A time series model for cohort data

A univariate time-series model is presented for projecting age- or duration-specific data for recent cohorts. The model is also capable of taking period effects into account, is illustrated using Dutch data on marital fertility rates.     

The text of the Articles of the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Their Families which the Working Group Provisionally Agreed during the First Reading

This preamble documents the 91 Articles of the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrants and Their Families. This defines and covers the rights of all migrant workers and their families which can be ratified by as many countries as possible. The status and fundamental rights of migrant workers and their families have not been sufficiently recognized everywhere and therefore require appropriate international protection. The 8 parts are: 1) scope and definitions, 2) fundamental human rights of all migrant workers and members of their families, 3) additional rights of migrant workers and members of their families in a regular situation, 4) provisions applicable to particular categories of migrant workers and members of their families, 5) promotion of sound, equitable and humane conditions in connection with lawful international migration of workers and their families, 6) application of the Convention, 7) general provisions, and 8) final provisions.     

Changing gender roles of Egyptian females

A high population growth rate in the Middle East is prompting investigators to look for cultural conditions and attitudes that can be encouraged to facilitate lower fertility rates. Population researchers find an inverse relationship between the educational level of females and their fertility, especially in Third World countries. This suggests that education can become an internal cultural mechanism for population control. The author explores this notion using data collected from interviews with 750 teenage girls and their mothers in Cairo, Egypt.     

Public policy in a multicultural Australia

The debate on the consequences of large-scale immigration in the making of public policy began in 1968. Muliculturalism is for all Australians and any social policy designed for the benefit of one group in the population must have profound consequences on all people. 40% of the Australian population was born overseas or have at least 1 parent born overseas. Almost 1/4 of the population has ethnic roots in other than the Anglo-Celtic majority. The ideal of moral progress, greater equality, and improvement is the motive force in society. The presence of social heterogeneity--religious or ethnic--is linked with the issue of stability in a democratic system. There are 2 models of multiculturalism and corresponding public policy approaches. 1 model emphasizes the role of the political processes in Australian ethnic relations and sees ethnic structures (political, social, economic) as legitimate but separate interest groups, each having the exclusive responsibility for the realization of ethnic goals. The leading feature of this model is the structural fragmentation of Australian society into parallel segments of varying degrees of exclusiveness each with its own "ethnic" label. The 2nd model stresses the priority of the wholeness and welfare of the entire society. It assumes that a society based on satisfaction of individual needs through voluntary exchange is fertile ground for cultural enrichment. The goal is cohesion and unity in living together in Australia, seen as of central concern and consistent with the ideals of intercultural understanding and improved communication. The model assumes that the culture must be seen as a living, dynamic, changing, and interacting set of life patterns. The author prefers the 2nd model which stresses that the future vision of a multicultural Australia must be a shared one because only then can cultural diversity and national cohesion coexist within the 1 economic and political unit.     

宗教象征艺术

一、森林之歌在扎伊尔的艾图瑞(Ituri)森林中,特恩布尔·科林(Coin Turnbull)和巴姆布蒂(Bambuti)人一起生活了一个阶段,他们属于矮种人.特恩布尔·科林把自己的感受写成《森林人》一书.这本书中,我最喜欢的一些事情,可能有助于阐述自己对无文字民族宗教象征艺术的性质的看法.这些事情,发生在要举行仪式之前的几个月中.每晚上,矮人燃起一堆专门的营火,他们集拢在火堆周围,且歌且宴.他们唱的歌直接与森林有关,把森林看作是他们的供养者,一种实体或特别是在这种场合存在于他们知觉中的神.森林以动听的歌回报他们,歌声从营地四周森林的各个位置发出,响彻夜空,终夜不绝入耳.森林之歌产生于熟练的喇叭筒游戏.这种仪式和吼声器,统称为"莫里莫"(Molimo).     

论自由主义的小说理论

自由主义理论将小说的发展归因于资产阶级和现代资本主义的兴起,以及随之而来的自由个人主义意识形态的增长.这一理论认为,"小说在其道德和心理的焦点上,在其生产与分配的工业技术上,在其所要求于读者的个人小天地、闲暇和阅读习惯上,正好同工商业资产阶级的伟大时代相适应."L.特里林与W.J.哈维的著作提出了自由主义哲学与小说形式之间存在着一种更为复杂的联系.按哈维的说法,小说有一种本能作为其支配中心,即"承认人们在社会中的丰富性、多样性和个别性,同时相信这些特征作为目的本身都是好的",而且它以生存的复杂性为乐,并容许有多种的信念和道德准则.在I.瓦特具有广泛影响的著作《小说的兴起》中,有着对自由主义理论的系统探索,它随意地将中产阶级的发展和18世纪的英国小说联系起来,使这两种看法相结合,表示这种阶级间的相互联系也体现在笛福·理查逊和菲尔丁的"形式现实主义"的作品中.瓦特从叙述技巧的角度对"形式现实主     

现代经济学泛论

一当前发生的一些事件对世界经济说来是严峻的,也给美国经济学家带来了烦恼.20年前老生常谈的繁荣与衰退问题,似乎已经得到解决;长期折磨经济学的思想分歧已经融合为一种"新古典综合论",从而把亚当·斯密的"无形的手"的古典经济学与凯恩斯的     

人的社会本质及其自然生物存在、个体与历史发展

不言而喻,研究人的前景,不可能不分析人的本质.所以,必须由之开始的第一件事,就是试着回答"什么是人"的问题.这真是个"永恒的"问题,它贯穿整个哲学史,在现代关于人及其未来的争论中也是一个中心问题.在对人的本质进行认识的历史上,已经取得了一些决定性的成果.在对科学、人类精神文化、人类社会经验加以发展的新阶段     

关于社会的研究是一门科学吗?

一、引言关于社会科学,一个主要的方法论问题是,究竟它们是不是科学.不能说这个问题已经完全清楚,也不能说对此可以作出直接、简单的回答.我认为,社会科学的成功与失败、社会科学知识的性质及其作用,这些问题的解决最终取决于对认识自然的模式和认识社会的模式之比较.而那些想把心理学、政治学、经济学、地理学和历史学置于"科学"基础之上的人,却总以为自己在研究社会事件的过程中应用了与研究自然事件相