On minimum Lp-distance estimation for inhomogeneous Poisson processes

ABSTRACT

We consider the problem of parameter estimation by the observations of the inhomogeneous Poisson processes. We suppose that the intensity function of these processes is a smooth function of the unknown parameter and as a method of estimation we take the minimum distance approach. We are interested by the behavior of estimators in non Hilbertian situation and we define the minimum distance estimation (MDE) with the help of the L^p metrics. We show that (under regularity conditions) the MDE is consistent and we describe its limit distribution.     

An Overview of a Hospital-Based Child Advocacy Center’s Experience from Turkey

The purpose of the present study was to investigate sociodemographic variables, features of sexual abuse (SA), and first psychiatric evaluation results of abused children, and to analyze the relation of the psychiatric evaluation results to the children’s age and gender, type and duration of abuse, abuser–child relationship, and marital status of the children’s parents, at one of the most experienced Child Advocacy Centers (CACs) in Turkey. All data were obtained from reports prepared by child and adolescent psychiatrists. The sample of this study consists of 436 child sexual abuse (CSA) cases who admitted ?zmir CAC between April 2014 and November 2015. The statistical analyses yielded significant relations between psychiatric symptoms and chronic abuse, the gender of the children, and type of abuse. Suicidal ideation and behaviors due to sexual abuse (SA) were also examined. According to our results, it is fair to say that children exposed to SA benefit from immediate psychiatric help because of their vulnerability for psychiatric disorders due to abuse. In this context, CACs are very important multidisciplinary establishments to determine children’s multiple needs to ease their trauma with collaborative teamwork. Psychiatric evaluation should be part of this multidisciplinary context.     

生态学视阈中的藏族能源文化

能源是关乎社会进步和经济发展的重要资源,从世界各民族发展的历史来看,能源与火的利用关系极为密切。青藏高原特殊生态环境下形成的藏族传统能源文化,具有十分显著的民族特点和地域特点,其中蕴含的生态文化意义,对今天生态文化建构仍具有重要的启迪。     

Bayesian Analysis of Instrumental Variable Models: Acceptance-Rejection within Direct Monte Carlo

We discuss Bayesian inferential procedures within the family of instrumental variables regression models and focus on two issues: existence conditions for posterior moments of the parameters of interest under a flat prior and the potential of Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approaches for efficient evaluation of such possibly highly non-elliptical posteriors. We show that, for the general case of m endogenous variables under a flat prior, posterior moments of order r exist for the coefficients reflecting the endogenous regressors’ effect on the dependent variable, if the number of instruments is greater than m +r, even though there is an issue of local non-identification that causes non-elliptical shapes of the posterior. This stresses the need for efficient Monte Carlo integration methods. We introduce an extension of DMC that incorporates an acceptance-rejection sampling step within DMC. This Acceptance-Rejection within Direct Monte Carlo (ARDMC) method has the attractive property that the generated random drawings are independent, which greatly helps the fast convergence of simulation results, and which facilitates the evaluation of the numerical accuracy. The speed of ARDMC can be easily further improved by making use of parallelized computation using multiple core machines or computer clusters. We note that ARDMC is an analogue to the well-known “Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs” sampling in the sense that one ‘more difficult’ step is used within an ‘easier’ simulation method. We compare the ARDMC approach with the Gibbs sampler using simulated data and two empirical data sets, involving the settler mortality instrument of Acemoglu et al. (2001 Acemoglu , D. , Johnson , S. , Robinson , J. A. ( 2001 ). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation . American Economic Review 91 ( 5 ): 1369 – 1401 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and father's education's instrument used by Hoogerheide et al. (2012a Hoogerheide , L. F. , Block , J. H. , Thurik , A. R. (2012a). Family background variables as instruments for education in income regressions: A Bayesian analysis. Economics of Education Review 31(5):515–523.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Even without making use of parallelized computation, an efficiency gain is observed both under strong and weak instruments, where the gain can be enormous in the latter case.     

The Involvement of a Concerned Significant Other in Gambling Disorder Treatment Outcome

Interpersonal distress is a common feature in gambling disorder and adding a concerned significant other (CSO) to the recovery process could be an effective tool for improving treatment outcome. However, little empirical evidence is available regarding the effectiveness of including a CSO to interventions. We aimed to compare treatment outcomes (i.e. compliance with therapy guidelines, dropout from treatment, and relapse during treatment) in a CBT program involving a CSO to CBT treatment as usual (TAU) without a CSO. The sample comprised male gambling disorder patients (N = 675). The manualized CBT intervention consisted of 16 weekly outpatient group sessions and a 3-month follow-up period. Patient CSOs attended a predetermined number of sessions with the patient and were provided with resources to acquire a better understanding of the disorder, to manage risk situations, and to aid patients in adhering to treatment guidelines. Patients with a CSO had significant higher treatment attendance and reduced dropout compared to patients receiving TAU. Moreover, patients whose spouse was involved in the treatment program were less likely to relapse and adhered to the treatment guidelines more than those with a non-spousal CSO. Our results suggest that incorporating interpersonal support to gambling disorder interventions could potentially improve treatment outcomes.     

An Internet-Based Self-Help Program for the Treatment of Fear of Public Speaking: A Case Study

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the development of the first totally self-administered online CBT program for the treatment of a specific social phobia (fear of public speaking) called talk to me. The online program includes three parts. The assessment protocol gives the patient information about the problem, including impairment, severity, and the degree of fear and avoidance regarding the main feared situations. The structured treatment protocol ensures that the patient does not skip any steps in the treatment. The treatment protocol is a CBT program that provides exposure to the feared situation using videos of real audiences. Finally, the control protocol assesses treatment efficacy, not only at posttreatment, but also at every intermediate step. In this work we describe talk to Me and its practical application through a case study.     

Solving constrained optimization problems by solution-based decomposition search

Solving constrained optimization problems (COPs) is a challenging task. In this paper we present a new strategy for solving COPs called solve and decompose (or \( S \& D\) for short). The proposed strategy is a systematic iterative depth-first strategy that is based on problem decomposition. \( S \& D\) uses a feasible solution of the COP, found by any exact method, to further decompose the original problem into a bounded number of subproblems which are considerably smaller in size. It also uses the value of the feasible solution as a bound that we add to the created subproblems in order to strengthen the cost-based filtering. Furthermore, the feasible solution is exploited in order to create subproblems that have more promise in finding better solutions which are explored in a depth-first manner. The whole process is repeated until we reach a specified depth where we do not decompose the subproblems anymore but we solve them to optimality using any exact method like Branch and Bound. Our initial results on two benchmark problems show that \( S \& D\) may reach improvements of up to three orders of magnitude in terms of runtime when compared to Branch and Bound.     

Stock Market Reaction to Green Vehicle Innovation

We study the stock market reaction to announcements of global green vehicle innovation over a 14‐year time span (1996–2009) using the event study methodology. We document that the stock market generally reacts positively to automakers' announcements of environmental innovations, consistent with prior research on the wealth effects of innovation announcements. Our results indicate that crucial green product development decisions such as innovation type and market segment choices exert direct influence on a firm's market value. These results hold after controlling for firm size, leverage, profitability, R&D intensity, and oil price changes.