农村女性的迁移与中国自杀率的下降

我国的自杀率在过去20多年出现了一个明显下降的趋势。导致这一趋势的原因有二：一是农村自杀率的下降影响到全国自杀率的下降,二是农村自杀率的下降受到农村女性自杀率下降的左右。针对农村女性自杀率下降的原因,文中的分析着重于改变中国社会结构的大规模人口迁移,即我国境内大批农民离开乡土到城市打工。我国农民的打工潮包括女性的广泛参与。到最近几年,女性离开农村进入城市打工的人数每年有4000万之多。农村女性的大规模迁移规避了三种既往的自杀风险,即农村女性既往的从属地位、既往的家庭纠纷、既往的自杀工具。所以,农村女性的迁移是分析中国自杀率下降的关键之一。     

商业集聚内店铺的目标顾客与实际顾客差异比较

存在于商业集聚中的零售店在吸引顾客方面会受到商业集聚的影响。真正到店铺购物的顾客的构成与店铺预期的顾客构成可能存在差异,而店铺即使通过长期的经营经验,也无法准确判断其真实的顾客构成。在商业(经营)者判断其顾客构成时,对于顾客的年龄构成和月平均家庭收入构成的判断与真实状况存在较大偏差,一方面忽视了25岁以下顾客的比例,另一方面又相对高地估计了消费者的月平均家庭收入。     

勒菲弗尔“重写”理论视域下的华兹生《史记》英译

华兹生通过向西方英语世界介绍其英译的《史记》取得重大成就,享誉学界。本文借用勒菲弗尔＂重写＂理论,从意识形态和诗学形态对华译《史记》进行描述性分析,说明华译《史记》是在意识形态和诗学形态影响下对原文的操纵。华兹生成功地在原文诗学形态和译入语文化主流诗学间求得平衡,达到两者和谐相融。     

广佛同城化下荔湾区的现代产业体系建设

文章分析了广佛同城化背景下荔湾区的发展优势、劣势、机遇与挑战,提出了实现广佛产业对接,建立产业对接高地的设想及相关对策与建议：加强白鹅潭新一代CBD的规划与设计,加强土地整理、为产业发展创造良好的环境与空间,提供政策保障,加大文化营销力度,等等。     

马克思社会形态理论内在逻辑的当代解读

马克思社会形态理论是唯物史观的基础性组成部分和核心思想,它所着重说明的是人类社会的进步是一个社会形态更替和发展的有规律的历史过程.这一理论包含着对人类社会的横向说明和纵向阐释两个方面内容.当下对前者的把握需要突出地将作为历史活动主体的人的实践活动与社会形态的变化联系在一起考察;对于后者的把握需要突出地将马克思社会形态演进与资本主义社会的暂时性和历史性联系在一起考察.20世纪以来社会主义和资本主义的历史,都是马克思社会形态理论科学性的具体说明.     

Confidence intervals for finite difference solutions

Although applications of Bayesian analysis for numerical quadrature problems have been considered before, it is only very recently that statisticians have focused on the connections between statistics and numerical analysis of differential equations. In line with this very recent trend, we show how certain commonly used finite difference schemes for numerical solutions of ordinary and partial differential equations can be considered in a regression setting. Focusing on this regression framework, we apply a simple Bayesian strategy to obtain confidence intervals for the finite difference solutions. We apply this framework on several examples to show how the confidence intervals are related to truncation error and illustrate the utility of the confidence intervals for the examples considered.     

Generalized anticipated backward stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion and continuous increasing process*

This article mainly considers a new class of anticipated BSDEs driven by Brownian motion and continuous increasing process, which are called generalized anticipated backward stochastic differential equations(GABSDEs). We first give the form of GABSDEs. Then, existence and uniqueness result for GABSDEs is established as well as a comparison theorem is obtained under the certain assumptions. At last, we give an application about the duality between SDDEs and GABSDEs.     

Quickly variable selection for varying coefficient models with missing response at random

This paper focuses on the variable selections for a varying coefficient models with missing response at random. A procedure is presented by basis function approximations with smooth-threshold estimating equations. Furthermore, the proposed method selects significant variables and estimates coefficients simultaneously avoiding the problem of solving a convex optimization, which reduced the burden of computation. Compared to existing equation based approaches, our procedure is more efficient and quick. With proper choices the regularization parameter, the resulting estimates perform an oracle property. A cross-validation for tuning parameter selection is also proposed, a numerical study confirms the performance of the proposed method.