Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

The relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty, investment and economic growth is an empirical issue in developing countries. This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on investment and economic growth in Pakistan for the period 1975–2008 by using the accelerator model of investment and endogenous growth model. The conditional variances, directly estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is utilized for erecting the uncertainty variables related to fiscal policy, openness and foreign capital inflows. The results clearly indicate that the macroeconomic uncertainty have significant negative effects on investment and per capita income of Pakistan. We conclude that a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty through appropriate fiscal and monetary policy, stability in capital inflows and improved trade performance could result in high investment and sustainable economic growth in the country.     

中国对阿拉伯世界人文外交的历史回顾及现实挑战

人文外交作为一种崭新的外交形式,是对当今国际关系领域中国家、市场与社会三者互动的有效应对,也是对文化外交和公共外交的有机整合。人文外交以软实力理论、国家形象理论、建构主义理论和文明对话理论为依托,在当今中国的外交政策中占有重要地位。新中国对阿拉伯世界的外交实践则为人文外交的理论创新积累了宝贵经验。在对阿关系中,人文外交在各时期都促进了中国国家利益的拓展。当下,国际体系处于转型期,尤其是2010年年底以来阿拉伯世界所发生的社会和政治动荡,使中国对阿拉伯世界的外交政策面临挑战。只有将人文外交继续作为我国对阿外交政策的重点,才能在政治动荡的阿拉伯世界始终维护中国的国家利益。     

Seasonality and vertical structure of light-attracted insect communities in a dipterocarp forest in Sarawak

Nocturnal flying insects were collected monthly for 13 months using ultra violet light-traps set at various vertical levels in a weakly-seasonal, tropical lowland dipterocarp forest in Sarawak, Malaysia. Abundance, faunal composition, size distribution and guild structure of these samples were analyzed with respect to temperal and vertical distributions. The nocturnal flying insect community in the canopy level was highly dominated by fig wasps (84%) in individual number, and by scarabaeid beetles (28%) in weight. A principal component analysis on monthly catches detected non-random, seasonal trends of insect abundance. The first two principal trends were an alternation of wetter (September to January) and less wet seasons (February to August) and an alternation between the least wet (January to March) and the other seasons. Many insect groups were less abundant in the least wet season than the other seasons, whilst inverse patterns were found in Scarabaeidae and Tenebrionidae. Significantly positive and negative correlations between monthly catch and rainfall were detected only in ovule-feeders and in phloem-feeders, respectively. Delayed, significant negative correlations between monthly catch and 1–3 month preceding rainfall were more frequently detected in phytophages, phloem-feeders, seed-feeders, wood-borers and scavengers. The peak in abundance along vertical levels were found at the canopy level (35 m) for phloem-, ovule-, seed-, root-, fungal-feeders and nectar collectors, at an upper subcanopy level (25 m) for scavengers and aquatic predators, and at a middle subcanopy level (17 m) for ants. Catches at the emergent level (45 m) did not exceed those at the canopy level.     

A new nonparametric synthetic EWMA control chart for monitoring process mean

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts are widely used in chemical and process industries because of their excellent speed in catching small to moderate shifts in the process target. In usual practice, many data come from a process where the monitoring statistic is non-normally distributed or it follows an unknown probability distribution. This necessitates the use of distribution-free/nonparametric control charts for monitoring the deviations from the process target. In this paper, we integrate the existing EWMA sign chart with the conforming run length chart to propose a new synthetic EWMA (SynEWMA) sign chart for monitoring the process mean. The SynEWMA sign chart encompasses the synthetic sign and EWMA sign charts. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compute the run length profiles of the SynEWMA sign chart. Based on a comprehensive comparison, it turns out that the SynEWMA sign chart is able to perform substantially better than the existing EWMA sign chart. Both real and simulated data sets are used to explain the working and implementation of existing and proposed control charts.     

A new non-parametric multivariate EWMA sign control chart for monitoring process dispersion

In this paper, a new non-parametric multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (NMEWMA) sign chart is proposed for monitoring the process dispersion. The run length characteristics of the NMEWMA sign chart are computed with the help of Markov chain and Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, the NMEWMA sign chart is also used to detect changes in the process mean and dispersion simultaneously. An illustrative example is also used to explain the implementation of proposed control chart.     

Traditional kinship foster care in northern Ghana: the experiences and views of children, carers and adults in Tamale

Surveys were employed to explore the experiences of children in care and their carers about traditional fostering. They also examined the perspectives of randomly selected adults in the community about the practice of traditional foster care in the Tamale area of northern Ghana. The 74 participants responded to closed- and open-ended interview questions about traditional foster care. Frequencies and thematic grouping of qualitative responses showed that the need to keep family ties alive was the key reason for placement of children with family and kin. Majority of the children expressed satisfaction with living in foster care, even though they had experienced physical and emotional abuse and intimidation. Although most carers were not formally employed and had little personal income, they were positive about having the care role, but faced challenges in providing for many children in a difficult economic situation. The report highlights the role of reciprocity, altruistic and socio-cultural factors in quality of care, and the potential for the traditional kinship foster care to provide suitable avenues of placement for children as recommended by the Ghana child rights law. It also identifies the need for education for carers around children's needs and Ghana's child rights law.     

Under the skin: Exploring 2-month-olds' thermal reactions in different social interactions with mother and stranger

Physiological adaptations to external stressors can reveal socio-cognitive health in infancy. With the use of thermal imaging and behavioural analyses, the current study examined the arousal markers accompanying infants’ interactions with a familiar and an unfamiliar person. To address the current research question, the mother and a complete stranger interacted with 2 to 3 month-old infants (N= 10, 2 boys)in three different conditions: Neutral, Play, and Compliment. Behavioral analyses showed that overall gaze was longer to the Stranger compared to the Mother independent of condition. Physiological findings showed that skin temperature was significantly higher with the stranger independent of condition. The regions of the face that passed the significance threshold included the maxillary area, the nose, and the forehead. Both behavioral and physiological findings emphasize the ability of the infant to distinguish between a familiar and an unfamiliar person. Most importantly, however thermal imaging has proven to be a promising tool in physiologically differentiating between variable social conditions in very young infants opening up a new experimental portal for identifying healthy physiological development.     

Exploring the Predictors of Organizational Preparedness for Natural Disasters

There is an extensive body of research on the determinants of disaster preparedness at the individual and household levels. The same cannot be said for the organizational level. Hence, the purpose of this study is to shed light on the predictors of organizational preparedness for natural disasters. Since leaders of organizations have an incentive to overstate their level of preparedness and because surveys of organizational leaders suffer from selection bias and low response rates, we take the novel approach of interviewing employees about the organizations that employ them. Using an online survey, we collected information from a national sample of 2,008 U.S. employees and estimated the predictors of preparedness at the organizational level. We find, among other results, that organization size (facility level) is a consistent predictor of preparedness at the organizational level. We conclude with policy recommendations and outline an agenda for future research on organizational preparedness for natural disasters.