A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility

Between 1998 and 2008 European countries experienced the first continent-wide increase in the period total fertility rate (TFR) since the 1960s. After discussing period and cohort influences on fertility trends, we examine the role of tempo distortions of period fertility and different methods for removing them. We highlight the usefulness of a new indicator: the tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*). This variant of the adjusted total fertility rate proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney also controls for the parity composition of the female population and provides more stable values than the indicators proposed in the past. Finally, we estimate levels and trends in tempo and parity distribution distortions in selected countries in Europe. Our analysis of period and cohort fertility indicators in the Czech Republic, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden shows that the new adjusted measure gives a remarkable fit with the completed fertility of women in prime childbearing years in a given period, which suggests that it provides an accurate adjustment for tempo and parity composition distortions. Using an expanded dataset for ten countries, we demonstrate that adjusted fertility as measured by TFRp* remained nearly stable since the late 1990s. This finding implies that the recent upturns in the period TFR in Europe are largely explained by a decline in the pace of fertility postponement. Other tempo-adjusted fertility indicators have not indicated such a large role for the diminishing tempo effect in these TFR upturns. As countries proceed through their postponement transitions, tempo effects will decline further and eventually disappear, thus putting continued upward pressure on period fertility. However, such an upward trend may be obscured for a few years by the effects of economic recession.     

Risk Management across the Globe: Insights from a Comparative Look at Sweden, Japan, and the United States

In light of the present day risk controversies such as global warming and hormones in beef, partially caused by a more globalized world, national differences and similarities in how to manage risks become increasingly important. In this brief "perspective" we focus on how risks are managed in three nations, namely Japan, Sweden, and the United States, specifically focusing on the roles of deliberation, risk analysis, and the importance of cultural factors.     

Managed care's Achilles heel: ethical immaturity

How can physician executives determine the prevailing values in the managed care arena? What are the consequences when values statements are ignored during decision-making? These questions can be answered using a process called ethical reasoning, which is different and more productive than making moral judgments, such as "is managed care good or bad?" Failing to include ethical reasoning in executive offices and boardrooms is a form of ethical immaturity. It fuels public suspicion that managed care's goal may be maximizing profit at all costs, as opposed to seeking reasonable profit through provision of dependable and accessible health care services. One outcome of ethical reasoning is rediscovering the basic truth that running one's business on competitive rather than altruistic principles is ethical whenever greater efficiencies and economic growth enlarge the size of the pie for everyone. Reasonable self-interest is a perfectly acceptable reason to act ethically. The time has come for physician executives to develop a basic understanding of pragmatic ethics, and to appreciate the value of adding ethical reasoning to the decision-making process.     

Sexual trauma, spirituality, and psychopathology

This study assessed the association between spirituality and psychopathology in a group of sexual abuse victims and controls with a focus on whether spirituality moderated the association between sexual trauma and psychopathology. Seventy-one sexual trauma victims were compared to 25 control subjects on spiritual well-being, the Eating Disorder Examination, the PTSD Symptom Scale, and the SCID-I/P. The data showed that the two groups did not differ in terms of spiritual well-being. Sexual trauma status was associated with most of the psychopathology outcomes, but its impact on psychopathology was largely unmoderated by spirituality. Among sexual trauma victims, the level of spiritual well-being did not alter the probability of current psychopathology. However, increased spiritual well-being was generally associated with lower psychopathology for the entire sample.     

Effects of an 8-week multimodal exercise program on strength, flexibility, and golf performance in 55- to 79-year-old men

Substantial research has indicated the beneficial effect of physical activity on physical fitness and activities of daily living in older adults, but none have investigated the effects on performance of recreational activities. This investigation studied the effect of an exercise program on fitness and golf-clubhead speed in older men. Thirty-one golfers (mean age 65.1 +/- 6.2 years) were randomly assigned to a treatment (n = 19) or control (n = 12) group. The treatment group completed an 8-week strength and flexibility program. Assessments included 10-RM muscle strength; selected range-of-motion (ROM) measurements; and golf-clubhead speed (CHS). ANCOVA revealed significant differences between groups (p <.005) for all strength measurements and several ROM measurements. CHS was significantly different (p <.05) between groups after the intervention. Mean CHS improved from 85.0 to 87.1 miles/hr (136.8 to 140.2 km/hr). These results indicate that a strength and flexibility program can improve golf performance in older adults.     

Enhancing hospital performance through perioperative services

Perioperative services are the lifeblood of a hospital, but with increasing competition, the services are under attack. Discover ways to protect and improve a hospital's perioperative services.     

Tiered Chemical Testing: A Value of Information Approach

In December 2000 the EPA initiated the Voluntary Children's Chemical Evaluation Program (VCCEP) by asking manufacturers to voluntarily sponsor toxicological testing in a tiered process for 23 chemicals selected for the pilot phase. The tiered nature of the VCCEP pilot program creates the need for clearly defined criteria for determining when information is sufficient to assess the potential risks to children. This raises questions about how to determine the "adequacy" of the existing information and assess the need to undertake efforts to reduce uncertainty (through further testing). This article applies a value of information analysis approach to determine adequacy by modeling how toxicological and exposure data collected through the VCCEP may be used to inform risk management decisions. The analysis demonstrates the importance of information about the exposure level and control costs in making decisions regarding further toxicological testing. This article accounts for the cost of delaying control action and identifies the optimal testing strategy for a constrained decisionmaker who, absent applicable human data, cannot regulate without bioassay data on a specific chemical. It also quantifies the differences in optimal testing strategy for three decision criteria: maximizing societal net benefits, ensuring maximum exposure control while net benefits are positive (i.e., benefits outweigh costs), and controlling to the maximum extent technologically feasible while the lifetime risk of cancer exceeds a specific level of risk. Finally, this article shows the large differences that exist in net benefits between the three criteria for the range of exposure levels where the optimal actions differ.     

Sudanese refugee youth in foster care: the "lost boys" in America

This study examined the resettlement experiences of unaccompanied Sudanese refugee youth placed in foster care from the perspectives of the youth, foster parents, and agency caseworkers. Youth experienced considerable success. The challenges of adjusting to school and family life, however, suggest a need for funding to support more intensive educational services, more cultural training and support for foster parents and school personnel, and flexibility to provide services in more culturally appropriate modalities.