Abundance estimation with a categorical covariate subject to missing in continuous-time capture-recapture studies

Abstract

In continuous-time capture-recapture experiments, individual heterogeneity has a large effect on the capture probability. To account for the heterogeneity, we consider an individual covariate, which is categorical and subject to missing. In this article, we develop a general model to summarize three kinds of missing mechanisms, and propose a maximum likelihood estimator of the abundance. A likelihood ratio confidence interval of the abundance is also proposed. We illustrate the proposed methods by simulation studies and a real data example of a bird species prinia subflava in Hong Kong.     

全球价值链嵌入与技术创新——基于生产分解模型的分析

基于增加值和最终产品的生产分解模型,本文对我国制造业前向与后向产业关联下的全球价值链嵌入进行测度,实证分析全球价值链嵌入对技术创新的作用机理,并在此基础上重点探讨了吸收能力与技术差距两个重要情境因素的调节作用,同时,运用双重差分、工具变量法以及GMM动态面板模型进行稳健性检验,以控制潜在的内生性问题。研究发现:①我国制造业通过嵌入全球价值链的国际间知识溢出效应促进技术创新能力的提升;②吸收能力能够强化这一正向影响关系;③技术差距在后向全球价值链嵌入对技术创新的影响关系中呈倒U 型调节作用,而在前向全球价值链嵌入对技术创新的影响关系中呈正向调节作用。本文推动了网络嵌入理论和知识溢出理论从组织网络向全球价值链领域的繁衍,丰富了全球价值链嵌入领域的研究成果,同时为我国制造业企业在参与国际分工过程中利用全球价值链嵌入实现技术创新能力提升提供重要的理论参考。     

简论古典戏曲中的“速配”现象

"速配"在古典戏曲中普遍存在,且其速度令人惊诧。究其原因,有以下几点:首先,古代礼教的严苛挤压了青年男女从容恋爱的空间,使得偶然的邂逅变成了千载难逢的旷世一遇。其次,本能压抑之后的非常方式的爆发也是促成速配的重要因素。再次,才色相倾的交往模式使得速配成为可能。同时,速配很容易构成剧情悬疑,引发观众的观赏兴趣。最后,速配作为"传奇"之"奇",在戏剧中往往可以形成"夺目"的艺术效果。     

A visualization method measuring the performance of biomarkers for guiding treatment decisions

Biomarkers that predict efficacy and safety for a given drug therapy become increasingly important for treatment strategy and drug evaluation in personalized medicine. Methodology for appropriately identifying and validating such biomarkers is critically needed, although it is very challenging to develop, especially in trials of terminal diseases with survival endpoints. The marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve serves this need by visualizing the treatment effect on survival as a function of biomarker for each treatment. In this article, we propose the weighted predictiveness curve (WPC). Based on the nature of the data, it generates predictiveness curves by utilizing either parametric or nonparametric approaches. Especially for nonparametric predictiveness curves, by incorporating local assessment techniques, it requires minimum model assumptions and provides great flexibility to visualize the marker‐by‐treatment relationship. WPC can be used to compare biomarkers and identify the one with the highest potential impact. Equally important, by simultaneously viewing several treatment‐specific predictiveness curves across the biomarker range, WPC can also guide the biomarker‐based treatment regimens. Simulations representing various scenarios are employed to evaluate the performance of WPC. Application on a well‐known liver cirrhosis trial sheds new light on the data and leads to discovery of novel patterns of treatment biomarker interactions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing Serial Correlation in Partially Linear Additive Errors-in-variables Models

This article considers testing serial correlation in partially linear additive errors-in-variables model. Based on the empirical likelihood based approach, a test statistic was proposed, and it was shown to follow asymptotically a chi-square distribution under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation. Finally, some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.     

An Improved Distribution-free EWMA Mean Chart

Control charts are effective tools for signal detection in both manufacturing processes and service processes. Much service data come from a process with variables having nonnormal or unknown distributions. The commonly used Shewhart variable control charts, which depend heavily on the normality assumption, should not be properly used here. In this article, we propose an improved asymmetric EWMA mean chart based on a simple statistic to monitor process mean shift. We explored the sampling properties of the new monitoring statistic and calculated the average run lengths of the proposed asymmetric EWMA mean chart. We recommend the proposed improved asymmetric EWMA mean chart because the average run lengths of the modified charts are more accurate and reasonable than those of the five existed mean charts. A numerical example of service times with a right skewed distribution from a service system of a bank branch is used to illustrate the application of the improved asymmetric EWMA mean chart and to compare it with the five existing mean charts. The proposed chart showed better detection performance than those of the five existing mean charts in monitoring and detecting shifts in the process mean.     

在自我叙事的表象背后--评《紫禁女》

通过对卢新华新作《紫禁女》的文本细读,在分析其感性层面的自我叙事故事基础之上,进而挖掘其理性层面所蕴涵的历史忧患意识。在肯定其梦幻、日记体、意识流等多种表现手法的同时,也中肯地指出其“载道”有余而“文学”不足的缺憾。     

社会认知信息加工模型在儿童攻击性行为研究中的应用

社会认知信息加工模型是分析和解释儿童攻击性行为产生原因的一种有效理论模型。通过这一模型,可以清晰地分析儿童在社会情境中处理问题时所采用的信息加工步骤,并从中发现攻击性儿童与非攻击性儿童在这些步骤中存在的差异。而生理因素、情感因素、生活环境因素、同伴关系和性别差异等,都是儿童社会认知信息加工过程的重要影响因素。本文试就儿童攻击性行为的社会认知信息加工过程、特征,以及儿童社会信息加工过程的诸种影响因素,作一较为详细的论述。