Systemische Resilienz – Die Perspektiven und das Resilienz-Quadarat

In the article results of resilience research are presented and a systemic concept of resilience is derived, which differentiates the term from other models regarding psychic health. The resilience square shows essential factors for resilience. Based on this the idea of resilience is transferred to systems and organizations. The article deepens the resilience approach of Mohr (2016).     

Community councils as a medium for public participation: a case study in Grampian region

Planning authorities in Scotland are obliged to consult the public before finalising policies and proposals to be included in their development plans. Community councils are intended to operate as ‘the voice of a neighbourhood’ and this paper analyses an attempt by a regional planning authority to use community councils as a vehicle for consulting the public in the preparation of a structure plan for a rural area. The paper concludes that the attempt was unsuccessful because the community councils were not clear about the role they were expected to play; nor were they adequately prepared for their role. The authors believe, however, that the involvement of community councils has potential for promoting greater public participation in the preparation of development plans.     

Using the EM-algorithm for survival data with incomplete categorical covariates

Incomplete covariate data is a common occurrence in many studies in which the outcome is survival time. With generalized linear models, when the missing covariates are categorical, a useful technique for obtaining parameter estimates is the EM by the method of weights proposed in Ibrahim (1990). In this article, we extend the EM by the method of weights to survival outcomes whose distributions may not fall in the class of generalized linear models. This method requires the estimation of the parameters of the distribution of the covariates. We present a clinical trials example with five covariates, four of which have some missing values.     

Touch attitudes and behaviors,recollections of early childhood touch,and social self-confidence

Subjects filled out three touch attitude scales, a measure of recollections of early childhood touch, and a social competence inventory, and then proceeded to record their touches in a log for one week. The touch questionnaires, although correlated with one another, did not predict day-to-day touching as recorded in logs. However, the results also suggest that questionnaire responses (for the one recall measure and two attitude scales) and log records are each independently predictive of social self-confidence. These findings are interpreted to mean that both positive attitudes/remembrances about touch and active engagement in touch behavior are important elements in social competence. Implications for future research are discussed, including the suggestion that the possible effects of skills training in touch on tactile attitudes, touch communication practices, and social self-esteem should be investigated.Stanley E. Jones is professor of Communication at the University of Colorado, Boulder. Brandi C. Brown is amagna cum laude honors B.A. graduate of the same institution who now resides in Nashville, TN.     

Modelling the management of underground water assets

Central to the activities of any industry is the modernization of its assets. This paper describes the application of statistical methods to the asset management plan of a large water company. A model for the underground assets is given in detail, and the extensive computations required are illustrated. A Bayesian model shows the consequences of various policy options and provides realistic measures of the uncertainty connected with them.     

New directions in binational water resource management in the U.S.-Mexico borderlands

The onset of the 21st century sees the U.S.-Mexico border facing numerous challenges in meeting demand for water resources across a diverse set of interests, while also protecting water quality and providing for in-stream uses. This chapter surveys ongoing water resource management efforts in the border region and also examines a broad transboundary water resource management literature to identify existing innovations of note and also to offer ideas for future research. The increasing role of public participation and a democratic decision and policy making process, watershed-based approaches to transboundary water resource management, and the role of water markets are useful areas of investigation uncovered. I suggest that these concepts can form the foundation for future research efforts that may be fruitful in examining the many water resource management challenges that the region will face in the future.     

Demographic Foundations of Political Empowerment in Multiminority Cities

As U.S. cities accommodate increasing ethnic and racial diversity, political choices may unify or divide their local populations. Those choices pull communities toward two different modes of pluralism: traditional “melting pot” assimilation or a complex mosaic of racial and ethnic assertiveness. Central to this issue is equity and empowerment, which may be accentuated by minority populations’ size, structure, and spatial concentration. We examine two potential modes of local empowerment: “dominance,” whereby each group is the majority of voters in single election districts (reinforcing separative tendencies), and “influence,” whereby a group gains “influential minority” status in several districts (reinforcing unifying tendencies).     

Bayes model averaging with selection of regressors

Summary. When a number of distinct models contend for use in prediction, the choice of a single model can offer rather unstable predictions. In regression, stochastic search variable selection with Bayesian model averaging offers a cure for this robustness issue but at the expense of requiring very many predictors. Here we look at Bayes model averaging incorporating variable selection for prediction. This offers similar mean-square errors of prediction but with a vastly reduced predictor space. This can greatly aid the interpretation of the model. It also reduces the cost if measured variables have costs. The development here uses decision theory in the context of the multivariate general linear model. In passing, this reduced predictor space Bayes model averaging is contrasted with single-model approximations. A fast algorithm for updating regressions in the Markov chain Monte Carlo searches for posterior inference is developed, allowing many more variables than observations to be contemplated. We discuss the merits of absolute rather than proportionate shrinkage in regression, especially when there are more variables than observations. The methodology is illustrated on a set of spectroscopic data used for measuring the amounts of different sugars in an aqueous solution.     

The Obese Smoker's Wage Penalty*

Objective. Smoking and obesity are associated with significant wage penalties when considered separately. We assess the combined effects of those behaviors. Methods. We estimate the effects of smoking and obesity on wages using multivariate regression analysis with 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. Results. The raw data indicate that obese smokers experience large earnings penalties. However, these penalties are not found to be interactive or directly causal for most of the demographic subgroups we examine. One exception is the wage penalty associated with obesity for females, which remains significant throughout the analysis. Conclusions. In the absence of a demonstrable direct causal effect of those behaviors on wages, associated individual‐specific socioeconomic factors appear to be the driving forces behind the obese smoker wage penalty. Not included, but potentially significant, are the effects of employer and customer discrimination against obese smokers and the possible labor policy implications of such discrimination.