反思当前城镇化发展中的五种偏向

城镇化是关系中国经济发展转型的重大战略问题。文章认为未来中国城镇化可持续发展须坚持城镇化与工业化、农业现代化及信息化的"四化协调"原则,分析了中国城镇化过程中的五大偏向问题,提出实现中国城镇化可持续发展需要实施均衡城镇化发展模式、解决城市政府对土地财政的过度依赖问题、鼓励农民工家庭式迁移和就近转移、推进农民工与市民的平权、改变各城市在GDP上的恶性竞争局面。     

FIGARCH模型对股市收益长记忆性的实证分析

一、问题的提出长记忆性是指过去的冲击持续到将来,对预期的将来具有很大的影响。在大多数情况下,自相关函数的曲线图用来描述时间序列的长记忆特征。因此长记忆性可以定义如下：假设Ｙｔ是一个离散的时间序列,ｊ阶滞后的自相关函数为ρｊ,如果有ｌｉｍｎ→∞Σｎｊ＝...     

<红楼梦>:文化的寓言

《红楼梦》以一群“正邪两赋”的“人格”形象及其各种各样爱情的足迹,展现出一幅如诗如画的“玉堂金马红楼梦”中的生活画卷,从而以“滑稽”与“庄严”同在的宗教意识作为这一“生活”的“衰草枯杨好了歌”。“假语村言”敷衍出的一段故事,概括起的却是一部真实的文化史和一次审美意义上的文化批判,具有一种“文化结论”的意义,从而成为中国文化的一个“寓言”。     

加强和改进高校思想政治工作的若干思考

文章根据江泽民同志对思想政治工作的新的定位,阐述了新形势下高校思想政治工作的地位和作用,分析了资本主义和社会主义的发展历程,论述了当前高校师生思想活动的重大理论问题和实际问题,并针对当前高校思想政治工作的新变化,概括了加强和改进高校思想政治工作的主要内容。     

浅谈MRO企业库存TPIM控制策略

MRO库存目标是使库存处于某种合适状态,用于满足企业需求及减少不合理的资金占用,应付各种情景时的不确定性,如需求未知、订货期不确定、运输超时及采购时间变化等。传统的库存理念不适用于MRO企业的库存管理,这是由MRO物品自身的特殊性决定的。为此,本文中提出一种供应商、MRO物流配送中心和需求企业三方共同库存管理的TPIM库存控制策略,并运用鲁棒优化模型实证分析了TPIM策略的有效性,目的是使库存总成本最低,收益实现最大化,以提高MRO企业市场竞争力。     

EU and China: Destined to Be Partners in Shaping the Post-Kyoto Regime?

This paper argues that China and the EU are destined to be partners in fighting for a second period of commitments for global climate change governance and shaping the post-Kyoto regime to meet the anticipated challenges of the 21^st century. The basic idea backing this argumentation is the assessment that, in comparison with other nations (the United States, Russia, India, Japan and Canada), Europe and China would have most to lose if the upgrading of the Kyoto Protocol fails; and conversely, they would have most to win if the regime survives in a modernized form and with a more comprehensive application of international binding commitments. This is to say, the EU and China have no choice but to work together if they want to achieve their respective political objectives relating to the issue of global climate change in a less costly and more effective way.     

Pornography Actresses: An Assessment of the Damaged Goods Hypothesis

The damaged goods hypothesis posits that female performers in the adult entertainment industry have higher rates of childhood sexual abuse (CSA), psychological problems, and drug use compared to the typical woman. The present study compared the self-reports of 177 porn actresses to a sample of women matched on age, ethnicity, and marital status. Comparisons were conducted on sexual behaviors and attitudes, self-esteem, quality of life, and drug use. Porn actresses were more likely to identify as bisexual, first had sex at an earlier age, had more sexual partners, were more concerned about contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD), and enjoyed sex more than the matched sample, although there were no differences in incidence of CSA. In terms of psychological characteristics, porn actresses had higher levels of self-esteem, positive feelings, social support, sexual satisfaction, and spirituality compared to the matched group. Last, female performers were more likely to have ever used 10 different types of drugs compared to the comparison group. A discriminant function analysis was able to correctly classify 83% of the participants concerning whether they were a porn actress or member of the matched sample. These findings did not provide support for the damaged goods hypothesis.     

基于农民工特征的工业化与城镇化协调发展研究

新时期农民工流动的过程中伴生了工业化和城镇化的六个特点:低价工业化、半城镇化、高价城式化、市民化进程二元化特征、无序人口流动、城市融合进程多样化和复杂化。基于这种特征分析,提出了坚持外造环境与内强素质、分步实施与分类指导、鼓励农民工回归和推进市民化、促进劳动力市场一体化和待遇平等化、发展大都市圈和发展县城为中心的农村城镇化“五个并重”,正确调节进城农民的流向和流速,最终促进工业化和城镇化的协调发展。     

凹型收益率曲线与中等教育投资"瓶颈":对童工的另一种解释

对于童工问题,以往的研究大多以童工本人或其家庭、学校和市场环境作为分析对象,强调贫困对儿童教育的伤害,忽视了教育本身对于受教育者的经济意义,尤其是教育作为一种人力资本投资在经济上的合理性.本文的分析表明,对落后地区的家庭而言,由于中等教育阶段的成本增加而收益下降,使得其收益率较低,缺乏投资上的吸引力,进而导致失学和童工问题.鉴于问题的复杂性,必须将各种法规和措施结合在一起,综合治理,降低贫困家庭中等教育的成本,才有可能突破这一"瓶颈",最终减少和消除童工.     

U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: An Extension and Application of the ProFamy Method

The classic headship-rate method for demographic projections of households is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types without size, and does not deal with household members other than heads. By comparison, the ProFamy method uses demographic rates as input and projects more detailed household types, sizes, and living arrangements for all members of the population. Tests of projections from 1990 to 2000 using ProFamy and based on observed U.S. demographic rates before 1991 show that discrepancies between our projections and census observations in 2000 are reasonably small, validating the new method. Using data from national surveys and vital statistics, census microfiles, and the ProFamy method, we prepare projections of U.S. households from 2000 to 2050. Medium projections as well as projections based on smaller and larger family scenarios with corresponding combinations of assumptions of marriage/union formation and dissolution, fertility, mortality, and international migration are performed to analyze future trends of U.S. households and their possible higher and lower bounds, as well as enormous racial differentials. To our knowledge, the household projections reported in this article are the first to have found empirical evidence of family household momentum and to have provided informative low and high bounds of various indices of projected future households and living arrangements distributions based on possible changes in demographic parameters.