探索民族文化发展之路

本文在总结分析"十五"期间广西民族文化工作取得的成绩的基础上,提出广西民族文化发展的思路:强化民族文化是一个民族的灵魂和根基的共识;以民族节庆为平台,广泛推崇民族文化;加强和扶持民族文化载体建设,借助现代化手段,推动民族文化走向全国、走向世界;构建"点、线、区、网"相连的民族文化体系。     

Frailty modelling approaches for semi-competing risks data

Lifetime Data Analysis - In the semi-competing risks situation where only a terminal event censors a non-terminal event, observed event times can be correlated. Recently, frailty models with an...     

Validation of Nonparametric Two-sample Bootstrap in ROC Analysis on Large Datasets

The nonparametric two-sample bootstrap is applied to computing uncertainties of measures in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis on large datasets in areas such as biometrics, speaker recognition, etc. when the analytical method cannot be used. Its validation was studied by computing the standard errors of the area under ROC curve using the well-established analytical Mann–Whitney statistic method and also using the bootstrap. The analytical result is unique. The bootstrap results are expressed as a probability distribution due to its stochastic nature. The comparisons were carried out using relative errors and hypothesis testing. These match very well. This validation provides a sound foundation for such computations.     

Stochastically optimal bootstrap sample size for shrinkage-type statistics

In nonregular problems where the conventional \(n\) out of \(n\) bootstrap is inconsistent, the \(m\) out of \(n\) bootstrap provides a useful remedy to restore consistency. Conventionally, optimal choice of the bootstrap sample size \(m\) is taken to be the minimiser of a frequentist error measure, estimation of which has posed a major difficulty hindering practical application of the \(m\) out of \(n\) bootstrap method. Relatively little attention has been paid to a stronger, stochastic, version of the optimal bootstrap sample size, defined as the minimiser of an error measure calculated directly from the observed sample. Motivated by this stronger notion of optimality, we develop procedures for calculating the stochastically optimal value of \(m\). Our procedures are shown to work under special forms of Edgeworth-type expansions which are typically satisfied by statistics of the shrinkage type. Theoretical and empirical properties of our methods are illustrated with three examples, namely the James–Stein estimator, the ridge regression estimator and the post-model-selection regression estimator.     

高校课程育人：本真、理路与评价

立德树人居于学校教育发展全局的核心位置,需要将其落实到课程育人的生动实践中。但是,在课程育人的具体实践中,仍有部分教师将其简单化为“课程+育人”的生硬结合,导致课程育人容易陷入理论教条窠臼。为此,高校教师应充分认识到高校课程育人在目标要求、重点内容、转型路径上的人性化、时代化和数字化本真意蕴,从教师素养、课程建设、课堂教学三个方面开展育人实践。在此基础上,针对具体课程的育人效果而言,可以从目标设定、内容选择、方法实施、结果呈现等方面进行评价,从而进一步推动课程育人的生动实践。     

Household Assets,the Role of Government Assistance,and Depression Among Low-Income Families in Shanghai

As China’s economy is rapidly changing from a planned to a capitalist economy, many families find themselves financially struggling. In some cases, conflicting values and attitudes may contribute to mental health challenges such as depression that would lead to further feelings of helplessness and immobilization. Using a random sample of 1006 low-income households from Pudong District of Shanghai, China, this study aims to examine the relationships between household assets, beliefs about government as the primary way to improve economic circumstances and self-reported depressive symptoms. In addition, this study investigates the mediation effects of beliefs that government is the best change agent for improved life circumstances on the relationship between household assets and depression. We found those who indicated that government was the main means for attaining a better life had significantly higher depression levels whereas higher numbers of household assets were associated with lower depression levels. We also found that viewing government as the most important change agent only partially mediated the relationship between household assets and depression (p?<?.001). Findings from this study support anti-poverty policies and social work related practice initiatives aimed at assisting low income families in China, in particular the need to address psychological as well as economic needs.

     

A Data Envelopment Analysis-Based Methodology Adopting Assurance Region Approach for Measuring Corporate Social Performance

Many research papers calculate corporate social performance (CSP) with the net score method, i.e., by subtracting the number of concerns from the number of strengths. Although widely adopted, this method implies, perhaps mistakenly, that each indicator is of equal importance and that however serious the social misconduct a firm may have engaged in, it can be completely offset by some positive social action. The method also implies that a given firm that has done both a lot of harm and a lot of good will have CSP similar to that of another firm that has done little harm and little good. In this study, however, we question the appropriateness of the net score method in terms of its ability to truly reflect CSP and truly identify the real effects of CSP on various characteristics. We therefore propose a data envelopment analysis-based methodology that adopts the assurance region approach for evaluating CSP, through which various CSP indicators are converted into a single composite measure of CSP. Our findings show that our proposed methodology consistently performs better than the net score method in evaluating CSP.

     

欧洲一体化进程中的"反一体化"分析

随着欧洲一体化的演进,反对、抵制一体化的思想与行动一直此起彼伏,反一体化伴随着一体化进程的始终."反一体化"活动主要在国家、政党和民众三个层次上展开,遍及政治、经济、社会文化等领域.其动因主要在于一体化进程对利益的重新分配所引发的复杂利益冲突和传统主权观、民族主义思想与一体化现实之间产生的尖锐对立."反一体化"对一体化进程产生了重要的影响.一方面它是一体化前进的阻力,另一方面又对一体化的发展产生了建设性的影响,使一体化能够相对稳定地向前迈进.反一体化将长期存在,并在欧洲一体化的未来发展中继续发挥自身的作用.     

Coherent mortality forecasting by the weighted multilevel functional principal component approach

In human mortality modelling, if a population consists of several subpopulations it can be desirable to model their mortality rates simultaneously while taking into account the heterogeneity among them. The mortality forecasting methods tend to result in divergent forecasts for subpopulations when independence is assumed. However, under closely related social, economic and biological backgrounds, mortality patterns of these subpopulations are expected to be non-divergent in the future. In this article, we propose a new method for coherent modelling and forecasting of mortality rates for multiple subpopulations, in the sense of nondivergent life expectancy among subpopulations. The mortality rates of subpopulations are treated as multilevel functional data and a weighted multilevel functional principal component (wMFPCA) approach is proposed to model and forecast them. The proposed model is applied to sex-specific data for nine developed countries, and the results show that, in terms of overall forecasting accuracy, the model outperforms the independent model and the Product-Ratio model as well as the unweighted multilevel functional principal component approach.