简论自然生态系统效应的特性

本文在综合前人研究的基础上,分别从母体效应、基础效应、自生自溢效应、共享效应、可复活效应和灾害效应等六个不同的层面,对自然生态系统效应的特性作了一些理论的探讨和分析。     

Head Start,Prekindergarten, and Academic School Readiness: A Comparison Among Regions in the United States

ABSTRACT

Child care programs (including Head Start, prekindergarten [pre-K], and other center-based care) can differ, with patterns of use based on their location. Yet little research has examined how Head Start and pre-K programs affect children's academic school readiness, including vocabulary and reading skills at school entry, in the South as compared to other regions. To examine this further, secondary data (n = 2,803) collected in the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study were examined. Overall findings suggest, regardless of region, that Head Start and pre-K participants had higher academic skills at school entry than did their counterparts. In addition, when Head Start was compared to other center-based care and pre-K was compared to other care arrangements, both had larger effects on improving academic skills in the South compared with in other regions. These findings imply that Head Start and pre-K programs should target children who otherwise would receive nonparental non-center-based care. Future research should focus on why the effects of Head Start and pre-K vary between the South and other regions.     

Individual learning as a driver of changes in community vulnerability under repeated hurricanes and changing climate

The risks from singular natural hazards such as a hurricane have been extensively investigated in the literature. However, little is understood about how individual and collective responses to repeated hazards change communities and impact their preparation for future events. Individual mitigation actions may drive how a community's resilience evolves under repeated hazards. In this paper, we investigate the effect that learning by homeowners can have on household mitigation decisions and on how this influences a region's vulnerability to natural hazards over time, using hurricanes along the east coast of the United States as our case study. To do this, we build an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate homeowners’ adaptation to repeated hurricanes and how this affects the vulnerability of the regional housing stock. Through a case study, we explore how different initial beliefs about the hurricane hazard and how the memory of recent hurricanes could change a community's vulnerability both under current and potential future hurricane scenarios under climate change. In some future hurricane environments, different initial beliefs can result in large differences in the region's long-term vulnerability to hurricanes. We find that when some homeowners mitigate soon after a hurricane—when their memory of the event is the strongest—it can help to substantially decrease the vulnerability of a community.     

从碎片化到网络化:促进社会组织参与社区治理的路径

作为三社联动主体之一的社会组织近年来虽然快速发展并逐步参与社区治理,但其发挥作用的领域及程度尚显不足,原因在于政府的相关政策措施、社会组织的规模结构与专业领域、社会组织能力建设等方面均存在碎片化的问题.为了使社会组织在社区治理中充分发挥作用,需要从政府、社会组织网络和社会组织三个层面持续改进,建立社会组织发展的政策支持网络、分层分类的社会组织构成网络以及社会组织自身的能力网络,实现社会组织良性健康发展,从而提升其参与社区治理的能力并扩大其在社区治理中的作用空间.     

Estimating the effects of Head Start on parenting and child maltreatment

We examine the effects of Head Start participation on parenting and child maltreatment in a large and diverse sample of low-income families in large U.S. cities (N = 2807), using rich data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS). To address the issue of selection bias, we employ several analytic approaches, including logistic regressions with a rich set of pretreatment controls as well as propensity score matching models, comparing the effects of Head Start to any other arrangements as well as specific types of other arrangements. We find that compared to children who did not attend Head Start, children who did attend Head Start are less likely to have low access to learning materials and less likely to experience spanking by their parents at age five. Moreover, we find that the effects of Head Start vary depending on the specific types of other child care arrangements to which they are compared, with the most consistently beneficial protective effects seen when Head Start is compared to being home in exclusively parental care.     

1990年代中国生育水平研究

1990年代我国的生育水平究竟是多少,这一直是个谜。本文利用中国一直独立存在的严密而周全的教育统计数据,来估计2000年人口普查中的漏报,最终估计我国1990年代的生育水平。通过教育统计数据对人口普查数据进行调整,重构2000年普查0~9岁人口的年龄性别结构;并将2000年0~9岁人口转换为1991~2000年历年的出生人数,进而估算1990年代我国的生育水平。从推算和估计的结果看,我国1991年生育率达到更替水平,之后进一步下降,低于更替水平。1990年代后期我国的总和生育率在1.7~1.8。     

我国行政诉讼和解制度建构之探讨

从分析我国建构行政诉讼和解制度所带来的传统文化价值、诉讼经济价值等,结合我国的现实状况,提出构建行之有效的行政诉讼和解制度的几点设想.     

System Transformation and Development Path on Medical Care

China's basic medical care system has achieved universal coverage, faced the system transformation with substance fair. Under the transformation background from universal coverage to integration on urban and rural areas, and the transformation direction from the "medical care" to "health for all", through the institutional transition path on system design, service delivery, fi nancial support, this paper points out that how to improve quality of medical care and optimizing the level of health care services, match sustainable funding system and improving payment system, which in public health, medical services, medical care and medicine supply, realize the transformation and the development from universal medical care to health care.     

中国农民消费者决策型态的实证研究

消费心理的作用不仅表现在消费者对购买行为和产品认知等特性方面,还表现为消费者消费心理上的一种规律和定位,这种定位在消费者做出购买决策时具有消费者不能意识到的心理强制作用,这种心理强制作用会在根本上支配消费者的决策行为。本文从农民的消费心理角度运用因子分析研究反映具有消费性生活用品购买和具有投资性生产用品购买行为的二重性购买心理定位与决策型态。研究结果表明,这类农民存在三种决策型态。困惑型决策型态、新潮型决策型态和完美型决策型态的消费者在农村市场交叉存在。同时,当收入水平达到一定程度时,收入对农民耐用品购买决策型态的影响作用不显著,消费者群体型态的分类取决于农民的消费心理个性元素,其消费行为特征取决于所处的消费者心理定位层级和决策型态。     

论风骨的内涵及建安风骨的渐次形成

现在对于“风骨”的理解,不论是从内容上解释为“反映社会”,还是从艺术解释为“刚健”,都是对“风骨”的误读。刘勰“风骨”的本意,有两大基本要素,一是“述情”,二是精炼。建安风骨经历了曹操的“汉末实录”式的风骨、建安时代曹丕“便娟移人”的文人化风骨,以及曹植后期诗作代表的“沉著清老”式风骨的三个历程。