"进步"的维度:学衡派的文化概念诠释

文化概念的意指不同,可能是引起现代中国关于文化问题论争的一个重要因素。在20世纪20-30年代的文化论争中,学衡派一方面指出了文化发展的非线性特征,对当时进化论引导下的“进步”的信仰有警醒作用。但另一方面,他们对建立于人性二元论基础上的道德的强调和对智识阶级文化的追求,却走入了道德决定论与理想主义的误区。     

The influence of acculturation level and family relationships on quality of life among U.S. Chinese older adults

ABSTRACT

The present study examined the influence of acculturation level and family relationships (i.e., positive family support and negative family strain) on quality of life (QOL), using the data from the Population Study of ChINese Elderly (PINE) in Chicago (N = 3159). Controlling for sociodemographic variables and health status, it was found that individuals’ acculturation level and positive family support were positively related to QOL, whereas negative family strain was negatively associated with QOL. More importantly, higher acculturation levels were associated with increased protective effects of positive family support and reduced risk effects of negative family strain on QOL among U.S. Chinese older adults.     

Deciphering blog users: young adults’ personalities,motivations, and perceived importance of blog features

The present study examines the cyberpsychology of blog readership as well as the digital content preferences of the Millennial generation by examining the links between college students’ personality traits, motivations to read blogs, and preferred blog features. Results indicate that personality influences motivations for reading blogs, which in turn helps predict perceived importance of blog characteristics. Notably, extraversion and neuroticism were related to reading blogs for social interaction; extraversion negatively predicted use of blogs to meet identity needs; openness was related to blog reading for entertainment purposes; and conscientiousness was positively associated with information seeking via blogs. Additionally, motivations for blog readership as explanatory mechanisms for the relationships found between personality traits and perceived importance of blog features are discussed.     

An Adaptive Functional Autoregressive Forecast Model to Predict Electricity Price Curves

We propose an adaptive functional autoregressive (AFAR) forecast model to predict electricity price curves. With time-varying operators, the AFAR model can be safely used in both stationary and nonstationary situations. A closed-form maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is derived under stationarity. The result is further extended for nonstationarity, where the time-dependent operators are adaptively estimated under local homogeneity. We provide theoretical results of the ML estimator and the adaptive estimator. Simulation study illustrates nice finite sample performance of the AFAR modeling. The AFAR model also exhibits a superior accuracy in the forecast exercise of the California electricity daily price curves compared to several alternatives.     

基于DPN模型的我国出口拉动增加值时滞模型

由于我国加工出口占比较高,学者们提出了区分贸易方式的非竞争型投入产出模型.该模型可以更加准确地测算我国出口对增加值的拉动,但是该模型忽略了出口对增加值拉动的时滞性,这容易产生所有效应都在当年发生的误解.文章基于区分贸易方式的非竞争型投入产出模型构建了各部门出口对增加值拉动的时滞模型.实证结果表明:非加工出口部门的时滞长于加工出口部门的时滞.     

Some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotical independence with applications to risk theory

In this article we obtain some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent (pQAI) random variables. Concretely speaking, let X₁, …, X_n be n real-valued pQAI random variables, and W₁, …, W_n be another n non negative and arbitrarily dependent random variables, but independent of X₁, …, X_n. Under some mild conditions, we prove that W₁X₁, …, W_nX_n are still pQAI as well. Our result is in a general setting whether the primary random variables X₁, …, X_n are heavy-tailed or not. Finally, a special case of above result is applied to risk theory for investigating the finite-time ruin probability for a discrete-time risk model with a wide type of dependence structure.     

与能源消耗等指标发生偏离的GDP是否可信

本文选取了1995-2014年全国30个省市数据,综合使用了向量自回归模型、参数面板模型、非参数面板模型和面板门限模型对GDP增速与电力消费增速、第二产业增速、第三产业增速、财政收入增速、货物流转增速、能源消费增速和固定资产投资增速等物理性指标间的关系进行了建模.实证研究发现,GDP增速、电力消费增速、第三产业增速、能源消费增速之间存在作用机制,但是这种影响模式并非一成不变,在不同时间段内,其模式发生改变,同时,这一影响模式也随着人均GDP的变化而发生阶段性改变.在经济新常态下,不能因为经济转型中的GDP数据与物理指数之间发生偏离,而简单否定GDP的准确性.     

模糊变权组合预测方法研究

在不确定环境组合预测中,用模糊权重系数更能体现各单项预测方法的客观表现.文章提出一种新的权重系数为三角模糊数的组合预测方法.首先建立以组合预测精确度指数最小为准则的模糊加权组合预测模型,为了避免样本数据中极端值对模型的影响,对模型进行改进,提出带有0-1变量的模糊加权组合预测模型.进一步考虑到单项预测方法在不同时刻的表现有所差异,建立基于诱导有序模糊加权平均(IOFWA)算子的模糊变权组合预测模型,该模型不仅能克服极端值的影响,而且具有更高的预测精确度.并实证验证了该方法的适用性和灵活性.