Estimating operational costs in an electric utility

Generation expansion planning in the electric utility industry requires consideration of uncertainties in both the demand and supply of electric power. The expected demand is usually expressed via a load-duration curve, while, on the supply side, each generating unit has a given nameplate capacity and a predicted reliability. This paper focuses on considerations of the supply-side uncertainties and their effects on estimating operating costs in electric utility planning. However, the methods and analysis developed in this paper may be applicable to a wider class of production planning problems which deal with any nonstorable product with time varying demand. Two methods for estimating the energy generation from each generating unit are compared. The first is the method of probabilistic simulation, while the second involves a heuristic technique usually denoted the derating method. A bias inherent in the derating method is examined by comparing it with a probabilistic simulation method. The bias is examined for various load curve shapes. In certain cases, a closed form expression for the bias is obtained. However, a closed form expression of the bias for an arbitrary load curve is difficult to achieve. In these situations some examples are studied in which the trend of the relative bias among plants in the loading order is examined. Finally, the bias is examined using actual 1977 load and supply data for some New England utilities.     

Diagnostic bias in organizational consultation

This article is intended to improve consultation practice by explaining the significance of models, heuristics, and diagnostic aids in organizational diagnosis. The role of diagnostic models in determining the consultant's frame of reference is explained. Evidence that organizational consultants consciously use diagnostic models is provided by citing two independent studies that revealed about 70% of the consultants reported that a diagnostic model was used. The availability, representativeness, and anchoring heuristics used by diagnosticians are summarized and examples of their use are cited. Readers are warned that bias occurs from misapplying the heuristics. However, guidance on correctly applying the heuristics is provided. The development and improvement of diagnostic expertise is explained from the perspective of learning through education as well as feedback received from clients, colleagues (as shadow consultants and as consulting team members), and self. Thus, written from the perspective of a consultant, the article provides a practical presentation on diagnostic bias, supported by theory and empirical research. It should appeal not only to a consulting constituency (i.e. practicing consultants, consultant trainers, and novice consultants), but also to the large number of potential clients (i.e. organizational decision-makers). Future research directions are discussed in terms of (1) the research that has identified relationships between consultant characteristics (e.g. Jungian constructs) and diagnostic information, and (2) the potential of expert systems in organizational diagnosis.     

Improving productivity in child welfare programs

The project met its objective of finding ways to improve the efficiency of a child welfare program. The agency will continue an intensive evaluation of the program to reassess the procedures' impact on productivity. The project found that, with adaptation, work-methods techniques developed in industry can be useful to child welfare programs. Critical elements in the success of a productivity improvement project include full, visible support by the agency's policy makers and top management; early intensive involvement of affected personnel; wide implementation of recommended improvements; and continued review of their effectiveness. Although no single work-methods project can solve all problems connected with an agency's way of carrying out its work, the process developed by the Texas Department of Human Resources can be applied usefully by both public and private child welfare agencies as they seek ways to improve the efficiency of their programs.