中国大陆及周边股市动态ES风险传导关系效应研究

探索金融市场极端风险传导机理一直是政府管理当局、投资者关注的焦点。本文针对股市中存在的典型事实及股市损失分布复杂性特点,运用ARMA-GJR对股市指数条件损失进行建模分析,进而运用EVT对标准残差的极值尾部建模估计出股市极端风险ES,然后运用Granger-Causality检验技术,分别考察两个市场间极端风险ES的传导关系。实证结果表明:在整个样本期间,中国大陆沪深股市极端风险具有双向传导关系,香港市场向深市传导风险,而深市不能向香港传导风险,东京市场与香港市场、香港与台湾市场具有双向传导关系;而在熊市期间,中国大陆与周边市场极端风险ES传导关系变得更为复杂。     

A Study of Online Auction Sellers’ Intention to Switch Platform: The Case of Yahoo!Kimo Versus Ruten_eBay*

The study of consumers’ switching from one service provider to another has a long tradition in economics, information systems, and marketing. The emergence of electronic commerce presents new challenges in understanding consumers’ switching intentions in the context of e‐commerce in general and online auctions in particular. With the abundance of literature on online auctions, there is a surprising lack of research on auction sellers’ intentions to switch from one online auction platform to another. Using the competition between Yahoo!Kimo and Ruten_eBay, two leading auction platforms in Taiwan, as the backdrop, we developed a research model and collected empirical data based on this real case to study what factors influence auction sellers to switch to a competing service provider. We find that the higher the procedural switching costs, financial switching costs, relational switching costs, site design quality, or interaction quality, the lower the intention of an auction seller to switch to a competing auction service provider. A higher perceived transaction fee, however, leads to a higher switching intention.     

A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk

The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well‐established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site‐specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53–67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32–47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age‐weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25–27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36–66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan‐based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality.     

工商管理学科领域"面向世界科学前沿问题"的凝炼机制探索

科技创新是促进国家发展的动力.要实现科技创新推动国家发展的战略目标,学术研究需要面向世界科学前沿,挑战前沿的科学难题,做出原创成果,实现创新引领.企业是国家实施创新驱动发展战略的主体.工商管理作为研究企业管理的学科,解决好本学科领域"面向世界科学前沿"的研究问题,有助于为我国企业创新提供理论指导,服务国家发展战略.然而,工商管理学科领域如何凝炼"面向世界科学前沿问题"是管理学者和管理实践者长期以来关注但未被解答的问题.本文旨在探索工商管理学科领域"面向世界科学前沿问题"的凝炼机制.借鉴工商管理学科领域59位资深专家的意见,探讨了"面向世界科学前沿问题"的内涵、选题要求、形成方法,并尝试整合出一套具有可操作性的凝炼方案.此外,本文阐述了"并联式"和"串联式"两种具体科学问题提出模式,以期为科研工作者提供一个能够形成聚焦的、对中国管理实践有帮助的、面向世界科学前沿的研究问题的方案.     

区块链技术与企业绩效:公司治理结构的调节作用

当前,我国正在全面迈进数字经济新时代.区块链技术作为数字经济最为重要的基础技术设施之一,正在加速推动新一轮产业变革和数字创新,被越来越多的企业接受和应用.区块链技术对企业绩效的作用机制是什么?针对以上问题,本研究通过倾向得分匹配方法(PSM)选取2014-2019年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,以当年是否引入区块链技术作为公司治理手段为哑变量,通过计量分析研究了区块链技术应用与企业绩效之间的关系,并进一步探索了公司治理结构在区块链技术应用与企业绩效关系间的调节作用.研究发现,区块链技术应用对企业绩效有促进作用;当公司治理结构呈现较高独董比例和较高股权集中度时,区块链技术应用对企业绩效的促进作用得到加强.     

基于1996~2020年文献计量分析的团队冲突管理研究知识图谱与热点趋势研究

以1996~2020年Web of Science核心合集数据库中团队冲突在管理学研究中的文献为研究对象,运用Citespace等可视化科学工具绘制了团队冲突研究关键词共现图谱和战略坐标图,系统分析了团队冲突管理研究内容的内在关联与发展脉络,并绘制了团队冲突管理研究的热点趋势主线框架。研究结果发现:团队内部冲突、信任、绩效、战略性决策是团队冲突管理研究的热点。在未来的研究中,探究不同类型冲突间的转化过程及边界条件是明晰团队冲突结构及作用机制的突破口;结合其他冲突类型及团队生命周期各阶段展开对团队冲突与绩效影响关系的讨论是对团队冲突影响结果的有益探索;辨识高层管理团队成员间的信任障碍问题、虚拟团队中的快速信任机制是信任与冲突关系研究的重点议题;探究不同冲突管理策略组合运用的作用机理是找到冲突解决方案的关键一环。     

移动场景下网络文化消费行为执行意向的影响机制研究

执行意向在行为科学领域发挥着至关重要的预测价值,如何把握网络文化消费者行为规律成为当前热点课题。文章基于执行意向理论,以网络文化消费网民群体为研究对象,探索网络情景下文化消费行为执行意向的影响机制。实证研究结果表明感知价值、参照群体、用户信任与执行意向均存在显著正相关,且感知价值为首要因素,信息质量对执行意向的影响不显著。调节效应分析发现,时间压力在感知价值、信息质量、用户信任对执行意向的影响中均存在调节作用,时间压力在参照群体对执行意向的影响中不存在调节作用。     

绍兴成为中国"黄酒之乡"原因探析

绍兴成为中国"黄酒之乡"的原因有三(一)河姆渡的水稻大面积种植,为绍兴酿酒业的崛起提供了充足的原料,绍兴的酿酒史开端于七千年前的河姆渡文化,绍兴黄酒与河姆渡米酒是一脉相承的;(二)富含多种矿物质的鉴湖水和精湛的酿酒工艺为绍兴黄酒成为极品提供了条件和保障;(三)历代文人雅士的吟唱,使黄酒与文化结合;绍兴师爷和明清商人的南来北往,使绍兴黄酒名扬天下.     

Some quantitative concepts of value and utility from a utilitarian point of view

This paper clarifies and interprets some basic quantitative concepts of value, utility and utility function from a utilitarian point of view. First, I discuss the question as to whether value is objective or subjective. I hold that value is subjective and statistical in nature (although from the various subjective values of a certain object a norm can usually be obtained). Second, I emphasize the distinction between use value and exchange value in relation to utility. Third, I propose a law of diminishing incremental interest, which refers to the incremental (marginal) utility of money. Fourth, I identify the utility of money with the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility. Fifth, I question the necessity of the usual normalization of utility functions and the restricted linear transformation (and the consequent concept of strategic equivalence). Sixth, I discuss in detail the terminal values and utilities of a utility function from a philosophical rather than mathematical point of view, particularly the boundedness of a utility function and the magnitudes of V ₀ and U ₀. Finally, I conclude that, in order to be able to have interpersonal comparisons of utility, utility should have the same dimension as value rather than no dimension, and the normalization problem should be reconsidered in the light of terminal values and utilities.     

Inefficiency of strategy-proof allocation mechanisms in pure exchange economies

In this paper I prove that in the standard model of 2×n (n2) pure exchange economies there is no allocation mechanism that is efficient, non-inversely-dictatorial, and strategy-proof. This strengthens two previous results on this subject by Hurwicz and by Dasgupta, Hammond, and Maskin.I thank Alvin Klevorick, William Thomson, and an anonymous referee of the journal for many helpful comments.