情绪缓解方法探析：聆听脑波音乐

随着社会发展速度加快，人们负担的精神压力也越来越重，在目前的治疗基础上，研究新的更为有效的治疗方法刻不容缓。联合脑电信号和功能核磁共振信号，根据两种生理信号和音乐都具有无标度性的特点来建立对应关系，生成脑波音乐。这种脑波音乐包含有人体自身的生理信息，通过实验验证其更贴近作曲家创作的音乐。我们让具有焦虑症状的大学生聆听脑波音乐，结果表明聆听脑波音乐能一定程度上起到舒缓情绪的作用。     

医学人类学视角下促进大学生身心健康的作用机制与实践路径探究

医学人类学注重文化与健康关系的研究。本文认为,文化对大学生的身心健康具有极其重要的功能和作用,"以文促健"是医学人类学视角下促进大学生身心健康的基本观点与主张。文化对大学生身心健康促进功能的发挥在于其作用机制,在田野研究中发现和凝练的"文化对健康的输入-输出模型"以及相应的实践路径总结,是人类学视角下对大学生身心健康促进的新思考、新构建。本研究从医学人类学视角出发对大学生身心健康的促进机制与实践路径加以研究,能够从理论和实践层面加强对这一社会现实问题的认识与应对,同时为当前"新文科建设"倡导的学科交叉融合提供较好平台,还可以有效助推"健康中国"战略在高校和大学生群体中的实施。     

高等教育大众化背景下的自学考试实效性探讨——以学科型课程向应用型课程转变为视角

课程改革是自学考试制度改革的核心。由学科型课程体系向应用型课程体系转变,是高等教育大众化时代自学考试制度改革的内在要求。通过深化专业设置改革、课程设置改革和自学考试制度综合改革等方式,加强应用型课程体系建设,提高自学考试的实效性和吸引力。     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

中国城镇新增住房需求规模的测算与分析

本文围绕城镇家庭户自然增长、城镇家庭户机械增长和城镇存量住房拆除三项需求来源,设计了基于人口普查等公开统计数据定量测算城镇新增住房需求规模的系统性方法,对2001—2010年和2011—2015年间全国和各省份城镇新增住房需求规模进行测算与分析。在此期间新增住房供需关系经历了从基本均衡向供过于求的变化,同时存量住房拆除引致的被动需求取代城镇家庭户自然增长和机械增长引致的主动需求,成为新增住房需求的最主要来源。东、中、西部省份在新增需求规模、新增供需比、需求结构等方面表现出明显差异。本文还进一步对2021—2030年的发展趋 势进行了定量预测。由于三项需求来源均趋于下降,2021—2025年和2026—2030年间全国年均城镇新增住房需求规模预计将较2011—2015年间分别下降33%和53%。本文设计的城镇新增住房需求规模测算方法和预测思路能够为各级政府“十四五”住房发展规划编制、房地产企业战略制定等提供参考。     

基于HHM-RFRM的船舶航行风险评估方法研究

船舶航行风险是由各种风险因素交互作用产生。综合 HHM-RFRM 理论，构建船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型，以风险因素耦合视角探讨船舶航行风险管理问题。在船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型中结合贝叶斯定理，对船舶航行风险情景进行了定性与定量化过滤、评级。最后以大连港某从事商务活动的货船为例，验证了所提出方法的可行性。传统的风险评估方法只能评估单个风险因素对系统的影响，此评估方法克服了这一局限性，为船舶航行风险管理提供新的视角。     

英语访谈中零回指的研究

零回指是指用零代词充当回指词的回指形式,它具有代词的句法特征,但没有实际语音形式,对此回指的理解,直接影响到听者对话语的理解.旨在根据可及性理论,并结合语料中零回指先行语的句法位置,以解读英语访谈中零回指现象.通过分析语料中的395个零回指例子,发现零回指大多出现在近距离语境中;绝大多数零代词出现在主语/主题位置;零回指大多发生在无干扰性名词短语的语境中;零回指的使用具有简洁与明晰的修辞意义.     

PROVIDING GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS: ELECTORAL DELEGATION AND COOPERATION

This study experimentally examines the effect of electoral delegation on providing global public goods shared by several groups. Each group elects one delegate who can freely decide on each group member's contribution to the global public goods. Our results show that people mostly vote for delegates who assign equal contributions for every group member. However, in contrast to standard theoretical predictions for our delegation mechanism, unequal contributions across groups drive cooperation down over time, and it decreases efficiency by almost 50% compared to the selfish benchmark. This pattern is not driven by delegates trying to exploit their fellow group members, as indicated by theory. It is driven by conditional cooperation of delegates across groups. Since one of the potential sources of the resulting inefficiency is the polycentric nature of global public goods provision together with other‐regarding preferences, we use the term P‐inefficiency to describe our finding. (JEL C92, D72, H41)