欧洲一体化进程中的"反一体化"分析

随着欧洲一体化的演进,反对、抵制一体化的思想与行动一直此起彼伏,反一体化伴随着一体化进程的始终."反一体化"活动主要在国家、政党和民众三个层次上展开,遍及政治、经济、社会文化等领域.其动因主要在于一体化进程对利益的重新分配所引发的复杂利益冲突和传统主权观、民族主义思想与一体化现实之间产生的尖锐对立."反一体化"对一体化进程产生了重要的影响.一方面它是一体化前进的阻力,另一方面又对一体化的发展产生了建设性的影响,使一体化能够相对稳定地向前迈进.反一体化将长期存在,并在欧洲一体化的未来发展中继续发挥自身的作用.     

Variance estimation based on blocked 3×2 cross-validation in high-dimensional linear regression

In high-dimensional linear regression, the dimension of variables is always greater than the sample size. In this situation, the traditional variance estimation technique based on ordinary least squares constantly exhibits a high bias even under sparsity assumption. One of the major reasons is the high spurious correlation between unobserved realized noise and several predictors. To alleviate this problem, a refitted cross-validation (RCV) method has been proposed in the literature. However, for a complicated model, the RCV exhibits a lower probability that the selected model includes the true model in case of finite samples. This phenomenon may easily result in a large bias of variance estimation. Thus, a model selection method based on the ranks of the frequency of occurrences in six votes from a blocked 3×2 cross-validation is proposed in this study. The proposed method has a considerably larger probability of including the true model in practice than the RCV method. The variance estimation obtained using the model selected by the proposed method also shows a lower bias and a smaller variance. Furthermore, theoretical analysis proves the asymptotic normality property of the proposed variance estimation.     

前台、帷幕、后台--民族文化保护与旅游开发的新模式探索

针对民族文化保护与旅游开发的矛盾问题,文章借用美国社会人类学家马康纳"前台、后台"理论,提出了民族文化保护与旅游开发的"前台、帷幕、后台"模式,希望通过这一新模式合理地解决民族文化保护与旅游开发之间的矛盾冲突,并以美国印第安人文化保护和世界文化遗产丽江古城等为案例进行了初步的分析,为民族文化的保护与旅游开发提供了理论和实践的依据.     

朝阳神秘之旅

寻根东北佛源东北佛教文化“祖庭”凤凰山朝阳凤凰山拥有东北最早的佛教寺院,是当之无愧的东北佛教文化的“祖庭”,有中国惟一的塔寺结合的山岳景观。御赐皇封佑顺寺佑顺寺是藏传佛教寺院,佑顺寺的建筑布局呈“盘龙式”,乾隆皇帝两次回盛京祭祖,均在这里驻跸。百年宝寺关帝庙关     

九十年代后中国电影海报设计的风格特征

电影海报除了能够提供电影的信息之外,从设计的角度来说,它还具有很强的装饰性和观赏性,并具有独特的表现形式和艺术设计规律。文章以20世纪90年代以来中国电影海报设计为研究对象,从电影海报的性质和功能入手,对90年代以来中国电影海报设计的风格特征作出简要概括。     

论政治文明的文化选择

文化即人化,它是人类所创造的精神成果和物质成果的总和;文明是文化的结晶,是文化主体对人类文化中野蛮性、愚昧性不断扬弃的结果,是人类有目的、有选择地过滤人类文化、形成合理文化内核的过程。中国当前的政治文明建设,需要走出“精华”和“糟粕”的简单二分的误区,用外来文化中国化、传统文化现代化,来开辟中国文化发展之路。弱化暴力色彩,强化仁政效应,构建中国特色的政治文明。     

Bayesian nonparametric modelling of the link function in the single-index model using a Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior

This paper proposes the use of the Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior for a new nonparametric approach to estimating the link function in the single-index model (SIM). The Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior has so far mainly been used for nonparametric density estimation. Here we modify this approach to allow for an approximation of the unknown link function. Instead of the usual Gaussian distribution, the error term is assumed to be asymmetric Laplace distributed which increases the flexibility and robustness of the SIM. To automatically identify truly active predictors, spike-and-slab priors are used for Bayesian variable selection. Posterior computations are performed via a Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs sampler using a truncation-based algorithm for stick-breaking priors. We compare the efficiency of the proposed approach with well-established techniques in an extensive simulation study and illustrate its practical performance by an application to nonparametric modelling of the power consumption in a sewage treatment plant.     

A misspecification test for the higher order co-moments of the factor model

The traditional estimation of higher order co-moments of non-normal random variables by the sample analog of the expectation faces a curse of dimensionality, as the number of parameters increases steeply when the dimension increases. Imposing a factor structure on the process solves this problem; however, it leads to the challenging task of selecting an appropriate factor model. This paper contributes by proposing a test that exploits the following feature: when the factor model is correctly specified, the higher order co-moments of the unexplained return variation are sparse. It recommends a general to specific approach for selecting the factor model by choosing the most parsimonious specification for which the sparsity assumption is satisfied. This approach uses a Wald or Gumbel test statistic for testing the joint statistical significance of the co-moments that are zero when the factor model is correctly specified. The asymptotic distribution of the test is derived. An extensive simulation study confirms the good finite sample properties of the approach. This paper illustrates the practical usefulness of factor selection on daily returns of random subsets of S&P 100 constituents.     

Lower bound of average centered L2-discrepancy for U-type designs

Uniform designs are widely used in various scientific investigations and industrial applications. By considering all possible level permutation of the factors, a connection between average centered L₂-discrepancy and generalized wordlength pattern for asymmetrical fractional factorial designs is derived. Moreover, we present new lower bounds to the average centered L₂-discrepancy for symmetrical and asymmetrical U-type designs. For illustration of the theoretical results, the lower bounds for symmetrical and asymmetrical U-type designs are tabulated, and numerical results indicate that our lower bounds behave well and can be recommended for use in practice.     

The laws of large numbers for Pareto-type random variables with infinite means

In this paper, we consider the laws of large numbers for NSD random variables satisfying Pareto-type distributions with infinite means. Based on the Pareto-Zipf distributions, some weak laws of large numbers for weighted sums of NSD random variables are obtained. Meanwhile, we show that a weak law for Pareto-Zipf distributions cannot be extended to a strong law. Furthermore, based on the two tailed Pareto distribution, a strong law of large numbers for weighed NSD random variables is presented. Our results extend the corresponding earlier ones.