Weighted simulated integrated conditional moment tests for parametric conditional distributions of stationary time series processes

In this article, we propose a weighted simulated integrated conditional moment (WSICM) test of the validity of parametric specifications of conditional distribution models for stationary time series data, by combining the weighted integrated conditional moment (ICM) test of Bierens (1984 Bierens, H. J. (1984). Model specification testing of time series regressions. Journal of Econometrics 26:323–353.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) for time series regression models with the simulated ICM test of Bierens and Wang (2012 Bierens, H. J., Wang, L. (2012). Integrated conditional moment tests for parametric conditional distributions. Econometric Theory 28:328–362.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) of conditional distribution models for cross-section data. To the best of our knowledge, no other consistent test for parametric conditional time series distributions has been proposed yet in the literature, despite consistency claims made by some authors.     

中国人均碳排放权分配方案预测研究

气候变化是21世纪最严重的全球性问题之一.即使《巴黎协议》获得通过,仍有许多国家采取各种方式拒绝承担减排责任.已有减排分配方案也多是临时性的,尚有许多争议.为了能更好地完善后续减排分配方案,很多学者都对国家减排责任的分配进行了探讨,但是由于以下缺点:否认发达国家需要承担的历史减排责任或发展中国家对未来的减排责任,因此不能提供更为公平的分配方案.在此背景下,文章旨在预测中国到2050年碳排放量,以人均碳排放量为基础,分析中国的碳排放权.     

概率论中随机变量函数若干问题探讨

文章给出了连续型随机变量差以及积的分布密度公式.针对两个独立同服从标准正态分布的随机变量详细推导了其积的分布密度公式和特征函数,并给出了涉及标准正态分布随机变量乘积函数分布的几个结论.     

基于强化区间线性规划的工程项目模糊多目标均衡优化

文章考虑工程项目实施过程中的不确定因素,建立工期、成本、质量模糊均衡优化(FTCQP)模型;运用分解定理、强化区间线性规划(EILP)方法,求出各目标的最优值区间;进一步引入模糊偏好关系,运用模糊折衷规划法,得到FTCQP模型的最优模糊折衷解.最后通过案例分析验证了方法的合理性、有效性和可操作性.     

经济景气指标与实际GDP增长率的混频预测

文章通过构建月度景气指标与季度实际GDP增长率之间的混频动态向量自回归模型,并采用期望最大值算法和卡尔曼滤波来实现混频数据和缺失数据的估计和迭代预测.大量月度景气指标的MFVAR模型的伪实时数据的多步滚动迭代样本外预测结果表明:虽然不同类别的月度景气变量在不同预测期的预测结果存在一定的差异,但实时预报、短期预测,以及组合预测结果均表明混频动态向量自回归预测模型对我国季度实际GDP增长率的实时预报和短期预测具有精确性、有效性与适用性.     

指数-威布尔分布参数贝叶斯估计的混合Gibbs算法

文章利用混合Gibbs算法分别在分组数据和定数截尾场合给出了指数-威布尔分布参数的贝叶斯估计,并进行了Monte-Carlo模拟.结果表明:在两种不完全数据场合,用混合Gibbs算法求指数-威布尔分布参数的贝叶斯估计,结果令人满意,该算法可行、稳定且精度高.     

Some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotical independence with applications to risk theory

In this article we obtain some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent (pQAI) random variables. Concretely speaking, let X₁, …, X_n be n real-valued pQAI random variables, and W₁, …, W_n be another n non negative and arbitrarily dependent random variables, but independent of X₁, …, X_n. Under some mild conditions, we prove that W₁X₁, …, W_nX_n are still pQAI as well. Our result is in a general setting whether the primary random variables X₁, …, X_n are heavy-tailed or not. Finally, a special case of above result is applied to risk theory for investigating the finite-time ruin probability for a discrete-time risk model with a wide type of dependence structure.     

Vine copula constructions of higher-dimensional dependent reliability systems

Copulas have proved to be very successful tools for the flexible modeling of dependence. Bivariate copulas have been deeply researched in recent years, while building higher-dimensional copulas is still recognized to be a difficult task. In this paper, we study the higher-dimensional dependent reliability systems using a type of decomposition called “vine,” by which a multivariate distribution can be decomposed into a cascade of bivariate copulas. Some equations of system reliability for parallel, series, and k-out-of-n systems are obtained and then decomposed based on C-vine and D-vine copulas. Finally, a shutdown system is considered to illustrate the results obtained in the paper.     

去工业化促进了服务业效率提升吗

世界产业发展史表明,当一国进人工业化中后期,随着生产效率大幅提升,其产业结构演变亦呈现出明显的去工业化特征.以工业化国家为参照,现阶段我国人均收入远未达到工业化国家去工业化时的水平,此时收缩工业产出和就业规模,可视为一种被动去工业化,客观上不利于服务业效率的提升.本文利用2005-2014年我国制造业和服务业数据估计了去工业化对服务业效率的影响.在控制住市场结构和所有制结构等因素的影响后,研究结果显示:①去工业化与服务业效率之间呈现负相关关系;②去工业化通过提高劳动力成本对传统服务业效率产生负效应;③去工业化通过削弱制造业对服务业的有效需求从而不利于生产性服务业效率的提升.     

融资融券制度与市场定价效率——基于卖空摩擦的视角

我国融资融券制度不同于国外成熟市场的一个重要特征是存在较大的卖空摩擦,但这一卖空摩擦对市场定价效率的影响及其作用机制尚未被研究揭示.本文运用双重差分固定效应模型、处理效应模型和倾向性匹配双重差分模型,研究了融资融券制度中的卖空摩擦对市场定价效率的影响及其内在机制.实证结果表明,融资融券制度中的卖空摩擦抑制了市场参与者对公司特质信息的充分挖掘,促使其过度利用市场或行业信息进行交易,从而延缓了公司特质信息融入股价,加速了市场或行业信息融入股价,最终加剧了股价同涨同跌现象,不利于市场定价效率的提高.本文研究结论为监管部门合理扩大融资融券标的范围、降低交易成本和交易门槛,营造高效的市场环境提供了依据和思路.