Dynamic Reflections of Crimes,Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan

Massive increase in crimes has coexisted with rising inflation and high unemployment for the last couple of decades especially during democratic governments in Pakistan. In this paper, we explore the relationship between crime rate, misery index and democracy in Pakistan from 1975 to 2013. Granger causality test proposed the unidirectional causality running from misery index to crime rate in Pakistan. Estimating the crime function via Pasaran’s conditional error correction model, we found the significant long run equilibrium relationship between Okun’s misery index and crime rate which implies that rising inflation and unemployment rate are the major driving forces towards increasing crime rates in Pakistan. Finally, empirical evidence from Okun’s misery index suggested that people are three times more miserable in quasi democratic periods than that of dictatorship. The Barrow’s misery index model verifies that people are twice worsening in quasi democratic periods. Likewise, reported crimes are nearly twice during quasi democracy than quasi dictatorship. The crime model provided the evidence that people during quasi democratic governments are more likely tending towards crime as compared to quasi dictatorship during the study period in Pakistan. This implicitly advocates the fact that half hearted efforts and ill structured apparatus of democracy can augment the tendency of crime and misery rather than solution of such concerns of the economy.     

A new S2 control chart using repetitive sampling

A new S² control chart is presented for monitoring the process variance by utilizing a repetitive sampling scheme. The double control limits called inner and outer control limits are proposed, whose coefficients are determined by considering the average run length (ARL) and the average sample number when the process is in control. The proposed control chart is compared with the existing Shewhart S² control chart in terms of the ARLs. The result shows that the proposed control chart is more efficient than the existing control chart in detecting the process shift.     

Snake parasitism in an urban old-growth forest

Urban-associated changes can have immediate or long-term consequences on animal populations. Such changes may be assessed through parasite prevalence and abundance in wildlife hosts, as urbanization can influence parasitism and disease transmission in wildlife. Snakes are widespread and diverse vertebrates that often persist in urban environments; however, parasitism of snakes in urban environments has yet to be studied, leaving the roles of snakes in parasite transmission uncharacterized. Field ecology, microscopy, molecular techniques, and geographic information science (GIS) were integrated to characterize parasitism of snakes in an urban old-growth forest park. The species, sex, mass, length, location, and prevalence of ecto-, hemo-, and fecal parasites were determined for 34 snakes of 6 species. Ectoparasites (mite), hemoparasites (Hepatozoon spp.), and fecal parasites (Entamoeba spp., Trichomonas spp., Strongloides spp., and an unidentified helminth) were detected in snakes and 64.7?% of snakes were infected by at least one of these parasites. Parasite infections were generally not related to the sex, age, or body condition of snakes. The locations of infected snakes were used to produce risk maps indicating where parasite prevalence is predicted to be greatest. The analysis of these maps indicated that snakes with fecal parasites were closer than non-infected snakes to the edge of the forest. This study confirms that snakes may be important parasite hosts or reservoirs in parasite transmission pathways in urban environments and it provides an integrative multidisciplinary approach that may be used to monitor parasitism dynamics in other urban wildlife areas.     

Health Disorder of Climate Migrants in Khulna City: An Urban Slum Perspective

As the most vulnerable climatic region in the country, Khulna City is increasingly experiencing climate‐change‐induced urban problems. For instance, occupancy by climate migrants (delete the term “illegal migrant”), drainage congestion, water logging and reduced fresh water availability are all increasing problems. In the last decade, the population in the city increased by more than 20 per cent due to migration from nearby climate vulnerable districts. This study explores the health disorders of climate migrants occupying the urban slums and squats of the Khulna City area. This study found that these climate migrants settled in the urban slums and squats and, as such, they do not have access to urban amenities such as clean drinking water, hygiene services, and health facilities. This study noted that these displaced people are at increased risk of health issues from unhygienic and overcrowded living conditions and from water and sanitation problems. They often suffer from different waterborne diseases, under‐nutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. This study suggests that there is a need for better planning, preparation and training in Bangladesh to which migrants move, including better training in health and related services on how to recognize and respond to health problems that may be slow to manifest. Education and training also need to be provided for the migrants themselves, to help them adapt culturally and to enhance their skills and potential for employment.     

