模糊变权组合预测方法研究

在不确定环境组合预测中,用模糊权重系数更能体现各单项预测方法的客观表现.文章提出一种新的权重系数为三角模糊数的组合预测方法.首先建立以组合预测精确度指数最小为准则的模糊加权组合预测模型,为了避免样本数据中极端值对模型的影响,对模型进行改进,提出带有0-1变量的模糊加权组合预测模型.进一步考虑到单项预测方法在不同时刻的表现有所差异,建立基于诱导有序模糊加权平均(IOFWA)算子的模糊变权组合预测模型,该模型不仅能克服极端值的影响,而且具有更高的预测精确度.并实证验证了该方法的适用性和灵活性.     

The Legal Regulation of Irrational Elements in the Operations of Boards of Directors

The operating processes of boards of directors are delicate and complex, so corporate legislation cannot simply equate board structure law with board governance law. It is therefore necessary to start from China’s actual conditions and grasp the operating processes of Chinese boards with a sober appreciation of the irrational elements in their operating mechanisms. Board governance has entered a new stage of institutionalization, and the law should shift from its emphasis on structure to give equal attention to structure and process in optimizing institutional structure. In the construction of board operating mechanisms, we should treat differently such “living laws” as customs, experiences and traditions, give full play to the functionality of boards’ strategic choices, and provide legal regulation of irrational elements, so as to distinguish between different roles, develop consensus, select strong points and improve efficiency. We should build control over board operational procedures, improve the system of functional allocation, correct assessment mechanisms, develop a mechanism for judicial scrutiny of the affective relationships in society and curb such behavioral tendencies as relational identity, structural bias and group polarization, with a view to controlling such “living laws” within the framework of the basic values and principles of board governance.     

投资东盟的“国家风险”识别因素分析——基于桂籍华商的调查

桂籍华商与东盟各国政治、经济、文化往来交流频繁,对于研究投资东盟的国家风险因素更具识别价值.文章通过对桂籍海外华商东盟投资国家风险识别的因素进行问卷调查及分析,结果显示:海外投资的国家风险识别因素主要涉及政治、经济、文化与事件特征等四大类因素影响.同时,桂籍华商与专家学者在东盟投资国家风险识别因素的认定上存在较大差异.积极利用“21世纪海上丝绸之路”建设拓展桂籍华商对东盟投资的国家风险识别能力,建立桂籍华商东盟投资国家风险的防控机制,完善桂籍华商相关组织机构,有利于更好地防范和应对国家风险.     

Racial/Ethnic Minority Vocational Research Trends: An 11‐Year Update

This study extends Flores et al.'s ( 2006 ) 36‐year analysis of racial/ethnic minority (REM) career research to identify recent trends in choice of topics and leading individual and institutional contributors. The authors identified 166 articles on REM career research published from 2005 to 2015 in the Journal of Vocational Behavior, The Career Development Quarterly, the Journal of Career Assessment, and the Journal of Career Development. Of these studies, 92% were empirical, with more than three quarters of these using quantitative rather than qualitative methodology. Most frequently, the empirical studies (n = 153) were based on samples of high school (30.7%) or undergraduate (34.6%) students. The authors discuss the implications of their findings and suggest ways to expand REM career research in the future.     

t-Type corrected-loss estimation for error-in-variable model

In this article, we consider a linear model in which the covariates are measured with errors. We propose a t-type corrected-loss estimation of the covariate effect, when the measurement error follows the Laplace distribution. The proposed estimator is asymptotically normal. In practical studies, some outliers that diminish the robustness of the estimation occur. Simulation studies show that the estimators are resistant to vertical outliers and an application of 6-minute walk test is presented to show that the proposed method performs well.     

Third-Person Effect,Religiosity and Support for Censorship of Satirical Religious Cartoons

The violent attack on the staff of Charlie Hebdo and an earlier plot to kill cartoonists from the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten raise the issue of censorship of satirical religious cartoons to avoid potential retaliatory violence from those offended by the cartoons. With third-person effect (TPE) as the theoretical underpinning, this study examined the relationship among TPE, religiosity, and support for censorship of religious satirical cartoons. Data were collected in May 2015. A national sample of participants (N=374) was acquired through Amazon’s Mechanical Turk. The results show that individuals with a higher degree of religiosity are more likely to support censorship of satirical religious cartoons, and though TPE is not positively correlated to support for censorship, respondents’ perception of the effect of the cartoons on themselves may indicate an increased propensity for supporting censorship.     

中国城市化波动的解释:工业化波动和服务化波动的冲击

文章利用消除趋势法得到的城市化、工业化和服务化的周期成分度量城市化、工业化和服务化的波动,并简要分析了中国城市化、工业化和服务化的波动特点。研究结果表明,中国城市化波动可以划分为6个不同的发展阶段;工业化波动最为剧烈,服务化波动最为平缓,城市化波动介于二者之间;城市化波动滞后于服务化波动,服务化波动滞后于工业化波动;城市化波动主要源于自身波动的冲击,工业化波动和服务化波动冲击的影响较小;城市化波动分别对工业化波动和服务化波动的脉冲响应曲线均为明显的正弦波,但脉冲响应时滞及冲击力度明显不同;工业化波动对城市化波动具有显著的负向影响,服务化波动对城市化波动具有显著的正向影响。     

海上丝绸之路沿线地区概况及深圳参与建设的潜力分析

通过分析21世纪海上丝绸之路国家战略提出的背景和意义,以及21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线地区人口资源、文化、城市化进程、工业化进程、资源等发展的基本情况,梳理深圳参与海上丝绸之路的需求和潜力,为深圳参与海上丝绸之路建设提供建议。     

德国非营利科研机构模式及其对中国的启示——以弗琅霍夫协会为例的考察

战后德国科研机构的主导模式是以著名的马普协会、霍尔姆茨协会、弗琅霍夫协会和莱布尼兹科学研究联合会等为代表的非营利科研机构模式。由于这一模式具有治理结构完善、组织运营高效、科研业绩卓越的优点,因而多年来一直受到国际社会的高度评价,成为越来越多国家重塑科技体制的参考样本。系统考察弗琅霍夫协会的内部组织结构、资源分配方式与成果评估体系,对深化我国科技体制改革应有重要的借鉴和启示意义。