大学生心理危机的识别与预警

心理危机的识别与预警既是预防心理危机发生的重要策略，也是对危机当事人和相关人进行生命教育和促进生命成长的重要机会。心理危机产生的原因具有复杂性，发生过程具有阶段性，危机现象具有特殊性，危机爆发具有极端性，危机发生也具有一定规律性。因此，在进行生命教育过程中，需要关注不同类别的生命个体、不同阶段的生命现象、处在规律中的独特生命个体，同时要注意识别生命危机信号和生命求救信号。     

金融资产的动态非线性相关:一个新的模型

基于Kendall’sτ秩相关系数的优越性和定义,本文提出了新的具有明确经济意义的动态条件相关copula模型,将常用的Gaussian、Clayton和Gumbel函数统一根据该演化方程实现动态化,构造出三种Kendall’sτ动态条件相关copula模型,可用于刻画不同的相关模式。这些模型不仅参数少、容易估计,避免了现有动态条件相关copula模型构建方法各异导致的在实证中不利于比较的缺点,而且能够进行多步向前预测,有效地减少了进行样本外预测时的计算量,从而为刻画时变、非线性、非对称性和尾部相关等复杂的动态相关模式提供了新方法。     

长安出土《统毗伽可贺敦延陁墓志》考释

《统毗伽可贺敦延陁墓志》出土于长安昭陵,为李思摩妻子延陁氏的墓志.延陁氏乃薛延陀部族酋长之胄,后嫁于突厥可汗所出阿史那思摩.630年,延陁氏随思摩降唐,被安置在夏州一带,在故定襄城、长安等处亦有居所.作为突厥可汗的夫人,延陁氏亲历了隋末至唐初漠北地区的风云变幻,见证了突厥汗国和薛延陀汗国兴衰更替,这些内容在《统毗伽可贺敦延陁墓志》中多有反映,可与《李思摩墓志》相表里.该墓志为深入研究薛延陀部族的历史和贞观时期的北疆民族关系提供了重要的新证据.     

Composite quantile regression for massive datasets

Analysis of massive datasets is challenging owing to limitations of computer primary memory. Composite quantile regression (CQR) is a robust and efficient estimation method. In this paper, we extend CQR to massive datasets and propose a divide-and-conquer CQR method. The basic idea is to split the entire dataset into several blocks, applying the CQR method for data in each block, and finally combining these regression results via weighted average. The proposed approach significantly reduces the required amount of primary memory, and the resulting estimate will be as efficient as if the entire data set is analysed simultaneously. Moreover, to improve the efficiency of CQR, we propose a weighted CQR estimation approach. To achieve sparsity with high-dimensional covariates, we develop a variable selection procedure to select significant parametric components and prove the method possessing the oracle property. Both simulations and data analysis are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods.     

美国联邦官僚系统的自主性和政治控制

在美国的多元政治体制下,其联邦官僚系统保持着一定程度的自主性。与之同时,又接受着来自国会、总统和社会利益集团等多种政治主体的影响和控制,形成"一仆二主"乃至"一仆多主"的现象。基于美国的民主原则,美国联邦官僚系统必须回应来自政治系统的意愿和利益要求,接受其监督,同时凭借自身的专业技术能力及其他职业性资源,又保持着相对独立性,呈现出美国政治中特有的政治行政关系结构和特征。     

民国时期的社会转型、政权建设与族群关系

中华民国时期是中国历史中最复杂和最动荡的时代。贯穿民国38年历史的有三条主线。第一条主线是中国各族人民坚持反对帝国主义侵略的斗争;第二条主线是中华民国下属各民族维护国家统一、与帝国主义支持的国内分裂势力的斗争。这两条主线是晚清"救亡图存"斗争的延续。第三条主线是探索如何实现国家体制的政治转型,实现从"多元型帝国"向现代"民族国家"的体制过渡和国民思想过渡。在整个民国期间,帝国主义别有用心地向中国各族群输入"民族"意识,并扶植代理人。民国历史中,最核心的利益是救国图存,捍卫中华民族的独立和领土完整。在评价民国所有的历史人物时,这是一条最根本的底线。     

国际人力资源社会保障发展趋势

1.全球就业面临多重挑战。2.劳动力市场的结构性问题:(1)劳动力供给增长减缓,部分原因是许多国家人口老龄化;(2)各类技能需求发生重大转变,高技能人才需求增加;(3)持续存在的收入不平等。3.欧美发达国家的社会保障制度深受金融危机影响,许多高收入国家压缩社保待遇。而许多中等收入国家大胆扩展其社会保障体系,有力地促进了国内需求拉动型的经济增长,如中国、巴西等。4.实施更加积极社会保障政策深入人心。包括预防和早期干预,旨在减少社会风险以及由此产生的对社会保障津贴的需求,促进劳动者就业和重返劳动力市场,减少贫困和不平等状况。5.社保水平充足性与可持续性之间的平衡需要妥善对待。6.很多新兴和发展中经济体平均实际工资增速大于发达经济体。世界各地区的工资发展趋势受到该地区中较大经济体的影响。亚洲的平均工资增长主要由中国工资增长驱动。7.各国劳动收入份额普遍处于下降态势。8.全球收入不平等处于上升趋势。9.全球人力资源社会保障发展的经验与启示:(1)必须重视就业增长与经济增长的关系;(2)必须把人力资源社会保障置于经济社会发展框架中认识和把握;(3)必须更加重视社会保障功能的发挥。     

FAIR ALLOCATION WHEN PLAYERS' PREFERENCES ARE UNKNOWN

Suppose an arbitrator needs to allocate an asset among two players, whose claims on the asset are incompatible. The allocation outcome is said to be fair if the arbitrator awards an outcome that brings the same utility payoff to the two players whenever the two players' claims are symmetric and the allocation set is symmetric. In conjunction with other natural axioms, this fairness requirement implies a unique allocation outcome for any claims problem. We propose a mechanism which can be used by the arbitrator to implement this allocation outcome, even when the players' preferences are unknown to the arbitrator. (JEL C78, D63, J52)     

Contents of heavy metals in arable soils and birth defect risks in Shanxi, China: a small area level geographic study

The burgeoning demands of China’s urbanization and industrial development put pressure on the resources of the entire country and have direct and indirect effects on the health of individuals, at times in areas far removed from cities themselves. Current evidence suggests that heavy metal pollution in soil, a common by-product of coal mining and other industrial activities, may be linked to risk of birth defects. We examine this hypothesis using small area level data including soil samples and detailed birth records from 2002 to 2004 from 97 villages in Shanxi province, a heavy coal-mining region. We find that soils containing arsenic, lead, and nickel are significantly correlated with the incidence of birth defects. In particular, we find a strong positive dose-dependent association of birth defects with lead, a moderate positive effect with arsenic, and a dose-dependent negative association with nickel. These results are consistent with the postulated link between arsenic and lead and human birth defects, but raise questions about the effects of nickel in this context. China’s rapid urbanization underscores the need for closer attention to the relationship between the health and the environment.     

迪尔凯姆和韦伯关于"社会"解释范式之比较

在以往的研究中,大多数学者都是从迪尔凯姆和韦伯解释社会所依赖的路径和视角之不同来看待他们在方法论上的差异.而笔者认为,尽管迪尔凯姆和韦伯在社会学的整体方法论上迥然不同而导致各自解释"社会"的范式也有明显差异,但他们终因"社会学"的学术范畴走到一起.因此,本文拟在分析二者差异的基础上进一步探讨沟通二者的桥梁,为避免新时期社会学方法论走向两个极端提供一种理论上的思考.