Migration pressure

"The basic message of this paper is that migration pressure is caused by an excess supply of migration-willing people relative to migration demand in immigration countries....I will also analyse the willingness of destination countries to accept immigrants.... This article concentrates more on political (in-)stability as probably the most important determinant of migration pressure....I also focus on the enormous migration-retarding effect of stable and well defined political institutions." Data concerning migration from Turkey to Europe, and especially to Germany, are used to illustrate. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Medicaid Expansions and Fertility in the United States

Beginning in the mid-1980s and extending through the early to mid-1990s, a substantial number of women and children in the United States gained eligibility for Medicaid through a series of income-based expansions. Using natality data from the National Center for Health Statistics, we estimate fertility responses to these eligibility expansions. We follow Currie and Gruber (2001) and measure changes in state Medicaid-eligibility policy by simulating the fraction of a standard population that would qualify for benefits in different states and different time periods. From 1985 to 1996, the fraction of women aged 15–44 who were eligible for Medicaid coverage for a pregnancy increased more than 20 percentage points. When we use a state and year fixed-effects model with a limited set of covariates, our estimates indicate that fertility increases in response to Medicaid expansions. However, after we include fixed effects for demographic characteristics, the estimated relationship diminishes substantially in size and is no longer statistically significant. We conclude that there is no robust relationship between Medicaid expansions and fertility.     

Transition to Parenthood: The Role of Social Interaction and Endogenous Networks

Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual’s peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdependencies across individuals’ transition to parenthood and its timing, we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics: age, intended education, and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members may then influence the agents’ transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social interactions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria during the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.     

National Income and Income Inequality,Family Affluence and Life Satisfaction Among 13 year Old Boys and Girls: A Multilevel Study in 35 Countries

Adolescence is a critical period where many patterns of health and health behaviour are formed. The objective of this study was to investigate cross-national variation in the relationship between family affluence and adolescent life satisfaction, and the impact of national income and income inequality on this relationship. Data from the 2006 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children: WHO collaborative Study (N = 58,352 across 35 countries) were analysed using multilevel linear and logistic regression analyses for outcome measures life satisfaction score and binary high/low life satisfaction. National income and income inequality were associated with aggregated life satisfaction score and prevalence of high life satisfaction. Within-country socioeconomic inequalities in life satisfaction existed even after adjustment for family structure. This relationship was curvilinear and varied cross-nationally. Socioeconomic inequalities were greatest in poor countries and in countries with unequal income distribution. GDP (PPP US$) and Gini did not explain between country variance in socioeconomic inequalities in life satisfaction. The existence of, and variation in, within-country socioeconomic inequalities in adolescent life satisfaction highlights the importance of identifying and addressing mediating factors during this life stage.     

Determining the non-inferiority margin for patient reported outcomes

One of the cornerstones of any non-inferiority trial is the choice of the non-inferiority margin delta. This threshold of clinical relevance is very difficult to determine, and in practice, delta is often "negotiated" between the sponsor of the trial and the regulatory agencies. However, for patient reported, or more precisely patient observed outcomes, the patients' minimal clinically important difference (MCID) can be determined empirically by relating the treatment effect, for example, a change on a 100-mm visual analogue scale, to the patient's satisfaction with the change. This MCID can then be used to define delta. We used an anchor-based approach with non-parametric discriminant analysis and ROC analysis and a distribution-based approach with Norman's half standard deviation rule to determine delta in three examples endometriosis-related pelvic pain measured on a 100-mm visual analogue scale, facial acne measured by lesion counts, and hot flush counts. For each of these examples, all three methods yielded quite similar results. In two of the cases, the empirically derived MCIDs were smaller or similar of deltas used before in non-inferiority trials, and in the third case, the empirically derived MCID was used to derive a responder definition that was accepted by the FDA. In conclusion, for patient-observed endpoints, the delta can be derived empirically. In our view, this is a better approach than that of asking the clinician for a "nice round number" for delta, such as 10, 50%, π, e, or i.     

Stress and tobacco use among African-American adolescents: the buffering effect of cultural factors

Tobacco is a leading contributor to morbidity and mortality and a primary reason for health disparities among African Americans. In this study we explore the role of stress in smoking and cultural factors that protect against stress among African-American adolescents. Our sample consisted of 239 youth who were recruited into the study while enrolled in 8th and 12th grade. Measures of risk factors (stress, school transition stress, and community disorganization), moderator or protective factors (religious support and intergenerational connections), and 30-day tobacco use were collected. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted. Intergenerational connections moderated the effect of stress on past 30-day tobacco use. Religious support moderated the effect of neighborhood disorganization on past 30-day tobacco use. Religious support also moderated the effect of stress on past 30-day tobacco use. The findings have implications for prevention efforts to consider religious beliefs and practices and also to link youth with supportive adults in their community.