证券投资意识调查分析 —基于数据挖掘的视角

 证券公司对于客户的挖掘和分类有利于挖掘潜在客户和做出适当的营销决策。本文将决策树、逻辑斯蒂回归和贝氏机率分类算法用于判断被访者是否购买股票,以此挖掘潜在客户,用K-means聚类法将股票购买者划分不同的类型,并建议采取不同的服务和营销方式,提高客户的忠诚度。     

The Role of Emotions in Risk Communication

We present two experiments investigating the role of emotions concerning technological and natural hazards. In the first experiment, technological hazards aroused stronger emotions, and were considered to be riskier than natural hazards. No differences were found between the texts versus audio presentations. However, the presence of pictures aroused stronger emotions and increased the perceived risk. Emotions play a mediating role between hazard types and perceived risk, as well as between pictures and perceived risk. The second experiment adopted real‐world materials from webpages and TV. Emotions again play a mediating role between pictorial information and risk perception. Moreover, specific emotions were found to be associated with different types of action tendencies. For example, loss‐based emotions (e.g., fear, regret) tend to lead to prevention strategies, whereas ethical emotions (e.g., anger) lead to aggressive behavior. We also find that loss‐based emotions in the technical hazard scenario trigger more coping strategies (from prevention to retaliation) than in the natural hazard scenario.     

金融创新对货币需求影响的模型分析

本文将金融创新作为投资项目,假设了一个包含金融创新过程的初始成本。并将其导入Lucas现金预付款模型,然后利用这一拓展型模型分析了技术创新、利率变化、经济增长以及金融创新等因素对货币需求变化的影响。     

致和:徽州文化的重要特征——以徽州学者"和会朱、陆"为例

致和是徽州文化的一个重要特征.徽州学者在"和会朱、陆"历程中,作出了重要的理论贡献.朱升认为,朱、陆所分别主张的"道问学"与"尊德性"的关系是动、静关系,"如寒、暑、昼、夜之更迭而无间",缺一不可;郑玉认为,朱、陆之学各有优劣,应取长补短;赵汸认为,朱、陆思想"合并于暮岁";程敏政提出"早异晚同"说.徽州学者的这些观点直接影响了王阳明及其后学.学术的最终目的是用"和会"的方式取长补短、综合创新,这样才能创造出更加灿烂的文化.     

双解析函数的Cauchy积分公式

建立了双解析函数的积分，得到双解析函数的Ｃａｕｃｈｙ积分定理、Ｍｏｒｅｒａ定理和Ｃａｕｃｈｙ积分公式．     

物权立法的历史学思考

在人类立法史上,物权立法可谓经历了艰难曲折的过程,无论是《德国民法典》还是《法国民法典》中的物权制度,都经历了一段不平凡的过程,都是经过许多人的长期努力,在艰难曲折中才制定出来的。我国的物权立法经历了从无到有的曲折过程,它需要丰富的理论基础,适应经济运行环境,注重立法技术。现行物权法是在经历了长期的酝酿,并满足这些条件之后,才得以顺利通过的。     

无偏好市场下制造/再制造系统最优生产决策

尽管再制造可以重新获得产品的附加价值,但是再制造产品和新产品具有一定的替代性,厂商在各期应该采用何种生产策略?本文选取单一制造厂商,首先讨论无偏好市场下两期再制造最优生产策略,建立厂商利润最大化的经济优化模型;然后给出了再制造成本节约临界值,以便厂商在不同的再制造成本区域内采取合适的价格和产量决策策略;进而将模型拓展,研究无限期的最优产量和定价策略。由于不同产品的再制造成本节约s的比例并不相同,本文通过优化所得的结论进行数据模拟,研究产品回收率和降级率对s*的影响,s对厂商的产量、定价决策及利润的影响,进而分析降级率对产量和价格的影响,为厂商制定产品设计、生产和回收决策提供依据。     

信息不对称、流动性与股权结构——基于深圳证券市场的实证研究

以金融市场微观结构视角对股权结构进行研究的趋势正在兴起,本文从金融市场微观结构层面考察了在信息不对称影响下股权结构与流动性的关系,通过对在深圳证券交易所上市的2004年和2007年的样本公司研究发现,股权结构变量在2004年主要作用于信息成本来影响流动性水平,而2007年则主要通过改变交易成本来影响流动性水平.股改前的2004年,直接控股股东持股对交易成本无显著影响,而在股改后的2007年则显著增加了交易成本.随着基金的发展壮大,基金持股对流动性的影响逐渐显现,并一定程度上导致交易成本的增加.代表股权集中度的大股东个数则同时增加了信息成本和交易成本,损害了流动性水平.     

基于M-Copula-GJR-VaR模型的黄金市场最优套期保值比率研究

基于VaR的风险测度方法既侧重收益的负向波动风险,又可通过置信水平的设定满足有不同风险偏好的投资者的需求.以具有金融和商品双重属性的黄金为实证对象,充分考虑现货和期货市场的非对称性、两者之间的协整关系以及非线性相关的特征,以风险最小化为原则,建立M-Copula-GJR-VaR动态套期保值比率估计模型.采用中国市场现货价格和期货价格数据,对比分析M-Copula-GJR-VaR模型与CCC-GARCH-VaR模型、DCC-GARCH-VaR模型、Clayton Copula-GJR-VaR模型和Gumbel Copula-GJR-VaR模型的套期保值比率和套期保值效果.研究结果表明,经过4年多的发展,套期保值效率处于0.672～0.704之间的中国黄金期货市场还不成熟,套期保值功能的发挥有待提高;采用M-Copula-GJR-VaR模型估计的套期保值比率最优且套期保值效果最好,应用该模型进行黄金市场套期保值操作,可达到以相对较少的套期保值成本较大程度地规避现货市场价格风险的目的.     

Internationalization and Indigenous Technological Efforts of Emerging Economy Firms: The Effect of Multiple Knowledge Sources

Getting engaged in competitive international markets motivates exporting firms to enhance their technological competitiveness and invest in research and development (R&D). While in-house R&D investment is important for getting advanced technologies, the technologies needed by exporters located in emerging economies (EEs) typically readily exist overseas. Drawing on organizational learning literature, we argue that the R&D intensity stimulated by exporting may be reduced when 1) EE exporters are better prepared and motivated to absorb foreign knowledge, 2) foreign sources of knowledge are more available, and/or 3) local technology supply is poor. An analysis on 5592 automobile parts and component manufacturers in China during 2005–2007 supports these arguments. To compete in markets abroad, Chinese firms' R&D intensity increases with export intensity when their export intensity is low. As the export intensity exceeds a certain threshold, their R&D intensity starts to decrease as intensive exporters are better prepared and motivated to acquire knowledge from foreign sources. When substitutive foreign knowledge sources such as foreign parents and FDI spillovers in the local industry is available, firms' R&D intensity stimulated by exporting can be further reduced. Better local technology supply can increase the R&D intensity stimulated by exporting.