The relationship between the length of the base period and population forecast errors

"The base period of a population forecast is the time period from which historical data are collected for the purpose of forecasting future population values. The length of the base period is one of the fundamental decisions made in preparing population forecasts, yet very few studies have investigated the effects of this decision on population forecast errors. In this article the relationship between the length of the base period and population forecast errors is analyzed, using three simple forecasting techniques and data from 1900 to 1980 for states in the United States. It is found that increasing the length of the base period up to 10 years improves forecast accuracy, but that further increases generally have little additional effect. The only exception to this finding is long-range forecasts of rapidly growing states, in which a longer base period substantially improves forecast accuracy for two of the forecasting techniques."     

二十一世纪的逻辑与哲学

冯赖特于1991年写道,逻辑学中大多数具有哲学意义的技术性工作似乎均已完成。本文作者以二阶逻辑、直觉主义逻辑、连续统值逻辑、一阶模态逻辑,以及关于绝对无限一般性的逻辑等等为例,说明逻辑学中大量具有哲学意义的技术性工作才刚刚开始。对象语言中的非正统只有通过元语言的非正统才能得以充分探究与公正评价,这种非正统有时是关于逻辑的演绎力的,有时是关于语言的表达力的。两种类型的非正统导致在元逻辑研究方式上的争论。由于这方面工作的动机主要是哲学上的,而且所需要的技术常常具有哲学意味,这项工作必须由哲学家自己去完成。因此,在21世纪,逻辑学将继续受到哲学家的关注,哲学家也将继续对它的进一步发展做出贡献。     

网络超级服务器夺魁之争

虽然竞争对手林立,但具有较强能力且属领导地位的只有两种Web服务器。     

未公布档案文件所反映20世纪初叶的俄国与西藏——《俄国与西藏——俄国档案汇编(1900—1914)》序言

该文为《俄国与西藏——俄国档案汇编(1900—1914)》的序言。首先简要介绍了20世纪初以来俄国(沙俄、苏联、当今的俄罗斯)和英国等西方国家,以及中国自上个世纪50年代以来对西藏问题的研究情况;继而介绍了本档案汇编所收文件,以及文件所反映的事件,诸如,沙俄同中国西藏地方当局非法来往;英军入侵西藏;达赖喇嘛出逃外蒙古,俄国出于自身利益的考虑对达赖喇嘛是移居俄国,还是返回中国做出的安排;英、俄背着中国签订侵犯中国主权的《西藏协定》;俄国干涉中国清政府废黜达赖喇嘛名号;达赖喇嘛出逃印度;辛亥革命爆发后的西藏局势;中华民国大总统颁令蒙藏回疆各地方同为中国领土;阿旺德尔智策动西藏独立并与英、俄建立外交关系;华侨团体通电要求向西藏和外蒙古派兵保卫边疆,以及英、藏、中三方西姆拉会议等。     

智库处在公共政策的新时代吗?——国际趋势和澳洲现实

"智库"是随着20世纪40年代以来的政策科学运动建立并巩固下来的,这些机构专门致力于产出研究型政策论据,并将这些论据应用于政策制定的过程。半个世纪后,智库这一政策科学运动所展开的项目饱受批评,并突变为各种政策分析哲学。科学型政策(science.based policy)所享有的特权仍未消失,它目前正在"证据型政策"(evidence-based policy)的旗号下重新兴起。现在越来越多的组织自称为智库,或者贴上智库的标签。在后实证主义时代和日益失去边界、形成高度网络化社群的今天,成为"智库"又意味着什么?本文通过国际文献对全球智库的最新发展进行了梳理,并重点介绍了澳大利亚智库的状况。     

Signs of resilience in sexually abused adolescent girls in the foster care system

In a sample of 99 sexually abused adolescent girls in the foster care system (64% in congregate living situations and 36% in family/foster care homes), nearly half were psychologically functioning well despite having experienced moderate-to-severe emotional, physical, and sexual abuse. It was hypothesized that these girls with resilient trajectories would differ from the currently symptomatic girls on several protective factors: education, future orientation, family support, peer influence, and religion. The results revealed that the girls with resilient trajectories were significantly more certain of their educational plans and optimistic about their future and had more positive peer influences.     

Factors Associated with Gamblers: A Population-based Cross-sectional Study of South Australian Adults

Objective To determine, using a random telephone survey, the prevalence of various gambling activities among South Australian adults, the prevalence of adult problem gamblers using the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) instrument, and to examine the problem gamblers by demographic and health-related risk factors.Method A random representative sample of South Australian adults selected from the Electronic White Pages. Overall, 6045 interviews were conducted (73.1% response rate) using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) technology.Results Overall, 75.6% (95% CI: 74.5–76.7) of respondents had participated in at least one gambling activity during the last 12 months and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.7–2.4) were identified to be problem gamblers. A wide range of factors was associated with problem gambling at a univariate level, when compared to frequent gamblers. The logistic regression analysis highlighted that problem gamblers were more likely to speak a language other than English, be employed part time and a smoker when compared to frequent gamblers. Problem gamblers were also more likely to have a mental health condition (according to the Kessler 10), have had suicidal thoughts and know of services for gambling problems.Conclusion There is a wide range of characteristics associated with problem gambling in South Australia. All of these factors need addressing during policy development to assist problem gamblers.     

The prevalence and incidence of intimate partner and interpersonal mistreatment in older women in primary care offices

Self-report information about mistreatment experiences and perpetrators were collected from a large sample of women over 55 years of age who sought care from Midwestern primary care offices. A significantly larger proportion of women had experienced sexual mistreatment since turning 55 that was perpetrated by an intimate partner than committed by an interpersonal perpetrator. The women experienced significantly more threats, physical mistreatment, and caregiver mistreatment since turning 55, and more threats and caregiver mistreatment within the last year by an interpersonal perpetrator than by an intimate partner. Several women described different types of perpetrators who had threatened or mistreated them. Few women reported the mistreatment to anyone. Implications for elder service providers and advocates are discussed.     

Smallpox-related knowledge and beliefs among recent college graduates

Recent world events have increased concern and preparations for possible bioterror events. Despite worldwide efforts to limit access to bio-weapons, smallpox is still considered a potential bioterror threat. Americans' understanding of smallpox could prevent panic and enhance the willingness of citizens to receive vaccinations. OBJECTIVE: The authors' purpose in this study was to describe graduating college students' levels of smallpox-related knowledge. METHOD SUMMARY: Participants at a graduation ceremony--mostly female, with a mean age of 28.4+/-8.1 years--were handed a 35-item questionnaire that assessed smallpox knowledge and whether respondents would submit to vaccination under hypothetical circumstances. RESULTS: The convenience sample was ignorant of numerous facts about smallpox and unaware of government efforts to prepare for an attack, answering an average of 3.8 out of 10 items correctly. CONCLUSION: These findings raise concern because, in a smallpox event, prompt responses to directives of public health officials will be necessary to maximize the effectiveness of response plans.