Model diagnostics for marginal regression analysis of correlated binary data

We propose several diagnostic methods for checking the adequacy of marginal regression models for analyzing correlated binary data. We use a parametric marginal model based on latent variables and derive the projection (hat) matrix, Cook's distance, various residuals and Mahalanobis distance between the observed binary responses and the estimated probabilities for a cluster. Emphasized are several graphical methods including the simulated Q-Q plot, the half-normal probability plot with a simulated envelope, and the partial residual plot. The methods are illustrated with a real life example.     

Directional mixture models and optimal estimation of the mixing density

The authors develop consistent nonparametric estimation techniques for the directional mixing density. Classical spherical harmonics are used to adapt Euclidean techniques to this directional environment. Minimax rates of convergence are obtained for rotation ally invariant densities verifying various smoothness conditions. It is found that the differences in smoothness between the Laplace, the Gaussian and the von Mises‐Fisher distributions lead to contrasting inferential conclusions.     

韩国的金融政策与金融危机及对我国的警示

金融危机的爆发对经济发展的危害是巨大的,受这次金融风暴直接冲击的国家,其经济实力普遍倒退７至１０年。其中韩国因货币贬值五成,其经济规模已由世界排名第１２位降至第１７位,人均国民生产总值由１９９６年的１０５４８美元降至目前的６６６４美元,经济实力倒退了...     

张栻《论语解》的学风旨趣与思想意蕴

张栻对二程推崇备至,书中大量引述和发挥二程之言,宗奉二程的特点十分明显。同时,张栻对《论语》进行了创造性的阐释,表现出专注于阐发义理、追求义理连贯和意义圆通的特色。再者,《论语解》是张栻依托《论语》而大量发挥其理学思想的著作。在解说过程中,张栻将其理学观念熔铸于《论语》文本之中,赋予《论语》以鲜明的理学色彩。     

A modified LGB method for detecting significant effects based on a half-normal probability plot

In analyzing data from unreplicated factorial designs, the half-normal probability plot is commonly used to screen for the ‘vital few’ effects. Recently, many formal methods have been proposed to overcome the subjectivity of this plot. Lawson (1998) (hereafter denoted as LGB) suggested a hybrid method based on the half-normal probability plot, which is a blend of Lenth (1989) and Loh (1992) method. The method consists of fitting a simple least squares line to the inliers, which are determined by the Lenth method. The effects exceeding the prediction limits based on the fitted line are candidates for the vital few effects. To improve the accuracy of partitioning the effects into inliers and outliers, we propose a modified LGB method (hereafter denoted as the Mod_LGB method), in which more outliers can be classified by using both the Carling’s modification of the box plot (Carling, 2000) and Lenth method. If no outlier exists or there is a wide range in the inliers as determined by the Lenth method, more outliers can be found by the Carling method. A simulation study is conducted in unreplicated $2^4$ designs with the number of active effects ranging from 1 to 6 to compare the efficiency of the Lenth method, original LGB methods, and the proposed modified version of the LGB method.     

解构的价值与解构主义美学思想

作为解构主义美学的核心观念．解构指向的是一种本体性的、生生不息的、蕴含着极大颠覆性与创造性的内驱力。解构产生于结构成为结构的那一刻，是对他者性召唤的肯定性应答，是对结构等级制秩序的颠覆。解构在解放他者的同时也解放了他者的对立面，它不知疲倦地从一种结构奔向另一种全新的结构，以致无穷。解构性事件就是这从一个结构转向另一个结构的关节点。解构特有的自由、民主精神使得解构主义美学成为一种批判的理论、一种肯定的理论，同时它还是一种辩证法。     

加强我国艾滋病防治督导与评估能力建设的思考

随着艾滋病防治督导与评估重要性的凸显,我国也积极努力地尝试建立国家综合协调的艾滋病防治督导与评估体系。能力建设是督导与评估工作的基础和前提,本文围绕督导与评估能力建设的概念和目标,提出加强能力建设的建议和方向。     

“三合一”型政府管理模式:现实与理论的全景式展示

建设法治型政府、责任型政府和服务型政府是我国政府进行政府改革的有益尝试,是用新的价值取向和路径选择对传统政府管理模式进行根本性或方向性的调整.本文将对这三种政府管理模式作一番现实考量和理论分析,以求正确处理好它们之间的关系,努力彰显出它们在目前我国市场经济发展水平和社会整体发展水平中的本色和个性,并使其相辅相成、相互促进,塑造"三合一"型政府管理模式,可以实现社会理想的崇高意蕴,契合"和谐社会"的构建,这对促进我国经济社会协调发展和全面进步,具有重大的理论和实践意义.     

工业、知识革命与现代民族素质--民族素质研究之二

本文在论述工业革命和知识革命过程的基础上,简要介绍了现代民族素质的发展状况.