The South African fertility decline: Evidence from two censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey

Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility decline from 1955 to 1996. Having identified and adjusted for several errors in the 1996 Census data, the paper argues that total fertility at that time was 3.2 children per woman nationally, and 3.5 children per woman for African South Africans. These levels are lower than in any other sub-Saharan African country. We show also that fertility in South Africa has been falling since the 1960s. Thus, fertility transition predates the establishment of a family planning programme in the country in 1974.     

Dynamics of Peer Relationships Across the First Two Years of Junior High as a Function of Gender and Changes in Classroom Composition

This article examines the dynamics of peer relationships across the first 2 grades of Dutch junior high schools (average age 13–14). Specifically, we studied how gender and compositional changes in classrooms structured the changes in peer relationships between the 2 grades. Expectations were derived from past research, and we tested whether these held when methods for data analysis were applied that control appropriately for the dependence structure of the data (more specifically, multilevel analysis and a multilevel application of actor‐oriented models for network evolution). Analyses revealed that the stability of peer acceptance was relatively low and that it was affected neither by the level of classroom stability nor by gender. Dyadic relationships were moderately stable. Tendencies toward reciprocity, network closure, and gender similarity shaped the changes in networks of peer relationships within classes. Contrary to past findings, female newcomers in classrooms were equally as well accepted as male newcomers or established class members.     

Mental health around and after the menopause

The menopause is a time in a woman's life when it is recognized that biological and social changes can impact upon mental wellbeing. Several studies have investigated the relationship between menopause and psychological symptoms, especially depression, with mixed results. In part, this is due to a considerable overlap between depressive symptoms and those due to declining estrogen levels, causing challenges in assessment. However it appears that vulnerable women are at a higher risk of succumbing to depression during menopausal transition. Antidepressants remain the mainstay of treating depressive symptoms, with little conclusive evidence for hormone replacement therapy. Memory problems during menopause are a common complaint, but there is no demonstrated link to subsequent dementia. This paper also reviews considerations of diagnosis and treatment of postmenopausal depression.     

Migration to electronic distribution through OCLC'S electronic journals online

In the previous installment of this column, Donnice Cochenour wrote about Project Muse, Johns Hopkins University Press's project to provide electronic access to its journals. This column will explore OCLC's collaboration with publishers who are making traditional print publications available electronically. Serials Review interviewed Andrea Keyhani, Manager of Electronic Publishing at OCLC, about traditional print publishers' interests in electronic distribution of journals, OCLC's solution to publishers' migration to electronic distribution, enhancements to their Guidon software, and libraries' costs and archive concerns.     

Why small hermit crabs have large shells

Summary Frequent shell exchanges among hermit crabs imply the enigmatic circumstance that large crabs frequently obtain large shells from smaller crabs. This seeming anomaly is explored as a key to the shell resource system. It is hypothesized to reflect how, where, and how often shells become available to the crabs. Shells become available infrequently, as snails die, and are available to the crabs for only a brief time before they become inaccessible. The standing crop of empty shells is almost always low and is irrelevant to rates of shell turnover in the crab population. Crabs are most likely to encounter shells of the wrong size, and the chance of encountering a shell of the desired size decreases as a crab grows. Snails and crabs are usually found on different portions of the shore; thus, crabs must make “foraging trips” for shells. Under this regime of shell supply, a crab will get a suitable shell the fastest when it accepts any fresh shell that is larger than its initial shell. It can then trade with other crabs to improve its shell fit. This behavior will make small crabs into a regular source of large shells for large crabs, and a shell exchange ritual will be strongly favored because both participants will benefit. Shells are an unusual resource because they are the object of both competitive and mutualistic interactions. This ambiguous quality is revealed in the intraspecific and interspecific responses of crabs to each other and to shells.     

Two zs are Better than One

Given only a random sample of observations, the usual estimator for the population mean is the sample mean. If additional information is provided it might be possible in some situations to obtain a better estimator. The situation considered here is when the variable whose mean is sought is composed of factors that are themselves observable. In the basic case, the variable can be expressed as the product of two, independent, more basic variables, but we also consider the case of more than two, the effect of correlation, and when there are observation costs.     

Restorative Justice and Procedural Justice: Dealing with Rule Breaking

This article identifies similarities among three approaches to dealing with rule breaking: the procedural justice model, the restorative justice model, and the study of moral development. Each argues that the long-term goal when dealing with rule breaking is to motivate rule breakers to become more self-regulating in their future conduct. This goal is undermined by punishment-focused models of sanctioning. Sanction-based models, which dominate current thinking about managing criminals, have negative consequences for the individual wrongdoer and for society. It is argued that greater focus needs to be placed on psychological approaches whose goal is to connect with and activate internal values within wrongdoers with the goal of encouraging self-regulatory law-related behavior in the future.