1942年青海牛瘟案述评

1942年秋,青海境内的草原上发生了特大牛瘟病疫。灾情发生后,南京国民政府采取了拨款赈济、抚恤治灾、减免赋役、设置防疫机构等一系列措施。本文依据大量的历史档案资料,在重新回顾、梳理、剖析那段惨绝人寰的历史同时,对青海牛瘟案妥为处置的历史背景及民国政府的赈灾状况进行了评述。     

建设环境友好型社会的伦理思考

人作为一种关系中的存在,对于环境的独立性始终不能摆脱其对环境的依赖性,当人认识到这种必然性时,人与环境的伦理关系就产生了.作为环境干预主体的政府、企业和普通民众在这种自我约束、自我管理的伦理建构中应该明确各自应有之责任和发挥各自应有之作用,从而共同构建环境友好型社会.     

马德新思想要义

马德新坚持务实的民族观、理性的宗教观和宽容的文化观,在极其复杂的社会环境下,试图通过政治活动与学术活动,为中国伊斯兰教和云南回族寻求一条理性的发展道路,为云南回汉冲突寻找一个可行的解决方案。由于种种原因,他的理想未能实现。但我们以为马德新务实的民族观、理性的宗教观和宽容的文化观今天依然有可取之处。     

对撒拉族女童教育状况的人类学调查与研究

撒拉族青少年的教育状况,尤其女童教育状况自20世纪80年代初以来一直不容乐观,备受关注。本文从教育人类学的角度,参考先前学者的调查结果,结合当地实际,对新世纪撒拉族女童的教育状况进行了调查与分析。在分析了影响撒拉族女童教育的主、客观两个方面的原因后,作者提出少数民族女童的教育状况,不能仅仅凭借学校教育为本来做结论,与家庭教育有关的少数民族"本土文化"教育也不容忽视。     

秦"大梓牛神"传说及其巫文化气质

从战国时代的《秦记》到六朝志怪文本,秦"大梓牛神"传说得到较为广泛的传播。古典文献对这种栖身于树的森林精灵及其灵验的类似记载,曾经形成一种特定的叙述模式或文化母题,它在人类学的视野观照下,彰显出巫文化在不同时代和民族原始遗留的世界普遍性。就其本事来考察,秦王砍伐大梓树的集体行为,实际上是古代社会结合巫舞而演示的一场较为正规性的巫术驱邪活动。     

Sourcing with Deferred Payment and Inspection under Supplier Product Adulteration Risk

We study the deferred payment and inspection mechanisms for mitigating supplier product adulteration, with endogenous procurement decision and general defect discovery process. We first derive the optimal deferred payment contract, which reveals that either entire or partial deferral can arise, depending on the moral hazard severity and the information accumulation rate. Because of the supplier's incentive to adulterate, the optimal procurement quantity under deferred payment generally is smaller than the first‐best quantity. We then investigate the inspection mechanism and characterize the equilibrium. We find that under the inspection mechanism, the optimal procurement quantity is no less than the first best. A comparison between these two mechanisms shows that the deferred payment mechanism generally can outperform the inspection mechanism when either the market size is small or the profit margin is low. However, we find that these two mechanisms can also be complementary, for which we characterize a necessary condition.     

共享单车用户机会主义行为的演化博弈分析

目前为止,共享单车用户的机会主义行为是共享单车能否发展的关键制约因素之一。基于此,尝试用演化博弈理论建立共享单车企业与用户间的演化博弈模型发掘用户的机会主义行为动因及利益相关者作用。研究表明:用户收益是其行为选择的决定性因素,用户机会主义行为收益大于规范行为收益是机会主义行为的产生根源;共享单车企业的激励约束可对用户行为起到调节作用,约束强度将对用户机会主义行为的程度产生负向影响。最后,针对演化博弈模型分析结果,提出了相应管理对策建议。     

A visualization method measuring the performance of biomarkers for guiding treatment decisions

Biomarkers that predict efficacy and safety for a given drug therapy become increasingly important for treatment strategy and drug evaluation in personalized medicine. Methodology for appropriately identifying and validating such biomarkers is critically needed, although it is very challenging to develop, especially in trials of terminal diseases with survival endpoints. The marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve serves this need by visualizing the treatment effect on survival as a function of biomarker for each treatment. In this article, we propose the weighted predictiveness curve (WPC). Based on the nature of the data, it generates predictiveness curves by utilizing either parametric or nonparametric approaches. Especially for nonparametric predictiveness curves, by incorporating local assessment techniques, it requires minimum model assumptions and provides great flexibility to visualize the marker‐by‐treatment relationship. WPC can be used to compare biomarkers and identify the one with the highest potential impact. Equally important, by simultaneously viewing several treatment‐specific predictiveness curves across the biomarker range, WPC can also guide the biomarker‐based treatment regimens. Simulations representing various scenarios are employed to evaluate the performance of WPC. Application on a well‐known liver cirrhosis trial sheds new light on the data and leads to discovery of novel patterns of treatment biomarker interactions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic comparisons on sample extremes of dependent and heterogenous observations

Stochastic comparison on order statistics from heterogeneous-dependent observations has been paid lots of attention recently. This paper devotes to investigating the ordering properties of order statistics from dependent observations. We derive the usual stochastic order for sample minimums and the second smallest order statistic, the dispersive order and the star order for minimums of samples having proportional hazards and Archimedean survival copulas. Similar ordering results are also obtained for maximums and the second largest order statistic of samples having proportional reversed hazards and Archimedean copulas. Several examples illustrating the main results are presented as well.     

论编辑现代化进程中编辑主体的继续教育

随着信息技术的发展和办刊条件的改变,编辑现代化的水平也越来越高,但由于我国的国情和历史因素,在我国编辑现代化不断发展的进程中,我国出版行业编辑主体的现代化程度已经不能适应整个出版行业的发展,继续教育是编辑主体适应编辑现代化发展,实现编辑主体现代化的必由之路.