Geographic information systems, spatial network analysis, and contraceptive choice

How does family planning accessibility affect contraceptive choice? In this paper we use techniques of spatial analysis to develop measures of family planning accessibility, and evaluate the effects of these geographically derived measures in a multilevel statistical model of temporary method choice in Nang Rong, Thailand. In our analyses we combine spatial data obtained from maps and Global Positioning System (GPS) readings with sociodemographic data from surveys and administrative records. The new measures reveal (1) important travel time effects even when family planning outlets are close by; (2) independent effects of road composition; (3) the relevance of alternative sources of family planning supply; and (4) the importance of the local history of program placement.     

Globalisation and the Politics of Persuasion and Coercion

This paper argues that an economic liberal discourse of globalisation has been pivotal to the policy‐making process in Australia over the past 15 or so years. Both Labor and Coalition Governments have aimed to restrict the electoral fall‐out from the process of restructuring by persuading Australians that the world economy has forced particular policy changes and made alternative economic policy choices unviable. Policy‐makers act to influence conceptions of the appropriate role and responsibilities of the state through persuasion – the rhetoric they speak – and coercion – the policies they make. The pervasiveness of globalisation rhetoric in the public sphere has been essential to the governing process as a complement to and buffer for the coercive impact of economic liberal policy changes. As Australia has shifted from a protectionist to an economically liberal policy structure, the effects of globalisation have become clearer. Liberalisation has intensified pressures from the world political economy and coerced changes in all areas of policy and the economy, as well as in public perceptions about the ‘limits of government’. Globalisation and economic liberalism as persuasion and coercion are the component parts of a restructured system of political and economic governance: a paradigmatic shift away from the economic protectionism of the first 80 years of Australian federalism.     

The militarization of Native America: Historical process and cultural perception

Native Americans have experienced widespread militarization as the result of a number of factors. First, many Mative nations militarized in reaction to the weaponry and threats presented by invading Europeans. Secondly, the Europeans and later the Americans used Native Americans as auxiliaries and allies in their wars against other Native nations. Finally, militarization came to several tribes by way of the U.S. policy of assimilating American Indians into mainstream American society. Militarization, in short, became a way of legitimating Native citizenship. Many Indians, however, look upon their military service in a different way. Native American militarization resembles that of the Nepalese Gurkha veterans of the British Army.     

Context‐Specific,Scenario‐Based Risk Scales

Reacting to an emergency requires quick decisions under stressful and dynamic conditions. To react effectively, responders need to know the right actions to take given the risks posed by the emergency. While existing research on risk scales focuses primarily on decision making in static environments with known risks, these scales may be inappropriate for conditions where the decision maker's time and mental resources are limited and may be infeasible if the actual risk probabilities are unknown. In this article, we propose a method to develop context‐specific, scenario‐based risk scales designed for emergency response training. Emergency scenarios are used as scale points, reducing our dependence on known probabilities; these are drawn from the targeted emergency context, reducing the mental resources required to interpret the scale. The scale is developed by asking trainers/trainees to rank order a range of risk scenarios and then aggregating these orderings using a Kemeny ranking. We propose measures to assess this aggregated scale's internal consistency, reliability, and validity, and we discuss how to use the scale effectively. We demonstrate our process by developing a risk scale for subsurface coal mine emergencies and test the reliability of the scale by repeating the process, with some methodological variations, several months later.     

A mixture model for the detection of Neosporosis without a gold standard

Neosporosis is a bovine disease caused by the parasite Neospora caninum. It is not yet sufficiently studied, and it is supposed to cause an important number of abortions. Its clinical symptoms do not yet allow the reliable identification of infected animals. Its study and treatment would improve if a test based on antibody counts were available. Knowing the distribution functions of observed counts of uninfected and infected cows would allow the determination of a cutoff value. These distributions cannot be estimated directly. This paper deals with the indirect estimation of these distributions based on a data set consisting of the antibody counts for some 200 pairs of cows and their calves. The desired distributions are estimated through a mixture model based on simple assumptions that describe the relationship between each cow and its calf. The model then allows the estimation of the cutoff value and of the error probabilities.     

Bayesiam simultaneous estimation for several multinomial distributions

A Bayesian method is proposed for estimating the cell probabilities of several multinomial distributions. Parameters of different distributions are taken to be a priori exchangeable. The prior specification is based upon mixtures of a hierarchical distribution, referred to as the multivariate “Dirichlet-Dirichlet” distribution. The analysis is facilitated by a multinomial approximation relating to the multinomial-Dirichlet distribution. The posterior estimates depend upon measures of entropy for the various distributions and shrink the individual observed proportions towards values obtained by pooling the data across the distributions. As well as incorporating prior information they are particularly useful when some of the cell frequencies are zero. We use them to investigate a numerical classification of males of various vocations, according to cause of death.     

The future of Australia’s Indigenous Population, 2011–61

Existing projections of Australia’s Indigenous Population suffer from a number of limitations: problematic input data, unsatisfactory projection model design, and poor forecast performance. The aim of this study was to create a new model for projecting that population that better represents the demographic processes at work, and that makes use of a newly available data source on identification change. A new projection model is presented that explicitly incorporates ethnic-identification change, and mixed (Indigenous/Non-Indigenous) partnering and childbearing. It is a composite static–dynamic model which takes a multi-state form where data allow. The model was used to produce projections for the 2011–61 period. Rapid growth of the Indigenous Population is expected, with population momentum, identification change, and mixed partnering and childbearing shown to contribute more to growth than above-replacement fertility and increasing life expectancy. The future growth of Australia’s Indigenous Population is thus intimately connected to its interaction with the Non-Indigenous Population.     

Attitudes towards childcare policies,policy feedback and path dependency: Czech Republic contrasted to Norway

This article explores the recent changes in mothers’ employment, childcare policies and attitudes towards gender equality in the labour market, in the Czech Republic and Norway, how these factors interact and what impact they have on the provision of childcare. Analysis suggests that there is convergence of the Czech Republic with Norway in terms of female employment, but divergence in childcare policies. The policy feedback – the mutual interrelatedness of attitudes towards mothers’ employment and childcare policies – has shaped refamilialising policies in the Czech Republic, whereas in Norway policies that support gender equality in work and family have emerged.