家庭教育指导的倾向性问题和着力点

我国的家庭教育指导伴随着改革开放和社会的进步走过了近30年的历程．如今己形成蓬勃发展态势。进入21世纪以来,家庭教育指导在国家决策层面引起了高度重视。2004年党中央国务院《关于进一步加强和改进未成年人思想道德建设的若干意见》专门阐述了“重视和发展家庭教育”;2006年新修订的《未成年人保护法》规定：“有关国家机关和社会组织应当为父母或者其他监护人提供家庭教育指导。”首次以法律的形式确立了家庭教育指导的法律地位;2007年全国妇联、教育部等八部委共同制定了《全国家庭教育工作“十一五”规划》;2010年国家七部委联合颁布了《全国家庭教育指导大纲》;在前不久由党中央、国务院颁布的《国家中长期教育改革发展规划纲要》中,再次强调充分发挥家庭教育在儿童少年成长中的重要作用,并提出了制定家庭教育法律。这预示着家庭教育指导将在新的、更高层次上发展．也预示着家庭教育研究者和指导者肩负着更大、更重、更艰巨的社会责任。因此有必要对目前家庭教育指导存在的问题进行认真审视,进一步明确工作的着力点。     

Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation procedures for binary and continuous responses utilizing a gain function

One of the main aims of early phase clinical trials is to identify a safe dose with an indication of therapeutic benefit to administer to subjects in further studies. Ideally therefore, dose‐limiting events (DLEs) and responses indicative of efficacy should be considered in the dose‐escalation procedure. Several methods have been suggested for incorporating both DLEs and efficacy responses in early phase dose‐escalation trials. In this paper, we describe and evaluate a Bayesian adaptive approach based on one binary response (occurrence of a DLE) and one continuous response (a measure of potential efficacy) per subject. A logistic regression and a linear log‐log relationship are used respectively to model the binary DLEs and the continuous efficacy responses. A gain function concerning both the DLEs and efficacy responses is used to determine the dose to administer to the next cohort of subjects. Stopping rules are proposed to enable efficient decision making. Simulation results shows that our approach performs better than taking account of DLE responses alone. To assess the robustness of the approach, scenarios where the efficacy responses of subjects are generated from an E _max model, but modelled by the linear log–log model are also considered. This evaluation shows that the simpler log–log model leads to robust recommendations even under this model showing that it is a useful approximation to the difficulty in estimating E _max model. Additionally, we find comparable performance to alternative approaches using efficacy and safety for dose‐finding. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Phase I trial design for drug combinations with Bayesian model averaging

Various statistical models have been proposed for two‐dimensional dose finding in drug‐combination trials. However, it is often a dilemma to decide which model to use when conducting a particular drug‐combination trial. We make a comprehensive comparison of four dose‐finding methods, and for fairness, we apply the same dose‐finding algorithm under the four model structures. Through extensive simulation studies, we compare the operating characteristics of these methods in various practical scenarios. The results show that different models may lead to different design properties and that no single model performs uniformly better in all scenarios. As a result, we propose using Bayesian model averaging to overcome the arbitrariness of the model specification and enhance the robustness of the design. We assign a discrete probability mass to each model as the prior model probability and then estimate the toxicity probabilities of combined doses in the Bayesian model averaging framework. During the trial, we adaptively allocated each new cohort of patients to the most appropriate dose combination by comparing the posterior estimates of the toxicity probabilities with the prespecified toxicity target. The simulation results demonstrate that the Bayesian model averaging approach is robust under various scenarios. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uniform Tail Asymptotics for the Sum of Two Correlated Classes with Stochastic Returns and Dependent Heavy Tails

Consider a continuous-time risk model with two correlated classes of insurance business and risky investments whose price processes are geometric Lévy processes. By assuming that the correlation comes from a common shock, and the claim sizes are heavy-tailed and pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent, we investigate the tail behavior of the sum of the stochastic present values of the two correlated classes, and a uniform asymptotic formula is obtained.     

证伪：社会科学研究的可能与必然 兼与张杨商榷

本文针对张杨《证伪在社会科学中可能吗？》一文展开争鸣与论述,指出证伪是理论检验的必然结果之一,相对于证实而言,证伪更有效、更可靠。本文还就张杨文中对波普尔证伪理论的误解做了澄清,指出波普尔的证伪并非“单个反例证伪”,证伪、可证伪性、证伪主义三者之间也存在着明显的区别,不能加以混淆。文章就张文提出的证伪在社会科学中面临的四个挑战做出一一回应：（1）“迪昂奎因命题”不能成为证伪的诘问;（2）穆勒命题不能挑战证伪主义;（3）统计陈述不是概率陈述;（4）限界条件与证伪的结合使社会科学的理论更加科学。     

Dose‐Response Models Incorporating Aerosol Size Dependency for Francisella tularensis

The effect of bioaerosol size was incorporated into predictive dose‐response models for the effects of inhaled aerosols of Francisella tularensis (the causative agent of tularemia) on rhesus monkeys and guinea pigs with bioaerosol diameters ranging between 1.0 and 24 μm. Aerosol‐size‐dependent models were formulated as modification of the exponential and β‐Poisson dose‐response models and model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood methods and multiple data sets of quantal dose‐response data for which aerosol sizes of inhaled doses were known. Analysis of F. tularensis dose‐response data was best fit by an exponential dose‐response model with a power function including the particle diameter size substituting for the rate parameter k scaling the applied dose. There were differences in the pathogen's aerosol‐size‐dependence equation and models that better represent the observed dose‐response results than the estimate derived from applying the model developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP, 1994) that relies on differential regional lung deposition for human particle exposure.     

地区间个人收入差距的状况及特点(英文)

在地区收入差距的文献中,一直缺乏从个人收入角度出发的研究;而关于个人收入分配的研究,也很少考察地区差异。文章使用2005年全国1％人口普查数据,从个人收入角度描述了全国及（几种不同定义下的）地区间的个人收入差距,并分析了影响个人收入差距的因素,得到了一些有意义的结果。     

让民族音乐之花在校园绽放

文章阐述了弘扬民族音乐的重要意义,分析了目前高校民族音乐教育的现状,指出了弘扬民族音乐对培养德智体美全面发展的大学生的重要作用,并阐述了在校园普及民族音乐的方法.重点围绕构建民族音乐教育体制,开设相关民族音乐课程,让学生了解民族音乐,加强学生的民族音乐文化基础.通过多样的教学形式,把民间文化请进课堂,把课堂搬到民间,让学生在原生文化场景中感受民族民间音乐的独特性.     

高等职业院校英语教学模式的探索

高等职业教育英语教学应改革传统模式,有效地运用现代教育技术手段,使课堂教学与开放式自主学习相结合,光盘多媒体教学与网络教学相结合,将现代教育技术手段及口语教学方法带入英语课堂。