Experiences in evaluating the population figures of the USSR, 1926-1941 (brief results of investigations)

The authors discuss shortcomings of the Soviet censuses conducted from 1926 to 1941, using modern methods to adjust the data. Tables include original and adjusted data on the total population of the USSR by age and sex.     

The causes of international labor migrations--a demand-determined approach

The author first studies the reasons why people migrate using a neoclassical approach concerning income differentials. He tests this approach empirically and demonstrates its limits. A demand-determination approach based on human capital theory is then outlined to overcome these limits and to take into account restrictive immigration controls. Migration from Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Turkey to the European Community destination countries is examined. It is concluded that "the demand for immigrants in the destination country is the decisive condition for the phenomenon of international labor migration, and the supply of migration-willing workers is only a necessary condition."     

Normative population theory

Utilitarian and contractarian solutions to the problem of optimal population are examined and shown to have unacceptable implications. As argued by Parfit, for instance, utilitarianism may imply large numbers of people at a very low standard of living. An analogy is drawn between optimal population for a society and the optimal structure of an individual life. The ideal life need not maximize cardinal utility, because an individual may prefer a shorter life with less, more intense utility to a very long life with higher total utility (Methuselah's Paradox). The optimal population is what an individual would prefer if he had to sequentially live out each life in his choice.The author wishes to thank John Broome, Amihai Glazer, Jack High, Joseph Kalt, Randy Kroszner, Thomas Schelling and an editor of this journal for useful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Optimal Partitioning for Linear Mixed Effects Models: Applications to Identifying Placebo Responders

A long-standing problem in clinical research is distinguishing drug treated subjects that respond due to specific effects of the drug from those that respond to non-specific (or placebo) effects of the treatment. Linear mixed effect models are commonly used to model longitudinal clinical trial data. In this paper we present a solution to the problem of identifying placebo responders using an optimal partitioning methodology for linear mixed effects models. Since individual outcomes in a longitudinal study correspond to curves, the optimal partitioning methodology produces a set of prototypical outcome profiles. The optimal partitioning methodology can accommodate both continuous and discrete covariates. The proposed partitioning strategy is compared and contrasted with the growth mixture modelling approach. The methodology is applied to a two-phase depression clinical trial where subjects in a first phase were treated openly for 12 weeks with fluoxetine followed by a double blind discontinuation phase where responders to treatment in the first phase were randomized to either stay on fluoxetine or switched to a placebo. The optimal partitioning methodology is applied to the first phase to identify prototypical outcome profiles. Using time to relapse in the second phase of the study, a survival analysis is performed on the partitioned data. The optimal partitioning results identify prototypical profiles that distinguish whether subjects relapse depending on whether or not they stay on the drug or are randomized to a placebo.     

Nonparametric Inference of Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process Data via the Kernel Method

Doubly stochastic Poisson processes, also known as the Cox processes, frequently occur in various scientific fields. In this article, motivated primarily by analyzing Cox process data in biophysics, we propose a nonparametric kernel-based inference method. We conduct a detailed study, including an asymptotic analysis, of the proposed method, and provide guidelines for its practical use, introducing a fast and stable regression method for bandwidth selection. We apply our method to real photon arrival data from recent single-molecule biophysical experiments, investigating proteins' conformational dynamics. Our result shows that conformational fluctuation is widely present in protein systems, and that the fluctuation covers a broad range of time scales, highlighting the dynamic and complex nature of proteins' structure.     

Preventing suicide by educating general practitioners

An education program for GPs about treating patients with depressive disorders and panic disorders was implemented in one district in the year 1998. A neighboring district was used as a control. Although the educational program was followed by an increase in referrals for panic disorder in the target district, there was no impact on referrals for depressive disorders, the prescribing of antidepressants by the GPs, or the suicide rate.     

全球变暖，不必担心饥荒的五个理由

理由1 历史气候暖期，粮食产量持续上升 从历史上看，人类的粮食产量，在全球变暖期间都是持续上升的。这是因为气候变暖提供了植物更多需要的东西，如阳光、雨水和较长的生长期。而植物不喜欢的东西在温暖期也是较少的，如缩短作物生长期的晚春霜冻和秋季初霜，以及能摧毁田间作物的冰雹。丹麦农业科学院的约根·欧森预测，欧洲的整体粮食产量将随着气候变暖而增加，即使欧洲南部有些地区将因干旱而产量有所减少。     

全球化世界中的儒学

当今世界遇到了大量问题:局部战争、种族冲突、国际恐怖主义、饥荒、瘟疫、自然灾害、生态灾难,等等.这些还远远不是问题的全部.在存在着席卷整个世界的精神危机的条件下,提出寻找能医治当前这个病态社会的道德取向是不可避免的.这时,人们既求助于本民族的精神遗产和宗教思想,也求助于其他民族的哲学学说和思想观念,不足为怪.