A semi-parametric Bayesian extreme value model using a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities

In this paper, we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible for posterior density estimation and posterior inference for high quantiles. The model works well even for small sample sizes and in the absence of prior information. We evaluate the performance of the proposed model through a simulation study. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a real environmental data.     

Agency in Fertility Decisions in Western Europe During the Demographic Transition: A Comparative Perspective

We use a set of linked reproductive histories taken from Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain for the period 1871–1960 to address key issues regarding how reproductive change was linked specifically to mortality and survivorship and more generally to individual agency. Using event-history analysis, this study investigates how the propensity to have additional children was influenced by the number of surviving offspring when reproductive decisions were made. The results suggest that couples were continuously regulating their fertility to achieve reproductive goals. Families experiencing child fatalities show significant increases in the hazard of additional births. In addition, the sex composition of the surviving sibset also appears to have influenced reproductive decisions in a significant but changing way. The findings offer strong proof of active decision-making during the demographic transition and provide an important contribution to the literature on the role of mortality for reproductive change.     

Exploiting the balanced scorecard in the Operations Department: the Ducati Motor Holding case

The literature has widely discussed how to measure manufacturing performance. However, even though several indicators have been proposed, manufacturing reporting systems still suffer from a number of problems, which according to recent contributions, can be solved through the adoption of integrated performance measurement systems (PMSs). This article aims at understanding whether such integrated PMSs–namely the balanced scorecard–can actually solve the problems, which usually affect the reporting system of the Operations Department. The article presents a case-study developed in Ducati Motor Holding and then outlines the main conclusions and managerial implications. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the key benefits brought about by the balanced scorecard concern a higher responsiveness of the decision-making process and more intense cooperation among all units related to operations management (namely, manufacturing, logistics, quality management, procurement, maintenance).     

DO WOMEN PAY MORE FOR CREDIT? EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

By using a unique and large data set on loan contracts between banks and microfirms, we find robust evidence that women in Italy pay more for credit than men, although we do not find any evidence that women borrowers are riskier than men. The male/female differential remains even after controlling for a large number of characteristics of the type of business, the borrower, and the structure of the credit market. The result is not driven by lack of credit history, nor by women using a different type of bank than men, since the same bank charges different rates to male and female borrowers.     

Economic Swings and Demographic Changes in the History of Latin America

In this paper we study the effects of short-term fluctuations in indicators of economic well-being on selected demographic response such as births, marriages and deaths at age intervals in eleven Latin American countries between 1910 and 1990. We use conventional distributed lag models to assess the magnitude and direction of effects and test a variety of hypotheses some of which have been posed to hold in Western Europe and others that are more specific and tailored to the Latin American context. We also compare the magnitude and direction of effects obtained among these countries with those obtained for pre-industrial Europe and uncover the existence of broadly similar patterns.     

The Effect of a Multicomponent Dual-Modality Exercise Program Targeting Osteoporosis on Bone Health Status and Physical Function Capacity of Postmenopausal Women

Purpose: Exercise is important for the prevention of osteoporosis and the reduction of fracture risk because it improves muscle mass and strength, besides improving balance. We evaluated the effect of a specific exercise program on bone mass and quality and physical function capacity in postmenopausal women with low bone mineral density. Methods: Participants (N = 125) underwent a bone mass (Dual X-ray Absorptiometry), bone quality (osteosonography), and physical functional capacity assessment. Fifty-eight of them took part in an 11-month exercise program (E), that included a multicomponent (strength, aerobic capacity, balance, joint mobility) dual-modality (on ground and in the water; alternating group and home-based exercise periods) exercise regimen. The others represented a control group (C) that did not exercise. After the exercise program all participants were reevaluated. Results: After the training program: femoral neck T-score significantly improved in E; C significantly decreased all bone quality (osteosonography) parameters, whereas E showed no differences; E significantly improved all the physical function capacity parameters, while most of them decreased or did not change in C. Conclusions: A specific exercise program targeting osteoporosis improves physical function capacity, reduces physiological bone loss, and maintains bone quality in low bone mineral density postmenopausal women.     

El tema de la pregunta y la elaboración de las respuestas en la detección de mentiras

Resumen

En este trabajo se estudió la incidencia que, sobre la detección de mentiras, podría tener que los temas a que estaban referidas variasen en cuanto a implicación emocional para el emisor y que las respuestas fuesen preparadas o espontáneas. Los resultados obtenidos señalaron que la implicación personal en el tema facilita el reconocimiento de las respuestas falsas, a la vez que la preparación previa de las respuestas dificulta la detección de mentiras a jueces no entrenados.