Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China

This article compares five currently debated scenarios for fertility policy transition in China, in terms of their implications for future population growth and population aging, the proportions of elderly living alone, labor force trends, pension deficits, economic costs, the marriage squeeze, and other socioeconomic outcomes. Based on these comparative analyses, the author concludes that China needs to begin a gradual modification of its fertility policy as soon as possible. He proposes a three‐stage “soft‐landing” strategy for fertility policy transition: (1) a 7‐year initial smooth transition period; (2) from approximately 2014‐15 to 2032‐35 a universal two‐child policy combined with late childbearing in both rural and urban areas; (3) after 2032‐35 all Chinese citizens would be free to choose family size and fertility timing. This strategy will enable China to have much more favorable demographic conditions and socioeconomic outcomes, as compared to keeping the current policy unchanged.     

U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: An Extension and Application of the ProFamy Method

The classic headship-rate method for demographic projections of households is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types without size, and does not deal with household members other than heads. By comparison, the ProFamy method uses demographic rates as input and projects more detailed household types, sizes, and living arrangements for all members of the population. Tests of projections from 1990 to 2000 using ProFamy and based on observed U.S. demographic rates before 1991 show that discrepancies between our projections and census observations in 2000 are reasonably small, validating the new method. Using data from national surveys and vital statistics, census microfiles, and the ProFamy method, we prepare projections of U.S. households from 2000 to 2050. Medium projections as well as projections based on smaller and larger family scenarios with corresponding combinations of assumptions of marriage/union formation and dissolution, fertility, mortality, and international migration are performed to analyze future trends of U.S. households and their possible higher and lower bounds, as well as enormous racial differentials. To our knowledge, the household projections reported in this article are the first to have found empirical evidence of family household momentum and to have provided informative low and high bounds of various indices of projected future households and living arrangements distributions based on possible changes in demographic parameters.     

工资变动影响中国制造业出口部门就业的机理分析

文章根据劳动经济学的派生需求理论,证明工资通过4个渠道对劳动力就业造成影响。文章的实证分析表明,工资水平的上涨对于中国制造业出口部门的就业有显著正向影响;中国制造业的产品需求弹性对工资就业效应虽然产生负向影响,但效果并不明显;其他要素的可替代性高有助于促进工资的就业效应;在中国制造业出口部门其他要素的供给弹性与工资的就业效应负相关;劳动力成本占总成本比例作为影响工资就业效应的主要因素,对其有显著的正向影响。     

消费者持续满意度研究——基于快乐适应视角

从动态视角研究消费者满意是营销学研究的前沿问题.本文从快乐适应角度考察消费者如何在消费决策过程中获得持续的满意.问卷调查研究发现,尽管不同产品的满意度会随时间的延续下降,但剔除价格变动因素后,由于互动性产品给消费者带来的快乐更不易适应,满意度并未随时间发生明显改变;情感性产品给消费者带来满意容易适应,满意度随时间的推移明显下降;实用性产品并未给消费者带来明显的情感刺激,因此,消费者对这类产品的满意度相对比较稳定.根据快乐适应理论,商品的互动性带来的消费的不易适应性是影响持续满意度的主要因素.本研究的结论为消费者、厂商、政府部门在购买商品、生产产品和制定政策等方面提供建议.     

少数民族特色村寨开发村民受益机制研究——以西江千户苗寨为例

西江千户苗寨是近几年来迅速崛起的旅游村寨,"西江模式"已经逐渐成为贵州乡村旅游的榜样,其旅游开发村民受益机制对贫困地区民族村寨的旅游开发具有一定的借鉴意义。本文在实地调研考察、走访相关部门以及对村民进行问卷调查的基础上,对其做了细致的统计分析,并对旅游开发中最突出的村民受益问题提出了相应的对策和建议。     

间歇式制度创新与中国经济波动:校准模型与动态分析

中国的经济转型实质上是制度变迁的过程。在变迁过程中制度创新不是均匀出现的,而是间歇式随机出现的。制度创新的间歇式出现是中国经济增长和波动的源泉。为此,本文在动态随机一般均衡框架下构建了一个包含制度因素的实际商业周期模型,通过对中国制度变迁的数量化测度,使得制度因素能够以量化的形式进入RBC模型。通过比较现实经济数据和模拟经济数据的特性,本文发现,模型能够解释产出周期波动的94.44%,解释66.07%的投资周期波动,解释23.46%的劳动周期波动,解释21.03%的消费周期波动,解释15.45%的资本周期波动。通过脉冲反应分析发现,制度冲击具有较长的持久性,大约30年,并且消退过程缓慢;而技术冲击衰退速度相对较快,大约10年。     

Augmented likelihood for incorporating auxiliary information into left-truncated data

Lifetime Data Analysis - Time-to-event data are often subject to left-truncation. Lack of consideration of the sampling condition will introduce bias and loss in efficiency of the estimation. While...     

现阶段大学毕业生住房问题分析及对策

随着我国近几年房价的上涨,大学毕业生们在刚毕业几年间的住房问题显得越来越突出。住房问题不仅影响他们毕业初期的几年,甚至影响其整个职业生涯的发展,同时他们住房问题解决的好坏也关系到社会的安定和团结。本文通过对大学毕业生的现状调查、分类,并且从博弈论的角度分析原因,找出住房最困难的人群,并提出相应对策。     

论魏晋之际“三不朽”的价值困境

"三不朽"作为儒文化的主流价值,经历了由隐而显的发展历程。羊祜身处汉晋之际,既秉承儒家传统,追求"三不朽"的价值理想,同时又因玄风的感染而探寻生命的终极意义,形成矛盾复杂的心态,折射出儒家"三不朽"的时代困境。正是这种矛盾及困境,赋予了羊祜岘山感伤及堕泪碑更为丰富的历史文化意蕴。     

民主改革前西藏流动人口救助问题刍议——以拉萨、昌都两地流动人口互助互济活动为基点

本文对20世纪上半叶民主改革前西藏流动人口救助问题进行了整体性的考察,认为当时互助组织的规范和实践强调某种"平均主义",互助行为具有一定的排他性,成为互助组织成员需要经历一定时间的考验以求认同.此外,互助组织对变迁中的政治经济条件有一定的调适能力.