Pre-arrest drug use and associated risk factors among incarcerated offenders in China

ABSTRACT

Past research has consistently reported a higher rate of drug use before arrest among incarcerated inmates than that of the general population. However, there is a lack of either qualitative or quantitative research on this topic under the Chinese setting. Drawing upon survey data collected from 1,518 inmates in a Chinese province, this study attempts to fill in the research gap by assessing the connection between risk factors associated with pre-arrest use. Roughly a quarter of all inmates in the sample had the experience of drug use before arrest. Regression analysis suggested that impulsivity, volatile temper, and perceived prevalence of drug use in neighborhood were significantly related to drug use among inmates. Two control variables include offense type and stable job, were also found to be significant predictors of drug use. Implications for research and policy were highlighted in the end.     

环境分权对经济高质量发展的影响研究

本文通过构建经济高质量发展评价指标体系并对其进行测算,运用静态、动态以及空间面板数据模型实证检验了环境分权对经济高质量发展的影响效应。研究发现,环境分权对经济高质量发展的影响呈现出先抑后扬的“U”型特征,并且当前我国环境分权对经济高质量发展的影响依然体现为负向作用。使用工具变量处理内生性问题以及一系列稳健性检验后结论依然成立。传导渠道分析表明,环境分权通过资源错配渠道影响经济高质量发展,并且环境分权对经济高质量发展的影响还具有地区异质性、结构异质性等。本文的研究结论有助于厘清环境分权对经济高质量发展的影响效应,为调整及优化环境分权制度安排提供了重要的政策指引和借鉴。     

城乡居民收入满意度的比较分析及启示--基于合肥市的调研数据

伴随着城乡居民收入的稳步快速增长，城乡间收入差距增大的现象也日渐显现，通过对合肥市城乡居民收入状况的满意程度进行问卷调查，经过数据处理，分析和比较了居民对于城乡收入绝对值和相对值的满意程度，在此基础上，从理论层面归纳合肥市收入分配存在的问题。     

On approximate likelihood inference in a poisson mixed model

A two-step estimation approach is proposed for the fixed-effect parameters, random effects and their variance σ² of a Poisson mixed model. In the first step, it is proposed to construct a small σ²-based approximate likelihood function of the data and utilize this function to estimate the fixed-effect parameters and σ². In the second step, the random effects are estimated by minimizing their posterior mean squared error. Methods of Waclawiw and Liang (1993) based on so-called Stein-type estimating functions and of Breslow and Clayton (1993) based on penalized quasilikelihood are compared with the proposed likelihood method. The results of a simulation study on the performance of all three approaches are reported.     

扶贫励志教育的长效机制研究

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Issues for stratified randomization based on a factor derived from a continuous baseline variable

Stratified randomization based on the baseline value of the primary analysis variable is common in clinical trial design. We illustrate from a theoretical viewpoint the advantage of such a stratified randomization to achieve balance of the baseline covariate. We also conclude that the estimator for the treatment effect is consistent when including both the continuous baseline covariate and the stratification factor derived from the baseline covariate. In addition, the analysis of covariance model including both the continuous covariate and the stratification factor is asymptotically no less efficient than including either only the continuous baseline value or only the stratification factor. We recommend that the continuous baseline covariate should generally be included in the analysis model. The corresponding stratification factor may also be included in the analysis model if one is not confident that the relationship between the baseline covariate and the response variable is linear. In spite of the above recommendation, one should always carefully examine relevant historical data to pre-specify the most appropriate analysis model for a perspective study.     

中国二战电影与反思“二战”的距离有多远

中国二战题材电影有三种面相:"英雄传奇类抗战电影"、"回归历史的抗战电影"、"反思类二战电影".传奇类过强而反思类不足是中国二战题材电影的特点.欧美国家的二战电影取得了反法西斯的丰硕成果,而我国导演反思"二战"的视角还不到位.只有揭露日本军国主义的法西斯本质,并从根本上揭示其形成法西斯观念的内在原因,才能触及"二战"的本质从而达到反思战争的目的.抗战-反法西斯-反战,是认识这场战争的三个有序过程,既切合人们对"二战"历史的认识规律,又符合一般观众思想运行的内在逻辑.对于中国观众的接受心理来说,"反法西斯"环节尤其重要.     

出口对产业结构升级的影响分析——基于我国可比价投入产出表的实证研究

文章利用投入产出模型,从理论上说明随着经济增长以及收入的提高,需求结构不断变化确实是引起产业结构变化的原因,并将需求结构分解为消费结构、投资结构和出口结构。同时分析我国近20年来出口结构的变化以及产业结构变化的规律,利用给出结构变动的测算方法并结合1987年到2005年的可比价投入产出表说明出口结构变化对产业结构变化的影响是最大的,同时给出出口结构的变化情况。     

江西航空制造业的支柱产业地位及其发展新机遇分析

随着新发展战略的实施,我国航空业步入一个全新时代,航空制造业呈现出新动态。江西航空制造业的特征和比较优势使得航空制造业作为江西支柱产业具有一定必然性,这也为新形势下江西航空制造业迎来了四大发展机遇。     

炎帝出生地新说——炎帝故里在会同

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