Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture model

In the Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture census, different diffuse prior distributions can lead to markedly different inferences about the population size N. Through consideration of the Fisher information matrix it is shown that the number of captures in each sample typically provides little information about N. This suggests that if there is no prior information about capture probabilities, then knowledge of just the sample sizes and not the number of recaptures should leave the distribution of Nunchanged. A prior model that has this property is identified and the posterior distribution is examined. In particular, asymptotic estimates of the posterior mean and variance are derived. Differences between Bayesian and classical point and interval estimators are illustrated through examples.     

A formula for a missing plot in a general incomplete block design,when recovery of interblock information is used

In this paper, Yate's missing plot technique is used to derive the formula for substitution in a missing plot in a general incomplete block design, where blocks are assumed to be independent normal. The use of penalized normal equations, using BLUPS, makes this task simpler.     

Inference of non-centrality parameter of a truncated non-central chi-squared distribution

Non-central chi-squared distribution plays a vital role in statistical testing procedures. Estimation of the non-centrality parameter provides valuable information for the power calculation of the associated test. We are interested in the statistical inference property of the non-centrality parameter estimate based on one observation (usually a summary statistic) from a truncated chi-squared distribution. This work is motivated by the application of the flexible two-stage design in case–control studies, where the sample size needed for the second stage of a two-stage study can be determined adaptively by the results of the first stage. We first study the moment estimate for the truncated distribution and prove its existence, uniqueness, and inadmissibility and convergence properties. We then define a new class of estimates that includes the moment estimate as a special case. Among this class of estimates, we recommend to use one member that outperforms the moment estimate in a wide range of scenarios. We also present two methods for constructing confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed point and interval estimates.     

Approximating the risk score for disease diagnosis using MARS

In disease screening and diagnosis, often multiple markers are measured and combined to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. McIntosh and Pepe [Combining several screening tests: optimality of the risk score, Biometrics 58 (2002), pp. 657–664] showed that the risk score, defined as the probability of disease conditional on multiple markers, is the optimal function for classification based on the Neyman–Pearson lemma. They proposed a two-step procedure to approximate the risk score. However, the resulting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is only defined in a subrange (L, h) of false-positive rates in (0,1) and the determination of the lower limit L needs extra prior information. In practice, most diagnostic tests are not perfect, and it is usually rare that a single marker is uniformly better than the other tests. Using simulation, I show that multivariate adaptive regression spline is a useful tool to approximate the risk score when combining multiple markers, especially when ROC curves from multiple tests cross. The resulting ROC is defined in the whole range of (0,1) and is easy to implement and has intuitive interpretation. The sample code of the application is shown in the appendix.     

地方政府权力清单制度法治化研究

地方政府权力清单制度的法治化是通过法律规范地方各级政府及其部门的权力以清单的形式详细清晰地予以公布,并产生强制性的约束力,规范政府的权力边界,要求政府必须按照清单所列权力依法行政,不允许越权执法,旨在制约行政权力,保障公民权利。本文基于行政法定原则、行政公开原则、行政便民原则阐释了地方政府权力清单制度法治化的理论基础,然而,地方政府权力清单制度的实践中仍存在一些问题,应当从权力类型的科学化管理和权力清单范围全覆盖等方面优化权力清单的内容,从权力清单制定主体、权力行使的程序和清单制度的实施方式等方面提供程序性的保障,从权力清单的责任约束和有效监督方面建立刚性制约机制,以此来完善地方政府权力清单制度的法治化,防止行政权力的滥用,推进法治政府的建设。     

论鲁迅小说的非常规修辞艺术

鲁迅的小说集《呐喊》与《彷徨》是一部"语言的艺术作品"。作为语言艺术大师,鲁迅非常重视修辞,非常善于修辞。他的小说内蕴着伟大的精神、广播的知识和真知灼见,同时又体现了高超的修辞技巧和独特的语言风格。这主要体现在:丰富独创的辞格运用;古朴凝练的短句艺术;多彩精湛的语言变异艺术。     

转型期民事纠纷的可诉范围研究——以诉的利益为视角

民事纠纷如果需要通过诉讼方式解决,必须具备"可诉性"或"可司法性",即具备由诉讼来解决纠纷所需要的条件或特征.关于纠纷的可诉性问题,我国<民事诉讼法>的规定是模糊、不确定的.本文分析了现行法律规定下,纠纷可诉性范围存在的问题,引申出"诉的利益"的概念.诉的利益是我国诉讼法上所没有的概念,通过对诉的利益的分析,纠纷的可诉性可以得到合理的界定.此外,还对诉的利益的制度保障提出了对策和思路,并建议完善诉讼外的纠纷替代性解决机制.     

幼儿冒险游戏水平与抗挫折能力的关系：自我效能感的中介作用

为考察幼儿冒险游戏水平与抗挫折能力的关系,及考察自我效能感在两者关系中的中介作用,本研究随机选取浙江省杭州市148名幼儿为被试,通过任务测评法评定幼儿的冒险游戏水平和自我效能感,通过教师问卷评定报告幼儿的抗挫折能力。结果表明：幼儿冒险游戏水平、自我效能感、抗挫折能力发展良好;冒险游戏水平直接正向预测抗挫折能力,并通过自我效能感间接预测抗挫折能力。     

我国各民族交往交流交融的空间生产与实践路径

各民族交往交流交融是铸牢中华民族共同体意识的路径选择。民族社会结构的存在和发展为各民族交往交流交融提供了可实现的行动空间及空间生产基础,运用空间生产理论对民族交往交流交融的空间生产与空间结构进行分析,即各民族交往的物质空间生产是基于共同利益与互惠发展的经济交往、各民族交流的符号空间生产是注重共有价值和情感寄托的文化交流、各民族交融的精神空间生产是强调生活互嵌和共生体验的精神交融。基于此,加强各民族交往交流交融的实践路径应是推动民族地区经济交往,构建以平衡互惠为原则的多民族经济圈;促进民族乡土文化交流,发展以情感共鸣为重心的乡村文化中心;深化各族群众生活交融,规划以结构互嵌为内核的社区公共空间。通过上述路径,达成铸牢中华民族共同体意识的根本目标。     

吴景超的工业化思想探析

优先发展以国际工业为主体的重工业 ,次则发展轻工业 ,是吴景超工业化思想的主要内容 ;因应情势为其基本特点 ,也是其思想及主张相当程度上颇受朝野上下认同之关键。吴景超的工业化思想及主张在一定程度上代表了非常时期中国工业化的方向