上海文化与科技融合发展调研报告

上海在文化与科技领域的重点企业和品牌影响力不断增强,在细分领域逐步构建了一批有标识度的新兴文化创意产品品牌矩阵.但关键技术领域有待突破,文化大数据体系有待建立,知识产权保护力度有待加强,行业审批周期有待缩短.应增强文化与科技领域的关键技术研发与品牌建设,强化对文化创意产品的知识产权保护,加快培育跨界多功能型高端人才,研究精准化的文化创意产品发展政策.     

礼萨·汗时期(1921-1941年)伊朗民族国家构建的路径选择与困境

礼萨·汗时期(1921—1941年)是伊朗现代民族国家构建的重要阶段。礼萨·汗通过对各种社会资源的有效整合,建立了一种超越传统部落和宗教权力架构之上的军事、行政和财政主导权,政府成为社会公共权力的中心,扭转了长期以来传统王朝国家的地方主义割据局面,彻底改变了中央与地方的关系。但礼萨·汗"政府主导型"模式的现代化改革在一定程度上激化了国家与社会(部落、什叶派伊斯兰)之间的矛盾,特别是复杂的政教关系和强制性的民族整合政策使伊朗国家构建和民族构建进程陷入困境,极大削弱了巴列维王朝的政治合法性基础。     

移情入“新”梦——中国电影与新生代观众的关系探研

时值"中国电影新力量"初成之际,作为"新力量"重要组成部分的新生代观众群体对这股发展大潮是不可或缺的。新生代观众以80、90后为主,这一代是娱乐化、网络化与个性化的一代。当下中国电影为让新生代观众能够透过影像移情入梦,便依据新生代观众独有的新特性,在复制真实、隐藏真实和制造仿像三个阶段中,充分运用各种艺术与技术的手段来满足他们的观影心理诉求,以保证电影票房的持续增长。     

实施"兴边富民行动"政策的理论思考

本文从边疆政策的历史沿革、"兴边富民行动"的历史背景、政策取向等方面,深入探讨了"兴边富民行动"政策的作用和意义。     

Semiparametric regression methods for temporal processes subject to multiple sources of censoring

Process regression methodology is underdeveloped relative to the frequency with which pertinent data arise. In this article, the response-190 is a binary indicator process representing the joint event of being alive and remaining in a specific state. The process is indexed by time (e.g., time since diagnosis) and observed continuously. Data of this sort occur frequently in the study of chronic disease. A general area of application involves a recurrent event with non-negligible duration (e.g., hospitalization and associated length of hospital stay) and subject to a terminating event (e.g., death). We propose a semiparametric multiplicative model for the process version of the probability of being alive and in the (transient) state of interest. Under the proposed methods, the regression parameter is estimated through a procedure that does not require estimating the baseline probability. Unlike the majority of process regression methods, the proposed methods accommodate multiple sources of censoring. In particular, we derive a computationally convenient variant of inverse probability of censoring weighting based on the additive hazards model. We show that the regression parameter estimator is asymptotically normal, and that the baseline probability function estimator converges to a Gaussian process. Simulations demonstrate that our estimators have good finite sample performance. We apply our method to national end-stage liver disease data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 222–237; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

大数据背景下网络调查样本的建模推断问题研究——以广义Boosted模型的倾向得分推断为例

随着大数据和网络的不断发展,网络调查越来越广泛,大部分网络调查样本属于非概率样本,难以采用传统的抽样推断理论进行推断,如何解决网络调查样本的推断问题是大数据背景下网络调查发展的迫切需求。本文首次从建模的角度提出了解决该问题的基本思路：一是入样概率的建模推断,可以考虑构建基于机器学习与变量选择的倾向得分模型来估计入样概率推断总体;二是目标变量的建模推断,可以考虑直接对目标变量建立参数、非参数或半参数超总体模型进行估计;三是入样概率与目标变量的双重建模推断,可以考虑进行倾向得分模型与超总体模型的加权估计与混合推断。最后,以基于广义Boosted模型的入样概率建模推断为例演示了具体解决方法。     

China’s flexible overseas food strategy: food trade and agricultural investment between Southeast Asia and China in 1990–2015

Using the UN Comtrade database and multiple sources of agricultural investment data, this paper outlines the emerging patterns of food trade and agricultural investment between Southeast Asian countries and China. The paper shows that China has adopted a flexible overseas food strategy. First, China has increased food export and shifted its food trade with Southeast Asia from a dependent relationship towards a complementary relationship at the regional level in recent years. Second, China tends to adapt to the existing conditions of food production and trade in Southeast Asian countries instead of fundamentally altering them. Finally, Chinese overseas agricultural investment is less driven by domestic food demand but more oriented for profit making, and this gives it flexibility in diversifying investment. An adequate understanding of China’s flexible food strategy in bilateral and multilateral relationships holds implications for global food security.     

我国农村群众性文化活动的衰落与农民社交困境

在我国传统的农耕社会,群众性的民俗活动以及亲友乡邻间节日及婚丧嫁娶时的走动往来承载着农民的社会交往,具有 强大的教育和文化整合功能。农耕社会农民之间社交纽带的本质是精神文化纽带而非经济利益纽带。近几十年,我国农村社 会格局发生显著变化,农民社交遭遇困境,群众性文化活动的衰落是重要原因,农村文化建设应该将繁荣群众性文化活动作为 着力点。     

论黑格尔艺术美定性的伦理内涵

黑格尔的“美就是理念的感性显现”这一美学论断本身包含了艺术美的定性过程。理念是真是美也是善,要符合道德的要求。因此,艺术美的定性也必然地显示出深刻的伦理内涵。黑格尔在理想的定性中对这一问题进行了辩证的阐述。理想的定性,单就它本身来看,表现为“神性—伦理”的演化,也就是伦理内涵的演化;就动作或情节来看,表现为伦理实体在“情况—情境—情节”,伦理内涵表现为这一过程中发生的分化、冲突及其艺术价值。黑格尔艺术美定性的伦理内涵昭示了艺术的伦理道德价值,这在当前伦理观念发现剧烈变化、艺术创作中的伦理道德底线一再下降的时期,无疑具有很好的现实意义。     

Co-Occurring Psychosocial Problems and Multiple Sexual Partners among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Shanghai,China: A Syndemic Approach

We aimed to apply syndemic theory to verify the association and reinforcing effects between psychosocial problems and multiple sexual partners (MSP) of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Shanghai, China. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 547 MSM in Shanghai, China using a face-to-face survey. Sociodemographic and psychosocial data were collected, as well as information on MSP and condomless anal sex. In the 6 months prior to the survey, 54.3% of the MSM sample had had MSP. Univariate analysis showed that self-esteem, depression, loneliness, sexual compulsivity, and involuntary subordination (IS) were associated with MSP. Sexual compulsivity (multivariate odds ratio [ORm] = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.76–4.91) and IS (ORm = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.14–2.81) remained significant in multivariate analysis. MSM with five or more psychosocial problems had greater odds of (adjusted odds ratios = 3.06, 95% CI = 1.49–6.25) having MSP in the previous 6 months than the non-syndemic group. Our findings provide preliminary confirmation of the additive relationship of syndemic psychosocial health conditions and MSP among MSM in Shanghai, China. An integrated intervention with special focus on sexual compulsivity and IS is needed.