Farming Systems and Rural Out‐Migration in Nang Rong,Thailand, and Chitwan Valley,Nepal

Using data from two postfrontier rural settings, Nang Rong, Thailand (N = 2,538), and Chitwan Valley, Nepal (N = 876), this article examines agricultural push factors determining the out‐migration of young people age 15 to 19. We focus on different dimensions of migration, including distance and duration. Our study examines a wide array of agricultural determinants, each with its own potential effect on migration. These determinants include land tenure, crop portfolios, animal husbandry activities, and use of farm inputs. We link these proximal causes to two underlying mechanisms: risk and amenities. We examine these determinants using separate models across settings. Our results indicate that agricultural factors are significant determinants of migration in both contexts. However, different factors operate in different settings, indicating the importance of contextual variation in explaining the manner in which risks and amenities influence agricultural determinants of migration.     

Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.     

The Changing Institutional Context of Low Fertility

Using data for 1960–97 for 22 low fertility countries, we document a dramatic change in the association of fertility levels to women's levels of labor force participation. Until the 1980s, this association had been strongly negative. However, during the 1980s itbecame positive, and since 1990 strongly positive. We also document an emerging positive association of the country-level total fertility ratio (TFR) and nonmarital ratio (e.g., the proportion of births to unmarried women). We argue that these transformed associations reflect societal level responses that, in some contexts, have eased the incompatibility between mother and worker roles, and loosened the link betweenmarriage and childbearing. These arguments imply that societal responses to mother/worker incompatibility exert substantial influence on fertility levels in low fertility countries.     

The timing of entry into motherhood in Asia: A comparative perspective

Abstract This paper examines the determinants of age at first birth from an explicitly comparative perspective in the following Asian societies: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Thailand. The key structural variables have the same (or similar) effects in each of the groups examined. Education through primary school and beyond has a strong delaying effect on age at first birth in all eight populations. Difference of rural-urban origin does not affect the timing of motherhood in any of these societies. We also find a remarkably strong effect of shared cultural heritage. All the Confucian groups tend to behave similarly, as do the Muslim and Hindu groups.     

Geographic information systems, spatial network analysis, and contraceptive choice

How does family planning accessibility affect contraceptive choice? In this paper we use techniques of spatial analysis to develop measures of family planning accessibility, and evaluate the effects of these geographically derived measures in a multilevel statistical model of temporary method choice in Nang Rong, Thailand. In our analyses we combine spatial data obtained from maps and Global Positioning System (GPS) readings with sociodemographic data from surveys and administrative records. The new measures reveal (1) important travel time effects even when family planning outlets are close by; (2) independent effects of road composition; (3) the relevance of alternative sources of family planning supply; and (4) the importance of the local history of program placement.     

Intermediate variables and educational differentials in fertility in Korea and the Philippines

This analysis compares the effects of contraceptive use and infant and fetal mortality on the pace offertility in Korea and the Philippines and explores the mediating effects of these intermediate variables on educational differentials in childspacing. For birth intervals initiated in a recent period before a sample survey, second, third and higher-order intervals are examined. Transitions within successive segments of interval exposure (q _xvalues) are examined rather than cumulative transitions (1 - l _xvalues). This methodological choice is substantively important because breastfeeding should primarily affect early segments of exposure and because it allows empirical examination of the timing of the effects of other variables such as contraceptive use. Further, this choice allows multivariate analysis within the structure of the life-table perspective. The results show substantial differences in patterns between Korea and the Philippines, indicate clearly the effect of each intermediate variable, and illustrate how educational differentials in fertility are affected by contraception and infant and fetal mortality.     

Nontraditional Family‐Related Attitudes in Japan: Macro and Micro Determinants

Attitudinal data are commonly used to measure values, which in turn represent moral doctrines that are resistant to change and are the foundation for societal norms. This article examines changes in the attitudinal climate in Japan. Three national surveys (1994, 2000, and 2009) are used to examine a range of attitudes that measure a) the centrality of marriage and childbearing, b) nontraditional family behaviors, and c) gender roles in the work and family spheres. There is strong evidence of movement toward less‐traditional attitudes during 1994–2000, followed by limited change in the 2000s. Period factors were paramount in the 1990s. Across the board, women hold less‐traditional attitudes than men, and this difference has increased over time. Both engaging in nontraditional family behaviors (being married but remaining childless) and knowing someone who has engaged in nontraditional family behaviors (cohabitation) causally lead to holding nontraditional attitudes, suggesting mechanisms whereby changes in individual behavior can lead to changes in societal values.     

Child-care availability and fertility in Norway

The child-care and fertility hypothesis has been in the literature for a long time and is straightforward: As child care becomes more available, affordable, and acceptable, the antinatalist effects of increased female educational attainment and work opportunities decrease. As an increasing number of countries express concern about low fertility, the child-care and fertility hypothesis takes on increased importance. Yet data and statistical limitations have heretofore limited empirical tests of the hypothesis. Using rich longitudinal data and appropriate statistical methodology, We show that increased availability of child care increases completed fertility. Moreover, this positive effect of child-care availability is found at every parity transition. We discuss the generalizability of these results to other settings and their broader importance for understanding variation and trends in low fertility.     

Measuring housing quality in the absence of a monetized real estate market

Measuring housing quality or value or both has been a weak component of demographic and development research in less developed countries that lack an active real estate (housing) market. We describe a new method based on a standardized subjective rating process. It is designed to be used in settings that do not have an active, monetized housing market. The method is applied in an ongoing longitudinal study in north-east Thailand and could be straightforwardly used in many other settings. We develop a conceptual model of the process whereby households come to reside in high-quality or low-quality housing units. We use this theoretical model in conjunction with longitudinal data to show that the new method of measuring housing quality behaves as theoretically expected, thus providing evidence of face validity.     

Child Spacing in the Philippines: The Effect of Current Characteristics and Rural Development

In this study the effects of characteristics current at the beginning of the birth interval on the time elapsing before the next birth are examined. The child-spacing process is viewed as affected by time-varying and fixed characteristics of the community, household, and individual. In the model on which the empirical research is based sociological and economic antecedents are used. The study is based on data from two panels of the Bicol Multipurpose Survey collected in 1978 and 1983. These furnish detailed histories of pregnancy and contraception, together with an extensive set of socio-economic data. Detailed information on services and facilities available in each of the 100 sample communities is also available. Because of the large rural development programme introduced in various sub-areas of the Bicol region, substantial changes in the rural infrastructure and in availability of health and family planning facilities and services occurred between 1976 and 1980, the period on which the analysis is focused. Our results clearly show that current characteristics at the individual, household, and community levels have significant and interpretable effects on the lengths of birth intervals.