Customer Behavior in an Online Ordering Application: A Decision Scoring Model*

This research presents the development of behavioral scoring models to predict future customer purchases in an online ordering application. Internet retailing lowers many barriers for customers switching between retailers for repeat purchases; thus, retaining existing customers is a key challenge for achieving profitability. Survey data were collected from 1,089 online customers of two companies. The subjective survey data were then used to predict purchases over the ensuing 12 months based on data from the company databases. The analysis illustrates the general applicability of predictive models of future customer purchases while also demonstrating the need to develop specific models tailored for an individual company's operating and marketing environment. The models provide insight on how companies can target marketing dollars more effectively and allocate investment across multiple operational areas for maximum return. The research answers a call for rigorous research in the area of predictive marketing, an area in which many companies are excelling but where there is a scarcity of detailed knowledge regarding application of such models.     

Managing the International Strategic Sourcing Process as a Market-Driven Organizational Learning System*

This study examines the effects of market-driven organizational learning on a select set of strategic sourcing outcomes involving the sourcing function of a Fortune 500 multinational corporation. The focus is on the dyadic activities and relationships between the domestic and international strategic business units (SBUs) and the corporate buying center. The hypothesized relationships are tested on the overall sample and based on a two-by-two matrix framework defined by international versus domestic settings and frequent versus infrequent sourcing scenarios. Based on a sample of 179 domestic and 167 international SBUs, the results suggest that market-driven organizational learning in the strategic sourcing units influences customer satisfaction, relationship commitment, and cycle time of the sourcing process. However, while the set of learning orientations appears to be strategically robust across the four quadrant scenarios (moderator settings), the sourcing situations differ somewhat in the specific tactical learning orientations preferred.     

Organizational Learning in Global Purchasing: A Model and Test of Internal Users and Corporate Buyers*

This research examines a model centered on organizational learning in purchasing. Two different studies are conducted to test the hypotheses among purchasing users (Study 1) and buyers (Study 2). The user sample consists of users representing 355 strategic business units of a Fortune 500 multinational corporation. The buyer sample consists of corporate buyers of 200 multinational corporations drawn from the membership directory of the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM). In each study, the focus is on the learning relationships between corporate buyers and internal users in the purchasing organization. Based on the two studies, the results suggest that organizational learning in the purchasing process is influenced by the organizational culture factors of localness, transformational leadership, and openness. Organizational learning has a positive effect on information processing in the purchasing system, which, in turn, has a positive influence on the cycle time of the purchasing process.     

The influence of dual‐identity development on the psychosocial functioning of African‐American gay and bisexual men

To examine the influence of racial‐ethnic and sexual identity development on the psychosocial functioning of African‐American gay and bisexual men (AAGBM), 174 AAGBM completed questionnaire packets designed to assess their levels of racial‐ethnic and sexual identity development, self‐esteem, social support, male gender role stress, HIV prevention self‐efficacy, psychological distress, and life satisfaction. The results indicate that AAGBM who possess more positive (i.e., integrated) seif‐identification as being African American and gay reported higher levels of self‐esteem, HIV prevention self‐efficacy, stronger social support networks, greater levels of life satisfaction, and lower levels of male gender role and psychological distress than their counterparts who reported less positive (i.e., less well integrated) African‐American and gay identity development. Although higher levels of racial‐ethnic identity development were associated with greater levels of life satisfaction, sexual identity development was not.     

Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?

Recent literature finds that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor force participation rate, which until the beginning of the 1980s had a negative value, has since acquired a positive value. This result is (explicitly or implicitly) often interpreted as evidence for a changing sign in the time-series association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries. This paper shows that the time-series association between fertility and female employment does not demonstrate a change in sign. Instead, the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation is most likely due to a combination of two elements: First, the presence of unmeasured country-specific factors and, second, country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment. However, the paper does find evidence for a reduction in the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment after about 1985.I benefited from stimulating discussions with Arnstein Aassve, Pau Baizan, Francesco Billari, Henriette Engelhardt, Hans-Peter Kohler and Alexia Prskawetz and a seminar in Rostock. Further, I am grateful to two anonymous referees for very useful suggestions that improved essentially the content of the paper. In addition, I thank Susan Masur, Susann Backer, and Elizabeth Zach for language editing. The views expressed in this paper are the authors own views and do not necessarily represent those of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Policy instrument affordances: a framework for analysis

The present study uses the concept of technological efficacy derived from ecological psychology and design studies to offer an alternative way of analyzing how policy instruments affect change. Reasoning from this, the paper outlines a framework for analyzing policy instruments in terms of their affordances. We define affordances as the means through which an instrument exerts influence on its intended target audience. Using this approach, we contend that policy instruments may be analyzed as interfaces that organize social relations and create structures of opportunity and/or restrict possibilities for action. We argue that explicating the pathways through which instruments afford or constrain action is a central task for policy analysis. Our proposed framework of analysis builds on the idea that instruments yield effects by facilitating action and learning. We further contend that the actions that an instrument can facilitate or inhibit are determined by specific affordance modalities of the instrument in conjunction with contingencies of the actor and the policy environment. Examples from research policy are used to illustrate some of these effects.