Time Construction in Insurance Society

This article deals with the social meaning of insurance contracts in the late medieval and modern society. Starting from the empirical analysis of one of the early marine insurance contracts which were stipulated in the second half of the 14^th century, the hypothesis is suggested that the premium rate coincides with the estimated average frequency of sea accidents. By means of a proto‐probability calculus, rate was used by the early insurers for trading risks. Therefore the main thesis arises that insurance premium is a way of giving a certain price to the uncertainty of the future and that it indeed represents the cost of such observation. A comparison with the original function of money in primitive societies based on reciprocity is finally developed in order to explain how time construction is contingent on social structures.     

Demographic Responses to Economic Recessions in Latin America Since 1900*

This paper explores the linkages between economic cycles and demographic processes in Latin America since 1900. We identify the mechanisms through which economic conditions have an impact on demographic outcomes and assess the demographic and socioeconomic consequences of the 1980s. Selected historical evidence is reviewed to illustrate the effects of economic cycles in Western Europe and, aided by an heuristic framework, tentative hypotheses are derived to interpret empirical evidence about the effects of the 1929 and 1980 depressions in selected Latin American countries. Results show that the demograhic consequences of the Great Depression were nontrivial. The analyses of demographic and socioeconomic responses of the post-1980 recession, however, reveal only weak linkages for some outcomes. We argue that the weak relationships may mask important transformations currently underway and conclude with a discussion of the implications for future research.     

On Decomposing Net Final Values: Eva,Sva and Shadow Project

A decomposition model of Net Final Values (NFV), named Systemic Value Added (SVA), is proposed for decision-making purposes, based on a systemic approach introduced in Magni [Magni, C. A. (2003), Bulletin of Economic Research 55(2), 149–176; Magni, C. A. (2004) Economic Modelling 21, 595–617]. The model translates the notion of excess profit giving formal expression to a counterfactual alternative available to the decision maker. Relations with other decomposition models are studied, among which Stewart’s [Stewart, G.B. (1991), The Quest for Value: The EVA™ Management Guide, Harper Collins, Publishers Inc]. The index here introduced differs from Stewart’s Economic Value Added (EVA) in that it rests on a different interpretation of the notion of excess profit and is formally connected with the EVA model by means of a shadow project. The SVA is formally and conceptually threefold, in that it is economic, financial, accounting-flavoured. Some results are offered, providing sufficient and necessary conditions for decomposing NFV. Relations between a project’s SVA and its shadow project’s EVA are shown, all results of Pressacco and Stucchi [Pressacco, F. and Stucchi, P. (1997), Rivista di Matematica per le Scienze Economiche e Sociali 20, 165–185] are proved by making use of the systemic approach and the shadow counterparts of those results are also shown.     

Population Growth and the Distribution of Household Income: The Case of Brazil*

Special tabulations of the 1970 census of Brazil are used to estimate fertility and mortality rates by level of household income. Projections to the year 2000 indicate that the poor population will grow substantially faster than the rich population. Projections that simulate upward social mobility and declines in fertility and mortality levels do not alter this conclusion. Differential rates of natural increase by income strata are shown to contribute to an increase in the proportion of the population in the lower income strata, by the end of the century. Although these differentials could be reduced by a more equitable distribution of income, the style of development in Brazil has yielded only a small increase in the real income of the poor. Analysis of the income elasticity of fertility and mortality at different levels of household earnings suggest that this pattern of economic growth will further widen differences in the rate of natural increase by socioeconomic strata. The analysis of the demographic behavior of population subgroups questions the assumption that a lower rate of aggregate population growth in developing countries necessarily contributes to a more equitable distribution of income.     

From enforcement to financial reporting controls (FRCs): a country-level composite indicator

Journal of Management and Governance - This paper proposes a broad measure of the country-level intensity of the main monitoring activities that are likely to affect financial reporting quality....     

The Effects of the Tomatis Method on the Artistic Voice

In the theory of the French Ear, Nose and Throat (ENT) doctor Alfred Tomatis, the voice emits the frequencies the ear can perceive. The auditory stimulation, through the treatment elaborated by Tomatis, can determine the stabilization or the improvement of some vocal parameters, as well as the effect on the formants of voice. A group of N = 19 subjects, singers and actors, were assessed by complete clinical ENT evaluations including fibrolaryngoscopy, otoscopy, and clinical audiometry. The voice analysis was carried out with the Multi-Dimensional Voice Program (MDVP) and with the Praat software. The results demonstrate that after the treatment entails an increase in the mean of energy density on the third formant of voice (F3). An improvement in the ability to maintain a constant intensity of the vocal emission resulted from MDVP analysis with a reduction on the standard deviation of the voice amplitude. The improvement in the auditory perception, particularly for 3 kHz, determines a better intelligibility and articulation of the words. The better auditory perception in the zone of 3 kHz reduces the phenomenon of nasalization and gives expressive power to the artistic voice. The decrease of Peak-Amplitude Variation (vAm) lead to a stable voice emission with a better control.     

Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects

Matching estimators for average treatment effects are widely used in evaluation research despite the fact that their large sample properties have not been established in many cases. The absence of formal results in this area may be partly due to the fact that standard asymptotic expansions do not apply to matching estimators with a fixed number of matches because such estimators are highly nonsmooth functionals of the data. In this article we develop new methods for analyzing the large sample properties of matching estimators and establish a number of new results. We focus on matching with replacement with a fixed number of matches. First, we show that matching estimators are not N^1/2‐consistent in general and describe conditions under which matching estimators do attain N^1/2‐consistency. Second, we show that even in settings where matching estimators are N^1/2‐consistent, simple matching estimators with a fixed number of matches do not attain the semiparametric efficiency bound. Third, we provide a consistent estimator for the large sample variance that does not require consistent nonparametric estimation of unknown functions. Software for implementing these methods is available in Matlab, Stata, and R.     

Ridge regression versus ols by pitman's closeness under quadratic and fisher's loss

The existence of values of the ridge parameter such that ridge regression is preferable to OLS by the Pitman nearness criterion under both the quadratic and the Fisher's loss is shown. Preference regions of the two estimators under the above loss functions are found. An upper bound for the value of the Pitman's measure of closeness, independent of a deterministic or stochastic choice of the ridge parameter, is given.     

Use of bayesian analysis to design of clinical trials with one treatment

Assuming a Weibull distribution, the posterior distribution for the median survival time is derived in the presence of arbitrary right censorship. In the design of clinical triaLs, suppose k follow-up periods have been completed and it is desired to plan the follow-up period k+1. In this context, criteria are presented that can be employed in determining the number of new patients to be enrolled in the follow-up period k+1.