Approximating the risk score for disease diagnosis using MARS

In disease screening and diagnosis, often multiple markers are measured and combined to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. McIntosh and Pepe [Combining several screening tests: optimality of the risk score, Biometrics 58 (2002), pp. 657–664] showed that the risk score, defined as the probability of disease conditional on multiple markers, is the optimal function for classification based on the Neyman–Pearson lemma. They proposed a two-step procedure to approximate the risk score. However, the resulting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is only defined in a subrange (L, h) of false-positive rates in (0,1) and the determination of the lower limit L needs extra prior information. In practice, most diagnostic tests are not perfect, and it is usually rare that a single marker is uniformly better than the other tests. Using simulation, I show that multivariate adaptive regression spline is a useful tool to approximate the risk score when combining multiple markers, especially when ROC curves from multiple tests cross. The resulting ROC is defined in the whole range of (0,1) and is easy to implement and has intuitive interpretation. The sample code of the application is shown in the appendix.     

国际上非基准年购买力平价推算方法评价

 全球国际比较项目大约每隔5年或6年调查一次,有关国际组织应用总量外推法、分类项目外推法、基期滚动法和简缩信息法等方法推算非基准年的PPP数据,以便取得完整的连续时间序列。本文对国际上常用的各种非基准年PPP推算方法和结果作详细分析、评价。     

An efficient sequential design of clinical trials

We propose an efficient group sequential monitoring rule for clinical trials. At each interim analysis both efficacy and futility are evaluated through a specified loss structure together with the predicted power. The proposed design is robust to a wide range of priors, and achieves the specified power with a saving of sample size compared to existing adaptive designs. A method is also proposed to obtain a reduced-bias estimator of treatment difference for the proposed design. The new approaches hold great potential for efficiently selecting a more effective treatment in comparative trials. Operating characteristics are evaluated and compared with other group sequential designs in empirical studies. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the method.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of the bimodal failure rate for censored and tied observations

DIMITROV, RACHEV and YAKOVLEV ( 1985 ) have obtained the isotonic maximum likelihood estimator for the bimodal failure rate function. The authors considered only the complete failure time data. The generalization of this estimator for the case of censored and tied observations is now proposed.     

An Extension of Economic Design of x-Bar Control Charts for Non Normally Distributed Data Under Weibull Shock Models

Three parameters—sample size, sampling intervals, and the control limits—must be determined when the x bar chart to monitor a manufacturing process. The constant sampling intervals were widely employed because of its administrative simplicity. However, the variable sampling interval (VSI) has recently been shown to give substantially faster detection of most process shifts than fixed-sampling-interval (FSI) for x-bar charts. In addition, these measurements in the subgroup are assumed to be normally distributed. That assumption may not be tenable. This investigation compares the economic design of x-bar control charts for non normal data under Weibull shock models with various sampling avenues.     

Modeling of covariance structures of random effects and random errors in linear mixed models

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss how to model the mean and covariancestructures in linear mixed models (LMMs) simultaneously. We propose a data-driven method to modelcovariance structures of the random effects and random errors in the LMMs. Parameter estimation in the mean and covariances is considered by using EM algorithm, and standard errors of the parameter estimates are calculated through Louis’ (1982 Louis, T.A. (1982). Finding observed information using the EM algorithm. J. Royal Stat. Soc. B 44:98–130. [Google Scholar]) information principle. Kenward’s (1987 Kenward, M.G. (1987). A method for comparing profiles of repeated measurements. Appl. Stat. 36:296–308.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) cattle data sets are analyzed for illustration,and comparison to the literature work is made through simulation studies. Our numerical analysis confirms the superiority of the proposed method to existing approaches in terms of Akaike information criterion.     

The MLE of Geometric Parameter for a Geometric Process

In this article, we provide the MLE of the ratio parameter of a geometric process and discuss its consistency and asymptotic normality.     

Concurrent Design for Process Quality,Statistical Tolerance,and SPC

The rapid response to the requirements of customers and markets promotes the concurrent engineering (CE) technique in product and process design. The decision making for process quality target, SPC method, sampling plan, and control chart parameter design can be done at the stage of process quality plan based on historical data and process knowledge database. Therefore, it is a reasonable trend to introduce the concepts and achievements on process quality evaluation and process capability analysis, CE, and SPC techniques into process plan and tolerance design. A new systematic method for concurrent design of process quality, statistical tolerance (ST), and control chart is presented based on a NSFC research program. A set of standardized process quality indices (PQIs) for variables is introduced for meeting the measurement and evaluation to process yield, process centering, and quality loss. This index system that has relatively strong compatibility and adaptability is based on raisonne grading by using the series of preferred numbers and arithmetical progression. The expected process quality based on this system can be assured by a standardized interface between PQIs and SPC, that is, quality-oriented statistical tolerance zone. A quality-oriented ST and SPC approach that quantitatively specifies what a desired process is and how to assure it will realize the optimal control for a process toward a predetermined quality target.     

Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture model

In the Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture census, different diffuse prior distributions can lead to markedly different inferences about the population size N. Through consideration of the Fisher information matrix it is shown that the number of captures in each sample typically provides little information about N. This suggests that if there is no prior information about capture probabilities, then knowledge of just the sample sizes and not the number of recaptures should leave the distribution of Nunchanged. A prior model that has this property is identified and the posterior distribution is examined. In particular, asymptotic estimates of the posterior mean and variance are derived. Differences between Bayesian and classical point and interval estimators are illustrated through examples.