risk seekers prefer futures to spot. Investors with S‐shaped utility functions prefer spot (futures) to futures (spot) when markets move upward (downward). Investors with reverse S‐shaped utility functions prefer futures (spot) to spot (futures) when markets move upward (downward). We show that both spot and futures markets can exist when only risk averters are present, but futures can dominate spot only if there is some risk‐seeking behavior. These results are robust with respect to subperiods, spot returns including dividends, and diversification. (JEL C14, G12, G15)     

上海经济社会发展与养老服务事业:挑战与对策

着眼于经济社会发展与养老服务事业之间的关系,应从经济增长速度减缓、外来人口迅速增加、经济结构转型升级、城市空间功能调整等方面,探讨上海当前及今后一段时期养老服务所面临的主要挑战与问题。上海需要在政府引导下着力构建和完善政府、市场、社会多方参与、分工合作的养老服务体系,具体包括促进养老公共资源配置的均衡化、大力发展老年服务产业、推进不同层次养老保障制度之间的有效衔接、积极提高上海养老服务的社会化水平等。     

教师专业化途径浅析

本文阐释教师专业化的定义及其重要意义,分析教师专业化的实现途径。     

战略导向的概念、先行因素及其绩效影响机制研究综述

在对现有文献进行梳理和回顾的基础上,系统地剖析并界定了战略导向的内涵,探讨了战略导向的类型,并解释了战略导向的先行因素及其对组织绩效产生影响的机制.最后,对战略导向相关研究的未来方向进行了展望.     

Quality Risk Ratings in Global Supply Chains

Extended enterprises face many challenges in managing the product quality of their suppliers. Consequently characterizing the quality risk posed by value‐chain partners has become increasingly important. There have been several recent efforts to develop frameworks for rating the quality risk posed by suppliers. We develop an analytical model to examine the impact of such quality ratings on suppliers, manufacturers, and social welfare. While it might seem that quality ratings would benefit high‐quality suppliers and hurt low‐quality suppliers, we show that this is not always the case. We find that such quality ratings can hurt both types of suppliers or benefit both, depending on the market conditions. We also find that quality ratings do not always benefit the most demanding manufacturers who desire high‐quality suppliers. Finally, we find that social welfare is not always improved by risk ratings. These results suggest that public policy initiatives addressing risk ratings must be carefully considered.