Impacts of Rapid Urban Growth on Farmland Conversion: Application of New Regional Land Use Policy Models and Geographical Information Systems1

Abstract Geographical Information Systems (GIS) computer mapping programs and new land use policy models are shown to be useful in understanding the dynamics of rural land conversion to urban uses. The California Central Valley Alternative Futures Model was constructed to evaluate patterns of growth that are forecasted to triple the population of the California Central Valley by 2040. The GIS sub-divided the Valley into over 750,000 land units, and a logit analysis evaluated factors leading to actual patterns of recent growth. Undeveloped land units were assigned a probability of future development, and expected population increases were allocated to those land units with the highest probability of future growth under two growth scenarios: low density and compact growth. The model shows that low density growth would convert over 1,035,000 acres of farmland to urban uses, including over 600,000 acres of prime or statewide important quality land. Compact growth would convert only 474,000 acres total, of which only 266,000 would be on prime soils. This paper shows how new land use models and GIS programs enable rural sociologists to better understand how rural communities and their spatial environment interact—in particular, how these tools enable researchers to explore the forces and consequences of rural and exurban growth.     

A Test for Slope Heterogeneity in Fixed Effects Models

Typical panel data models make use of the assumption that the regression parameters are the same for each individual cross-sectional unit. We propose tests for slope heterogeneity in panel data models. Our tests are based on the conditional Gaussian likelihood function in order to avoid the incidental parameters problem induced by the inclusion of individual fixed effects for each cross-sectional unit. We derive the Conditional Lagrange Multiplier test that is valid in cases where N → ∞ and T is fixed. The test applies to both balanced and unbalanced panels. We expand the test to account for general heteroskedasticity where each cross-sectional unit has its own form of heteroskedasticity. The modification is possible if T is large enough to estimate regression coefficients for each cross-sectional unit by using the MINQUE unbiased estimator for regression variances under heteroskedasticity. All versions of the test have a standard Normal distribution under general assumptions on the error distribution as N → ∞. A Monte Carlo experiment shows that the test has very good size properties under all specifications considered, including heteroskedastic errors. In addition, power of our test is very good relative to existing tests, particularly when T is not large.     

Age,Tenure, Resources for Control,and Organizational Commitment*

Objectives. A higher level of organizational commitment for older and more experienced workers has primarily been explained via exchange theory or a cohort effect. We use an agency‐structure framework to explain that higher levels of commitment result from feelings of control in the workplace. Methods. We examine this framework using data from a survey of 400 unionized factory workers in the Midwest. Results. The relationship between organizational commitment and predictors is affected by worker career stage. Most significantly, the commitment for older and more experienced workers increases with high levels of autonomy, while the opposite is true for younger and less experienced workers. Conclusions. When workers experience greater control at the point of production, they express greater organizational commitment. Although empowering for older and experienced workers, having freedom at work can be threatening or destabilizing for the younger workers, who may prefer more guidance.     

Are black workers missing the connection? The effect of spatial distance and employee referrals on interfirm racial segregation

I use data on the hiring practices and spatial location of firms in four cities to model the process of interfirm racial segregation. When I control for the spatial location of the firm, the use of employee referrals reduced the probability of hiring a black worker by 75% in firms that are less than 10% black. Among all firms, the results suggest that employee referrals are just as important as the geographic location of the firm in generating employment segregation: both increase the predicted level of interfirm racial segregation among blue-collar workers in the cities studied by about 10%.     

Structural antecedents of aggravated assault: exploratory assessment of female and male victimization

This article examines whether the social structural factors predicting violence against women are different from those predicting violence against men. Using sex-specific, aggravated assault rates from Florida counties (n = 60), this regression analysis tests three principal explanations of violent victimization: routine activities, social disorganization, and gender inequality. Although initially some difference in the predictive factors for male and female aggravated assault rates emerged, a test of the equality of regression coefficients revealed no "real" significant differences. Despite this finding, it remains important to assess the influence of societal factors on rates of violent victimization. The national trend indicates that male violent victimization is declining and female violent victimization is relatively stable. It is important to understand why this is the case.     

On the validity of retrospective assessments of pregnancy intention

Information on pregnancy intention is often gathered retrospectively (after the birth of a child). This article investigates whether the retrospective assessment of pregnancy intention leads to biased estimates of the extent or consequences of unintended fertility. Comparisons are made between pregnancy intentions ascertained during pregnancy and after birth using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. To address the bias caused by selective recognition or acknowledgment of pregnancy, we used the longitudinal feature of the data to determine actual pregnancy status at the time of interviews, which, in turn, was used as an instrumental variable for the retrospective (versus prospective) reporting of pregnancy intention. After correction for selective pregnancy recognition, we found no evidence that the retrospective assessment of pregnancy intention produces misleading estimates of either the number or the consequences of unintended births. This finding is supported by additional analyses of a small subsample of women for whom information on pregnancy intention was collected both during pregnancy and after birth.     

MONEY MATTERS; A REALITY CHECK,WITH HELP FROM VIRGINIA WOOLF

This article provides a qualified defence of economic indicators of human well being. Purchasing power obviously matters as a prerequisite for obtaining basic needs; abundant examples of human behaviour even in the richest countries in the world suggest that it matters for many other reasons, as well. Despite the shortcomings of indicators like GDP and GNP, richer nations (like richer individuals) have options that are simply not available to poorer ones. A particularly serious limitation of such indicators arises from their failure to take into account the distribution of income and wealth, both within and among nations. Higher income does not automatically lead to increased well being, but extreme caution is in order about attempts to dismiss its contribution, or to pathologize certain forms of consumption. While arguing the merits of a lifestyle less organized around consumption, proponents of sustainable development must acknowledge the strength of the evidence that money matters.