Evaluating the Quality of Social Work Supervision in UK Children’s Services: Comparing Self-Report and Independent Observations

Understanding how different forms of supervision support good social work practice and improve outcomes for people who use services is nearly impossible without reliable and valid evaluative measures. Yet the question of how best to evaluate the quality of supervision in different contexts is a complicated and as-yet-unsolved challenge. In this study, we observed 12 social work supervisors in a simulated supervision session offering support and guidance to an actor playing the part of an inexperienced social worker facing a casework-related crisis. A team of researchers analyzed these sessions using a customized skills-based coding framework. In addition, 19 social workers completed a questionnaire about their supervision experiences as provided by the same 12 supervisors. According to the coding framework, the supervisors demonstrated relatively modest skill levels, and we found low correlations among different skills. In contrast, according to the questionnaire data, supervisors had relatively high skill levels, and we found high correlations among different skills. The findings imply that although self-report remains the simplest way to evaluate supervision quality, other approaches are possible and may provide a different perspective. However, developing a reliable independent measure of supervision quality remains a noteworthy challenge.     

Early stopping in seamless phase I/II clinical trials

In recent years, seamless phase I/II clinical trials have drawn much attention, as they consider both toxicity and efficacy endpoints in finding an optimal dose (OD). Engaging an appropriate number of patients in a trial is a challenging task. This paper attempts a dynamic stopping rule to save resources in phase I/II trials. That is, the stopping rule aims to save patients from unnecessary toxic or subtherapeutic doses. We allow a trial to stop early when widths of the confidence intervals for the dose-response parameters become narrower or when the sample size is equal to a predefined size, whichever comes first. The simulation study of dose-response scenarios in various settings demonstrates that the proposed stopping rule can engage an appropriate number of patients. Therefore, we suggest its use in clinical trials.     

Adolescents’ perceptions of the ‘substance use-violence nexus’: a South African perspective

The aim of the study was to explore adolescents’ perceptions of substance use as a contributing factor to community violence by employing a conceptual framework proposed by Goldstein. Data were collected from a sample of adolescents between the ages of 15 and 16 years by means of focus group interviews. Theoretical thematic analysis was used to analyse and interpret the findings. The participants’ perceptions indicated that substance use and withdrawal symptoms induce physiological and behavioural modifications resulting in aggression and violence. The findings also suggest that participants believed that substance users frequently commit property and violent interpersonal crimes such as theft, robbery, assault and murder to procure their substances. Further, the adolescents’ perceived violence to be rooted within gang culture as well as the involvement in shared markets for illicit substance trading.     

Does Remittance Outflow Stimulate or Retard Economic Growth?

This article evaluates the association between remittance outflow (RMO) and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The results of this evaluation indicate that RMO Granger creates gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in three countries, namely, Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Similarly, the results for causality from GDP per capita to RMO are significant for four countries, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The findings differ from those of the household consumption model, stating that higher RMO will decrease economic activity. GDP per capita is the main determinant of RMO, suggesting that economic growth promises and encourages continuous RMO and vice versa. The adverse impact of RMO can be minimized by encouraging the local population to be productive in the private sector, as local productivity will reduce the huge influx of foreign workers and provide valuable local investment opportunities to lessen the amount being remitted.     

The Subpoena of Ethnographic Data

This essay outlines the author's experience of having his ethnographic data subpoenaed. It outlines the challenges of subpoena's to research, and suggests four solutions: (1) Apply for and utilize the National Institutes of Health certificate of confidentiality by asking health‐related questions over the course of one's research; (2) Establish a task force that articulates clear ethical guidelines for ethnographic research, with attention to the conditions wherein ethnographers can break confidentiality (and might also comply with subpoenas). These ethical guidelines should then be made clear to research subjects as a part of informed consent processes; (3) Demand that institutions (institutional review boards) that require confidentiality as a condition of research be required to defend that confidentiality through the office of the general counsel; (4) Socialize the cost of subpoenas, wherein scholars can be part of an insurance pool that will defend them in the event of a subpoena and thereby defend the general enterprise of ethnographic research.