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91.
21世纪,人口老龄化将成为中国的基本国情,这不仅会影响到目前还健在的每一位中国人,而且会影响到目前尚未出生的若干代中国人。针对老年体育存在的诸多难题,应加强老年体育工作的研究,狠抓老年体育,以体现体育在人的生命过程中的作用和价值,使老年人健康长寿,提高生活质量。 相似文献
92.
解读"马克思主义中国化"的理论空间与实质 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
"马克思主义中国化"问题在当代中国被再次提出来,有其强烈的现实指向性与理论针对性,其直接的原因是为了回击五种"反"马克思主义思潮.明确马克思主义中国化的价值主旨,构成了马克思主义中国化的理论空间.从"对话"、"问题"和"方法论"三个维度审视,"马克思主义中国化"本质上是立足于中国历史与现实生活的马克思主义的"出场"过程与"在场"状态.马克思主义中固化的实质是解决"民生问题",这一问题是我们检验一切马克思主义理论构造的最终原则与价值尺度. 相似文献
93.
We propose an adaptive functional autoregressive (AFAR) forecast model to predict electricity price curves. With time-varying operators, the AFAR model can be safely used in both stationary and nonstationary situations. A closed-form maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is derived under stationarity. The result is further extended for nonstationarity, where the time-dependent operators are adaptively estimated under local homogeneity. We provide theoretical results of the ML estimator and the adaptive estimator. Simulation study illustrates nice finite sample performance of the AFAR modeling. The AFAR model also exhibits a superior accuracy in the forecast exercise of the California electricity daily price curves compared to several alternatives. 相似文献
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Sample size estimation for comparing the rates of change in two-arm repeated measurements has been investigated by many investigators. In contrast, the literature has paid relatively less attention to sample size estimation for studies with multi-arm repeated measurements where the design and data analysis can be more complex than two-arm trials. For continuous outcomes, Jung and Ahn (2004) and Zhang and Ahn (2013) have presented sample size formulas to compare the rates of change and time-averaged responses in multi-arm trials, using the generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach. To our knowledge, there has been no corresponding development for multi-arm trials with count outcomes. We present a sample size formula for comparing the rates of change in multi-arm repeated count outcomes using the GEE approach that accommodates various correlation structures, missing data patterns, and unbalanced designs. We conduct simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed sample size formula under a wide range of designing configurations. Simulation results suggest that empirical type I error and power are maintained close to their nominal levels. The proposed method is illustrated using an epileptic clinical trial example. 相似文献
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In the 1960s and 1970s, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union experienced an unanticipated stagnation in the process of mortality reduction that was accelerating in the west. This was followed by even starker fluctuations and overall declines in life expectancy during the 1980s and 1990s. We identify statistically the extent to which, since the 1990s, the countries of the post-communist region have converged as a group towards other regional or cross-regional geopolitical blocks, or whether there are now multiple steady-states (‘convergence clubs’) emerging among these countries. We apply a complex convergence club methodology, including a recursive analysis, to data on 30 OECD countries (including 11 post-communist countries) drawn from the Human Mortality Database and spanning the period 1959–2010. We find that, rather than converging uniformly on western life expectancy levels, the post-communist countries have diverged into multiple clubs, with the lowest seemingly stuck in low-level equilibria, while the best performers (e.g. Czech Republic) show signs of catching-up with the leading OECD countries. As the post-communist period has progressed, the group of transition countries themselves has become more heterogeneous and it is noticeable that distinctive gender and age patterns have emerged. We are the first to employ an empirical convergence club methodology to help understand the complex long-run patterns of life expectancy within the post-communist region, one of very few papers to situate such an analysis in the context of the OECD countries, and one of relatively few to interpret the dynamics over the long-term. 相似文献
99.
Quality of life is a complicated concept that has attracted broad attention from multiple disciplines. This article introduces a set of studies that employ diverse approaches to explore how work, vocational, and career experiences shape quality of life among migrants, and proposes a future agenda to extend this stream of research. Specifically, operationalizing quality of life in different ways, research showcased in this special issue has demonstrated how international and intranational migrants achieve, maintain, and enhance their well-being in different life domains. Reflecting on the literature and the showcased studies, this article proposes that future research should advance the current inquiry by better categorizing vocational experiences, uniquely operationalizing of quality of life in migration contexts, taking a more culturally sensitive perspective, and broadening methodological approaches. 相似文献
100.
目前,政府通过发展社会保障以增进社会和谐的政策方向基本确立,倡导残疾儿童社会保障制度的适度公正机制是基于经济发展和现代社会平等两者之间的权衡。目的是使社会成员都能够普遍以适度标准不断享受经济社会发展的成果,从而有效地实现社会整合。我国已经初步具备实现残疾儿童社会保障制度的适度公正目标的条件,基于此目标,残疾儿童的社会保障制度仍存在以下制约瓶颈:相关社会保障制度建设法规滞后;政府保障主体地位缺失,财政经费投入不足;残疾儿童参与社会保障层次低、覆盖面窄;保障政策执行部门行政多头管理。因此,残疾儿童社会保障制度的制度设计需要着重于:保持经济发展水平下残疾儿童保障支付享受标准;倡导公正和能动的残疾儿童权利保障价值取向:界定政府责任边界和立法,广泛动员社会力量;整合政府部门残疾儿童社会保障资源。 相似文献