高校党组织和党员创先争优动力机制研究

建立高校党组织和党员创先争优动力机制是保持党的纯洁性和先进性的内在要求。针对高校党组织和党员创先争优动力机制的一定的特殊性,结合高校实际,在将基层党组织的具体活动内容进行归纳并上升到理论高度的基础上,剖析了创先争优动力机制构成要素和构建思考,分析得出:建立健全动力机制,关键在于解决内在动力的制约和外在动力的保障,核心在于激发党员从"要我做"到"我要做"的转变,解决根本思想问题,以确保创先争优活动长期有效开展下去,推动高校各项工作稳步推进。     

等维新息灰色预测模型及预测精度比较——基于我国城镇居民养老保险预测分析

本文在对我国城镇居民养老保险分析和预测中引用了等维新息灰色预测模型并与传统灰色预测模型进行了预测精度比较,最终引入了等维新息处理的灰色预测模型。等维新息灰色预测在每一步预测中,不断推陈出新对原始数据进行等维新息处理。通过对实际案例研究证实,文中提出的预测模型可以在建模过程中成功地反映数据运动规律,具有合理、有效的中长期预测功能。笔者希望通过对我国城镇居民养老保险的灰色预测分析,为今后养老保险系统的后续研究打点基础。     

用纸色谱法检测染料中联苯胺类化合物

以经典的纸色谱技术对染料中联苯胺类化合物分离、富集、检测，结果表明该法实用、方便、可靠、分析周期短。     

The probability of nursing home use over a lifetime in Australia

This article further develops the life table models used in the USA by taking advantage of the superior data available in Australia. The probabilities of nursing home use over a lifetime are estimated for various ages for men and women. The results show that over one-third of the members of a female birth cohort will eventually enter nursing homes for long-term care at least once. The corresponding probability for males is one in five. A woman at age 65 faces a probability as high as 39% of using a nursing home for permanent care before her death compared with 25% for a man at age 65.     

多样的真实——重评施叔青《香港三部曲》

施叔青在长篇小说<香港三部曲>中,从多个维度展开对香港百年历史的叙写.殖民和物质是施叔青看香港历史的两个关键词,在对历史进程的把握中,又从文化和人性的角度拓展开来,增加了历史叙写的厚度和深度.     

改进重力模型在铁路客运量预测中的应用

对重力模型参数随时间变化的规律进行了研究，用正弦函数描述了重力模型参数的波动规律，改进了原有重力模型将参数标定为常数的缺陷，并通过数据拟合对实例进行了验证，结果表明该模型预测精度较高。     

发展可持续贸易与国企策略再探讨

受到可持续消费全球化导向规律的深入影响 ,当前我国贸易战略重点都选择了发展可持续贸易。本文继提出可持续贸易发展原则与“政企协调分工模式”理论之后 ,再探发展可持续贸易与国企策略的理论与实践问题。     

宋代的诗意学说与洪迈的接受意识

宋代的诗意学说与洪迈的接受意识@张思齐$武汉大学中文系!湖北武汉430072~~     

Estimation of HIV seroconversion and effects of age in the San Francisco homosexual population

SUMMARY Using San Francisco city clinic cohort data, we estimate the HIV seroconversion distribution by both non-parametric and parametric methods, and illustrate the effects of age on this distribution. The non-parametric methods include the Turnbull method, the Bacchetti method, the expectation, maximization and smoothing (EMS) method and the penalized spline method. The seroconversion density curves estimated by these nonparametric methods are of bimodal nature with obvious effects of age. As a result of the bimodal nature of the seroconversion curves, the parametric models considered are mixtures of two distributions taken from the generalized log-logistic distribution with three parameters, the Weibull distribution and the log-normal distribution. In terms of the logarithm of the likelihood values, it appears that the non-parametric methods with smoothing as well as without smoothing (i.e. the Turnbull method) provided much better fits than did the parametric models. Among the non-parametric methods, the EMS and the spline estimates are more appealing, because the unsmoothed Turnbull estimates are very unstable and because the Bacchetti estimates have a longer tail. Among the parametric models, the mixture of a generalized log-logistic distribution with three parameters and a Weibull distribution or a log-normal distribution provided better fits than did other mixtures of parametric models.