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本文利用中国29个省份20年的面板数据,探讨了人口结构变化对储蓄、投资和经济增长的影响。我们将人口结构指标引入传统的经济增长模型中,并用固定效应模型和SYS-GMM计量方法分别测算其对储蓄、投资和经济增长的效应。考虑到老年抚养比在经济增长方程的内生性,我们还将滞后30年的就业人数比率作为工具变量来识别老年抚养比对经济增长的因果效应。结果显示老年抚养率对储蓄、投资和经济增长存在显著的正相关。人口增长率对储蓄和投资有着负相关,但对经济增长没有影响。工作年龄人口比率对储蓄率存在负相关,对投资和经济增长存在正向影响但估计的回归系数不显著。在加入其它制度和人口变量之后回归结果依然稳定。 相似文献
123.
Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged > or = 18 who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy in the near future. After an 11- to 26-month follow-up period, 160 respondents remained (85.1%; mean age 21.0 years, 58.1% females): 65 who took ecstasy at least once (ecstasy users) and 95 non-users. At baseline and four times during follow-up, respondents completed self-report questionnaires. Cox regression analysis was used to examine the effects of baseline respondent characteristics on incident ecstasy use. Development of peer group ecstasy use was analyzed by logistic regression. Intention to use ecstasy, low education, and current weekly cannabis use independently increased the hazard rate for first ecstasy use. Although ecstasy use among peers at baseline was not a predictor, the proportion of ecstasy users with ecstasy-using peers increased markedly during the study. Our results suggest that targeted prevention activities should focus in particular on young people who have strong intentions to take ecstasy, especially if they are also regular smokers of cannabis. 相似文献
124.
Amodeo M Chassler D Oettinger C Labiosa W Lundgren LM 《Evaluation and program planning》2008,31(1):102-112
Client drop out from treatment is of great concern to the substance abuse field. Completion rates across modalities vary from low to moderate, not ideal since length of stay has been positively and consistently associated with better client outcomes. The study explored whether client characteristics shown to be related to retention were associated with treatment completion and treatment duration for a sample of 164 Latino substance users who entered a culturally focused residential program. In-person client interviews were conducted within a week of program admission. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine research questions. Clients most likely to drop out had self-reported co-occurring psychiatric diagnoses; they were 81% less likely to complete the program, suggesting that clients with mental health problems have a more difficult time remaining in residential treatment. Clients using drugs in the three months prior to entry were three and a half times more likely to be in the shorter stay group, and clients who lived in institutions prior to program entry were three times more likely to be in the longer-stay group. Factors contributing to drop out for this Latino sample were similar to those identified in the literature for non-Latino samples. Methods for addressing the needs of clients with co-occurring disorders are discussed. 相似文献
125.
Zakocs RC Tiwari R Vehige T DeJong W 《Journal of American college health : J of ACH》2008,57(2):233-241
OBJECTIVE: A campus-community partnership can be an effective vehicle for launching environmental strategies to prevent college alcohol-related problems. In this study, the authors' primary aim was identifying key factors that facilitate or impede colleges' efforts to build campus-community partnerships. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: From fall 2004 to summer 2006, administrators at five 4-year colleges participated in a multisite case study. Level of partnership development was the primary outcome. RESULTS: Three interrelated factors facilitated higher-developed partnerships: college staff assigned to facilitate the partnerships who worked as community organizers, higher-level college administrators who served as aggressive champions, and community initiation of the partnership. The authors did not observe this trio of factors among the less-developed partnerships. A lack of administrative support made it more difficult for a champion to emerge, a college administrator who staunchly advocated for a campus-community partnership, and for those assigned to facilitate the partnership to carry out their work. CONCLUSIONS: Colleges should appoint higher-level administrators to serve as champions, while also ensuring that those assigned to facilitate a partnership can apply community organizing skills. 相似文献
126.
This article presents an historical review of the organization known as Student Health Services at Academic Medical Centers (SHSAAMc). The authors discuss characteristics of health service directors as well as the history of meetings, discussion, and leadership. The focus of the group is the healthcare needs of health professions students at academic medical centers. 相似文献
127.
Southwell J Boreham P Laffan W 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2008,24(2):151-174
Local gambling venues are an important contemporary context for older people's gambling in many parts of the world typically being more accessible to this segment of the population than traditional, centralised gambling venues, such as casinos. This study, undertaken in South East Queensland, analyses older people's electronic gaming machine (EGM) behaviour and motivations, specifically in the context of licensed social and recreational clubs-a popular local gambling venue in many parts of Australia. The study gathered data via a postal survey of 80 managers of licensed clubs, interviews with Gambling Help services and a survey of 414 people aged 60+ who regularly play EGMs, self-administered on site at local clubs. The analysis undertaken suggests that certain age-related circumstances of older people-such as being without a partner, having a disability that impacts on everyday activities, having a low annual income, and no longer participating in the workforce-are associated with higher overall levels of motivation for playing EGMs and greater reliance on EGMs to meet social, recreational and mental health needs. Over a quarter of the older people surveyed (27%) reported drawing on their savings to fund their EGM gambling. Certain categories of older people, including those who were without a partner and those with a disability, were more likely to report drawing on their savings to fund EGM play and betting more than they could afford to lose, pointing to age-related vulnerabilities older people may experience to the negative impacts of gambling given the greater likelihood of their dependency on smaller, fixed incomes. The explanatory contribution of a range of demographic and motivational variables on problem/moderate risk gambling status was computed via a logistic regression model. Younger age (60-69), male gender, single marital status and being motivated to play EGMs to experience excitement and to win money all emerged as significant predictors in the model. 相似文献
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129.
What are the preconditions for right-wing extremist violence among German youths? For several years, the rate of this violence has been increasing in Germany, and the same can be observed for right-wing extremist orientations characterized by the coming together of ideologies of unequal worth and the acceptance of violence as a mode of action. And although it is emphasized that approval of and willingness to use violence do not automatically lead to actual acts of violence, this article suggests that the existence of these convictions in society helps to legitimize attitudes that become expressed in violence, in particular among youths.This article presents a five-stage process model that portrays the underlying preconditions for acts of right-wing extremist violence, the contexts in which such violence takes place, and the factors that cause it to escalate. This structural model is used to outline central empirical findings of recent German quantitative and especially qualitative studies about right-wing extremist violent offenders. For analytical reasons, the basic elements of the process model (socialization, organization, legitimation, interaction, and escalation) are treated separately. The authors also examine right-wing extremist violence from a disintegrative perspective. Given that intersubjective recognition is an existential human need, right-wing extremist violence is understood as a "productive" way of dealing with individual recognition deficits. On the basis of the integration dimensions of social disintegration theory, three fundamental recognition needs are distinguished. Right-wing extremist violence can best be explained as a consequence of recognition deficits in all three central integration dimensions. 相似文献
130.