OLIGARCHIES AND DEVELOPMENT IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY: A TALE OF TWO ELITES

This paper studies how comparative advantage and the political elites' endowments shape long‐run performance in economies with imperfect political institutions. The trade regime interacts with industrial policy and regulations on capital mobility in governing capital accumulation. In a capital‐scarce economy, capitalist oligarchs striving for import substitution industrialization (ISI) initially shelter the economy from trade, while promoting industrial policies that promote total factor productivity growth in the manufacturing sector. This gradually shifts the comparative advantage toward manufacturing and renders the economy attractive to foreign investors. Allowing for trade and foreign capital inflows are thus complementary policies that spur growth in the capital oligarchy. By contrast, landed oligarchs in a capital‐scarce economy favor openness to trade at an early stage of development, neglect industrial policies, and block foreign capital to maximize extractable rents. The policy mix causes the economy to stagnate. Consistent with the experiences of South Korea and Argentina in the postwar era, the model predicts that the success of ISI policies depends crucially on the conditions governing the incentives for capital accumulation. (JEL F10, F20, P40, P50, O10, O24)     

Intersectional Approaches in Health‐Risk Research: A Critical Review

The overall aim of this article is to explore how the intersectional approach is used in health‐risk research. The concept has been recognized in health‐risk research since the early 2000s, but not as much as in the broader field of health‐inequality studies. However, in the past 5 years, Social Science and Medicine has published a series of review articles that argue for the necessity of bringing intersectional perspectives to the field of health‐risk studies more generally and quantitative health‐risk research in particular. Asking what it means for health‐risk researchers to practise intersectionality shows the implications of translating a theoretical approach across fields and disciplines. When applying intersectional theory in relation to health‐risks, the theoretical conceptualization of health and risk are often very limited and treated as fixed categories – something that becomes problematic when taken within an intersectional framework. This does not mean that this work is unimportant, but rather that the link between theoretically driven intersectionality and empirical‐focused health research is weak. In order to overcome the dividing lines of health‐risk research and intersectionality, we argue for a new approach that echoes the ‘doing gender’ of gender studies: doing risk.     

Assessing multiple prior models of behaviour under ambiguity

The recent spate of theoretical models of behaviour under ambiguity can be partitioned into two sets: those involving multiple priors and those not involving multiple priors. This paper provides an experimental investigation into the first set. Using an appropriate experimental interface we examine the fitted and predictive power of the various theories. We first estimate subject-by-subject, and then estimate and predict using a mixture model over the contending theories. The individual estimates suggest that 24% of our 149 subjects have behaviour consistent with Expected Utility, 56% with the Smooth Model, 11% with Rank Dependent Expected Utility and 9% with the Alpha Model; these figures are close to the mixing proportions obtained from the mixture estimates where the respective posterior probabilities of each of them being of the various types are 25%, 50%, 20% and 5%; and using the predictions 22%, 53%, 22% and 3%. The Smooth model appears the best.     

媒妁起源考论

媒妁文化在中国文化史和社会生活史上源远流长且殊具特色.媒妁的缘起,是为适应古代社会婚姻制度变革和人类文明进步的时代要求产生的,而不仅局限于经济因素.媒妁的肇始当在对偶婚向专偶婚过渡的父系氏族社会时期,而非专偶婚(即一夫一妻制)形成之后.其起源阶段在考古学文化中大致相当于从山东大汶口文化晚期至夏文化早期,即约在公元前2500年至前2100年之间.     

理工科专业教学应渗透伦理精神

社会的快速发展需要高素质的人才,而高素质的人才必须德才兼备、全面发展。就理工科院校的学生而言,掌握科学技术固然重要,但更重要的是正当、正确地运用所学知识造福人类、服务社会,而不是相反。在理工科专业教学中渗透伦理精神,有助于学生在学习专业知识的同时培养强烈的社会责任感和伦理道德意识,也是加强理工科大学生人文素质教育的有效途径。     

和谐的智慧与智慧的和谐——在毕达哥拉斯"数"本原思想视阈内

毕达哥拉斯的“数”本原思想是以数的和谐表征万物的和谐,以数的智慧表征宇宙的智慧,通过对“什么最智慧——数目”、“什么最美好——和谐”的科学论证、神学论证和哲学论证,达到了真善美相和谐的智慧,赋予哲学原初的、本真的意义——“爱智慧”;在“数”本原思想基础上不断发展而来的哲学本体意义上的终极存在所体现的终极解释、终极价值,印证着毕达哥拉斯真善美的和谐智慧与智慧和谐。     

煤炭资源整合对矿区农民生计影响的研究——以忻州市保德县为例

为转变煤炭经济发展方式,改变煤炭开发“多、小、散、乱”的格局,山西在国家相关政策指导下对煤炭行业进行了煤炭资源整合,煤企兼并重组.而资源整合对煤炭开发的直接承受者——矿区农民,尤其对农民的生计,无疑造成了重大影响.经过实地调研发现,资源整合后的矿区农民总体生计得到改善,但是社会资本受到负面影响,人力资本成为矿区农民生计改善的关键性制约因素.     

浅析邓子恢的农业生产责任制思想

邓子恢在我国农业合作化时期,为调动农民生产积极性,促进农业发展,创造性地提出了＂分工、包工＂、＂三包一奖＂和＂四固定＂、＂四包＂、＂新三包＂、＂包产到户＂等多种形式的农业生产责任制思想。这些思想成为我国改革开放以后实行家庭联产承包责任制的理论先导。     

Inequality Assessment by Probabilistic Development Indices

Social Indicators Research - This paper analyses the Human Development Index (HDI) time series from 2010 to 2017. An alternative index is studied, which combines the same components of the HDI by...     

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.