The Micro-Formation Mechanism of Trade Conflicts between Large Developing Countries: India’s Anti-dumping Action against China

Abstract

Employing Grossman and Helpman’s “protection for sale” model, this article uses data on anti-dumping actions from 1999 to 2009 to perform a quantitative analysis of factors influencing India’s determinations of anti-dumping duties against China, and reveals the micro-formation mechanism of economic conflicts between China and India. We find that the political power of India’s anti-dumping plaintiffs markedly increases the tariff level of its final determinations and that the relationship between the import penetration ratio and duty rates depends upon whether the plaintiffs are politically organized. Further, there is a significant positive correlation between India’s anti-dumping duty rates and its unfavorable trade balance with China. This indicates that in determining anti-dumping duties, Indian authorities are clearly influenced by the political clout of their domestic interest groups. They are also motivated by the desire to keep down China and gain the upper hand in the face-off between the “dragon and the elephant.”     

Inside the blogosphere: A taxonomy and framing analysis of abortion weblogs

This study analyses weblog abortion-related content sampled via a search and snowball method. When weblogs located inside of established media Web sites and other weblogs are compared, they are equivalent in the use of advocacy versus objectivist frames. Media weblog posts contain a political frame more frequently than non-media weblog posts do. In terms of diversity of frame, media weblogs employ more frames in their stories. Various explanations for these findings are offered in the context of current abortion-related content patterns.     

国际贸易中心指标体系构建及对上海国际贸易竞争力的评估和建议

随着长三角区域、亚洲区域市场一体化加快推进,上海国际贸易中心建设可充分利用长三角区域枢纽区位优势,从提升总部功能发力,从点上政策突破到面上统筹,对外汇、人才、贸易便利化、数据跨境流动进行系统安排,集聚跨国公司总部;从结算、采购、营销、物流、分拨等功能层面进行分类施策,推动贸易主体营运功能衍生;发挥金融、保险、咨询等专业服务优势,使上海成为长三角区域、国内企业国际营销网络的开拓通道.     

敦煌石窟中回鹘天公主服饰研究

由于五代曹氏归义军祖孙三世与回鹘联姻,在曹氏归义军时期所营建的敦煌洞窟中出现了大量穿回鹘服饰的天公主供养画像。这些回鹘天公主供养像给我们留下了研究唐五代时期回鹘贵族妇女服饰的珍贵资料,而回汉混合装也成了敦煌五代时期上层贵族妇女的时尚服饰。     

The Impact of Forecast Errors on Early Order Commitment in a Supply Chain*

Supply chain partnership involves mutual commitments among participating firms. One example is early order commitment, wherein a retailer commits to purchase a fixed‐order quantity and delivery time from a supplier before the real need takes place. This paper explores the value of practicing early order commitment in the supply chain. We investigate the complex interactions between early order commitment and forecast errors by simulating a supply chain with one capacitated supplier and multiple retailers under demand uncertainty. We found that practicing early order commitment can generate significant savings in the supply chain, but the benefits are only valid within a range of order commitment periods. Different components of forecast errors have different cost implications to the supplier and the retailers. The presence of trend in the demand increases the total supply chain cost, but makes early order commitment more appealing. The more retailers sharing the same supplier, the more valuable for the supply chain to practice early order commitment. Except in cases where little capacity cushion is available, our findings are relatively consistent in the environments where cost structure, number of retailers, capacity utilization, and capacity policy are varied.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

基于M-Copula-GJR-VaR模型的黄金市场最优套期保值比率研究

基于VaR的风险测度方法既侧重收益的负向波动风险,又可通过置信水平的设定满足有不同风险偏好的投资者的需求.以具有金融和商品双重属性的黄金为实证对象,充分考虑现货和期货市场的非对称性、两者之间的协整关系以及非线性相关的特征,以风险最小化为原则,建立M-Copula-GJR-VaR动态套期保值比率估计模型.采用中国市场现货价格和期货价格数据,对比分析M-Copula-GJR-VaR模型与CCC-GARCH-VaR模型、DCC-GARCH-VaR模型、Clayton Copula-GJR-VaR模型和Gumbel Copula-GJR-VaR模型的套期保值比率和套期保值效果.研究结果表明,经过4年多的发展,套期保值效率处于0.672～0.704之间的中国黄金期货市场还不成熟,套期保值功能的发挥有待提高;采用M-Copula-GJR-VaR模型估计的套期保值比率最优且套期保值效果最好,应用该模型进行黄金市场套期保值操作,可达到以相对较少的套期保值成本较大程度地规避现货市场价格风险的目的.     

Internationalization and Indigenous Technological Efforts of Emerging Economy Firms: The Effect of Multiple Knowledge Sources

Getting engaged in competitive international markets motivates exporting firms to enhance their technological competitiveness and invest in research and development (R&D). While in-house R&D investment is important for getting advanced technologies, the technologies needed by exporters located in emerging economies (EEs) typically readily exist overseas. Drawing on organizational learning literature, we argue that the R&D intensity stimulated by exporting may be reduced when 1) EE exporters are better prepared and motivated to absorb foreign knowledge, 2) foreign sources of knowledge are more available, and/or 3) local technology supply is poor. An analysis on 5592 automobile parts and component manufacturers in China during 2005–2007 supports these arguments. To compete in markets abroad, Chinese firms' R&D intensity increases with export intensity when their export intensity is low. As the export intensity exceeds a certain threshold, their R&D intensity starts to decrease as intensive exporters are better prepared and motivated to acquire knowledge from foreign sources. When substitutive foreign knowledge sources such as foreign parents and FDI spillovers in the local industry is available, firms' R&D intensity stimulated by exporting can be further reduced. Better local technology supply can increase the R&D intensity stimulated by exporting.     

A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

从道德主体出发来理解利己与利他的关系

作为道德生活主体的个体,其所特有的一系列规定性即人性是道德主体进行道德选择所依据的内在准绳。人性是自然性与社会历史性的辩证统一。由于对马克思主义人性观的误解,长期以来人们只重视人的社会性,忽视人的自然性,在此基础上建立的道德观是一味地强调利他,否定利己。我们应该从人性的角度出发,首先分析利己价值观存在的必然性,利己心是人求生存的一种本能需求,本身无所谓道德还是不道德,它正确与否的关键在于当个体利己时,如何处理“己”与“他”的关系。善的利己观有两个境界,一是具有广泛性的一般境界—利己不损他;二是具有先进性的较高境界—互利。