中国企业呼唤敏捷制造战略

本文简述了敏捷制造战略的主要思想,指出在中国实施敏捷制造战略是当务之急。为此,需要从中国制造业的实际出发解决敏捷化的制造单元技术,以敏捷方式集成制造单元等关键问题。本文认为中国的敏捷化制造单元的构建可基于独立制造岛,提出了以虚拟企业方式实施中国的集团化经营战略的设想。     

区域主导产业评价指标与数学模型

以现有研究成果为基础,建立了区域主导产业评价指标体系;基于灰色聚类的思想,提出了评价区域主导产业优度的数学模型-定权聚类评估模型,并对河南省武陟县工业主导产业选择进行了实证研究。     

规划调整决策任务分解、认知限制与决策支持

规划调整决策问题(PCDPs-Program and Control Decision Problems)都比较宏观综合,涉及面广且结构性差,决策支持需求不易确定。本论文将通过决策任务分解说明决策认知过程,并在知识分类的基础上论述完成决策任务中的认知限制,进而从扩展决策者的认知能力出发给出了决策支持基本功能设计和开发规划调整决策支持系统(PCDSS)的三层结构。     

Multilevel models for repeated binary outcomes: attitudes and voting over the electoral cycle

Models for fitting longitudinal binary responses are explored by using a panel study of voting intentions. A standard multilevel repeated measures logistic model is shown to be inadequate owing to a substantial proportion of respondents who maintain a constant response over time. A multivariate binary response model is shown to be a better fit to the data.     

Multivariate bandwidth selection for local linear regression

The existence and properties of optimal bandwidths for multivariate local linear regression are established, using either a scalar bandwidth for all regressors or a diagonal bandwidth vector that has a different bandwidth for each regressor. Both involve functionals of the derivatives of the unknown multivariate regression function. Estimating these functionals is difficult primarily because they contain multivariate derivatives. In this paper, an estimator of the multivariate second derivative is obtained via local cubic regression with most cross-terms left out. This estimator has the optimal rate of convergence but is simpler and uses much less computing time than the full local estimator. Using this as a pilot estimator, we obtain plug-in formulae for the optimal bandwidth, both scalar and diagonal, for multivariate local linear regression. As a simpler alternative, we also provide rule-of-thumb bandwidth selectors. All these bandwidths have satisfactory performance in our simulation study.     

关于波罗的海运价格指数的研究与思考

一、问题的提出航运运价指数作为价格指数的一种,目前在航运市场中已应用得非常广泛。可以说,任何一个航运经营人或经纪人欲求得长期稳定的发展,都不能不关心有关的运价指数。目前,世界上已发布的航运运价指数有许多种。其中在世界航运界具有比较大影响的运价指数首推...     

基于T-S模糊模型的非线性组合预测方法研究

一、引言自从Ｊ．Ｍ．Ｂａｔｅｓ和Ｃ．Ｗ．Ｊ．Ｇｒａｎｇｅｒ首次提出组合预测方法［１］以来,组合预测的研究已经取得很大的进展,文献［２～６］对此有比较详细的综述和评价。根据集结或组合各单项预测模型的方式不同,组合预测一般可分为线性组合预测和非线性组合预...     

Multiple roots of estimating functions

Estimating functions can have multiple roots. In such cases, the statistician must choose among the roots to estimate the parameter. Standard asymptotic theory shows that in a wide variety of cases, there exists a unique consistent root, and that this root will lie asymptotically close to other consistent (possibly inefficient) estimators for the parameter. For this reason, attention has largely focused on the problem of selecting this root and determining its approximate asymptotic distribution. In this paper, however, we concentrate on the exact distribution of the roots as a random set. In particular, we propose the use of higher-order root intensity functions as a tool for examining the properties of the roots and determining their most problematic features. The use of root intensity functions of first and second order is illustrated by application to the score function for the Cauchy location model.     

基于超总体模型的设计效应分解

本文基于超总体模型研究抽样调查中设计效应的计算问题。首先以随机效应模型为基础，明确了简单随机、二阶段、不等概率和分层抽样对应的超总体模型，进而通过所给模型推导出分层、类集、加权单因素设计效应的计算公式和多因素组合的设计效应计算公式并给出了对应估计量，公式表明：多因素同时存在的组合设计效应等于对应单因素设计效应的乘积。最后，对设计效应的理论值、估计值和真实值之间的关系进行了蒙特卡洛仿真，并利用相对偏倚、相对均方误进行了评价。本文的研究，对复杂抽样设计中正确计算、使用设计效应具有指导意义。     

中国20世纪现代主义与现代派小说回顾

２０世纪的中国现代主义小说伴随着对外国现代派文学的引进与新文学一起成长，在大陆中断后却在台湾、香港盛极一时，世纪末又在大陆重新出现繁荣。中国现代派小说在成长中形成了与西方现代派小说不全相同的新景观，是２０世纪中国文学的重要收获。