Discussion of paper 'explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: a search for commonalities', Population Studies 57(3): 241-263, by John Caldwell and Thomas Schindlmayr

The contributors to this discussion were invited to submit comments, each from a different standpoint, on the paper by John Caldwell and Thomas Schindlmayr that appeared in the preceding issue of the journal. The invitation was issued with the approval of these authors, and the journal is grateful to them for allowing their paper to be used to generate debate on the issues they had raised. The discussion is followed by the authors' response to it.     

Talking about race using critical race theory: recent trends in the Journal of Marital and Family Therapy

This study uses critical race theory as an interpretive lens to critique recent race related articles in the Journal of Marital and Family Therapy (JMFT). Our primary goal is to contribute to and inspire dialogue about the perspectives marriage and family therapists (MFTs) are taking in relationship to race. We situate our exploration within the broader context of continuing professional education. We describe the main themes of critical race theory and use them as the conceptual framework. Analyzing 127 articles, we found that only topics related to couples and divorce occurred more frequently than race and social justice. Within the articles on race, evidence suggests that issues of race and racism are emerging as key informants of MFT practice. We point to areas for consideration in future MFT research and practice.     

To age or not to age--what is the question?

Over the past 50 years, a generally accepted theory about the evolution of aging has been developed. One common conclusion that has been deduced from this theory is that aging is inevitable in organisms in which there is a difference between offspring and parents. A recent paper by Sozou and Seymour questions this prediction using a mathematical model, but it remains to be seen whether their new results stand up to more general analysis.     

Obesity over the life course

Obesity in middle-aged humans is a risk factor for many age-related diseases and decreases life expectancy by about 7 years, which is roughly comparable to the combined effect of all cardiovascular disease and cancer on life span. The prevalence of obesity increases up until late middle age and decreases thereafter. Mechanisms that lead to increased obesity with age are not yet well understood, but current evidence implicates impairments in hypothalamic function, especially impairments in the ability of hypothalamic pro-opiomelanocortin neurons to sense nutritional signals. The rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity at all ages in the past decade suggests that, in the next two or three decades, diseases associated with obesity, especially diabetes, will begin to rise rapidly. Indeed, these trends suggest that for the first time in modern history, the life expectancy of people in developed societies will begin to decrease, unless the rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity can be reversed.     

Two-Sample Statistics for Testing the Equality of Survival Functions Against Improper Semi-parametric Accelerated Failure Time Alternatives: An Application to the Analysis of a Breast Cancer Clinical Trial

This paper presents two-sample statistics suited for testing equality of survival functions against improper semi-parametric accelerated failure time alternatives. These tests are designed for comparing either the short- or the long-term effect of a prognostic factor, or both. These statistics are obtained as partial likelihood score statistics from a time-dependent Cox model. As a consequence, the proposed tests can be very easily implemented using widely available software. A breast cancer clinical trial is presented as an example to demonstrate the utility of the proposed tests.     

Migration pressure

"The basic message of this paper is that migration pressure is caused by an excess supply of migration-willing people relative to migration demand in immigration countries....I will also analyse the willingness of destination countries to accept immigrants.... This article concentrates more on political (in-)stability as probably the most important determinant of migration pressure....I also focus on the enormous migration-retarding effect of stable and well defined political institutions." Data concerning migration from Turkey to Europe, and especially to Germany, are used to illustrate. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)