艺术设计专业在线学习反馈机制探究

目前,在线学习对传统的线下学习模式产生极大冲击,因而研究在线学习为主的新型学习方式迫在眉睫.相较于文、理科专业的上课-习题的反馈机制,艺术设计专业学生面对同一知识点展开的问题思考,在设计创作中有不同的想象或联想表现形式,这意味着最佳学习活动适合并实践为一对一的互动方式.艺术设计专业的线下学习具备直观性和即时性,学习...     

基于灰色关联的西部煤炭产业集中度影响因素研究

在概述西部原煤产量及其矿井类型与数量变化趋势的基础上,利用2003-2010年相关时序数据测度了西部煤炭产业在这一时期的集中度。随后,运用灰色关联理论,分析了期初集中度、生产扩张能力、进入壁垒、市场容量等相关因素与西部煤炭产业集中度的灰色关联程度。研究表明:期初集中度与市场容量是影响西部煤炭产业集中度诸多因素中最为重要的两个因素。在进一步分析产生这一结果深层原因的基础上,提出了提高西部煤炭产业集中度的政策建议。     

Empirical Analysis of Interval-Censored Failure Time Data with Linear Transformation Models

Interval-censored data naturally arise in many studies. For their regression analysis, many approaches have been proposed under various models and for most of them, the inference is carried out based on the asymptotic normality. In particular, Zhang et al. (2005) discussed the procedure under the linear transformation model. It is well-known that the symmetric property implied by the normal distribution may not be appropriate sometimes. Also the method could underestimate the variance of estimated parameters. This paper proposes an empirical likelihood-based procedure for the problem. Simulation and the analysis of a real data set are conducted to assess the performance of the procedure.     

A Multiple Imputation Approach to the Analysis of Current Status Data with the Additive Hazards Model

This article discusses regression analysis of current status data, which occur in many fields including cross-sectional studies, demographical investigations, and tumorigenicity experiments (Keiding, 1991 Keiding , N. ( 1991 ). Age-specific incidence and prevalence: a statistical perspective (with discussion) . J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. A 154 : 371 – 412 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Sun 2006 Sun , J. ( 2006 ). The Statistical Analysis of Interval-Censored Failure Time Data . New York : Springer-Verlag . [Google Scholar]). For the problem, we focus on the situation where the survival time of interest can be described by the additive hazards model and a multiple imputation approach is presented for inference. A major advantage of the approach is its simplicity and it can be easily implemented by using the existing software packages for right-censored failure time data. Extensive simulation studies are conducted and indicate that the approach performs well for practical situations and is comparable to the existing methods. The methodology is applied to a set of current status data arising from a tumorigenicity experiment and the model checking is discussed.     

Nonparametric estimation of waiting time distributions in a Markov model based on current status data

We construct nonparametric estimators of state waiting time distribution functions in a Markov multistate model using current status data. This is a particularly difficult problem since neither the entry nor the exit times of a given state are directly observed. These estimators are obtained, using the Markov property, from estimators of counting processes of state entry and exit times, as well as, the size of “at risk” sets of state entry and transitions out of that state. Consistency of our estimators is established. Finite-sample behavior of our estimators is studied by simulation, in which we show that our estimators based on current status data compare well with those based on complete data. We also illustrate our method using a pubertal development data set obtained from the NHANES III [1997. NHANES III Reference Manuals and Reports (CD-ROM). Analytic and Reporting Guidelines: The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–94). National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD] study.     

论话语音图的传递

话语参与者的共有知识和会话原则是话语意图得以有效传递的前提和保障。话语意图的传递分两步一是说者在意图的控制并指导下说出话语;二是听者在对该话语进行理解时领会说者的意图。     

形象化板书的一点尝试

学生在学习语文的时候,总觉得比起其他学科来,语文要“虚”得多。这“虚”的意思就是说语文的知识点不如其他学科那么实在,一堂课下来,有种说不出什么的感觉。的确,语文跟其他学科不一样。有的学科一节课上完,板书上的内容就是本节课的要点,而语文要做到这一点是很不容易的＿＿因为它毕竟比其他学科显得形象化一些、美一些,如果也像有的学科那样利用板书在黑板上以纯文字的形式罗列知识点的话,语文便变得非常枯燥了,学生也不容易理解和感悟。怎样能让学生既明确一篇文章的特色、又不至于割裂文章、影响语文的美感呢？我们想到了形…     

美国社会工作伦理守则:历史经验与文本解读

社会工作伦理作为社会工作的独特领域,所探究的是社会工作的价值和信仰,以及将之践行出来的一套指南和规范。美国社会工作者伦理守则无疑是全球社会工作界最值得分析和探究的文本之一,文章通过对美国社会工作者伦理守则的历史回顾及相关文本的解读,以期对建构符合中国本土意义的社会工作伦理守则有所启迪。文章建议中国社会工作的伦理追求本土化的路径,在全球社会工作伦理的共同架构下,兼顾中国社会工作伦理的特殊面向。      

面向东盟的西南省份物流基础设施建设研究

中国与东盟地区的进出口贸易额自2001年以来一直保持每年20%以上的增长速度,这对区域内的物流基础设施建设提出了更高的要求。本文利用显性比较优势指数找出东盟主要国家出口的优势产品,并建立数学模型预测中国-东盟自由贸易区的物流需求量,接着以物流结点和物流通道这两个因素为重点,结合区域经济学里的增长极理论和经济辐射理论,对在云南和广西两省,建立相应的物流结点以及物流通道等相关问题,提出了政策性的建议。