Statistical modeling for Bayesian extrapolation of adult clinical trial information in pediatric drug evaluation

Children represent a large underserved population of “therapeutic orphans,” as an estimated 80% of children are treated off‐label. However, pediatric drug development often faces substantial challenges, including economic, logistical, technical, and ethical barriers, among others. Among many efforts trying to remove these barriers, increased recent attention has been paid to extrapolation; that is, the leveraging of available data from adults or older age groups to draw conclusions for the pediatric population. The Bayesian statistical paradigm is natural in this setting, as it permits the combining (or “borrowing”) of information across disparate sources, such as the adult and pediatric data. In this paper, authored by the pediatric subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group and Adaptive Design Working Group, we develop, illustrate, and provide suggestions on Bayesian statistical methods that could be used to design improved pediatric development programs that use all available information in the most efficient manner. A variety of relevant Bayesian approaches are described, several of which are illustrated through 2 case studies: extrapolating adult efficacy data to expand the labeling for Remicade to include pediatric ulcerative colitis and extrapolating adult exposure‐response information for antiepileptic drugs to pediatrics.     

Ideas in Action: Teaching Qualitative Analytic Methods in Social Work Research through the Analysis of Song Lyrics

This article describes the innovative use of a pop culture source-song lyrics to augment the teaching of qualitative methods in social work research. The use of pop culture sources as learning tools in the MSW curriculum has the potential to enhance the learning experience for students. These techniques have not been applied in the content of MSW research classes. This approach could be advantageous over other typical data sources because it is more accessible to students while also being reflective of a collective identity of people in society. Future work should assess student and educator responses to this pedagogical approach.     

环状区域的车辆路径方案生成系统及优化模型

针对顾客满足环状区域分布的车辆路径问题(VRP),以大幅度地缩减问题求解的状态空间为突破口,引入人工智能和运筹学理论,提出求解这类特殊车辆路径问题的两阶段方法.第1阶段考虑行车时间和车载容量,提出带有控制策略的深度优先搜索算法自动生成备选的车辆路径方案集合.第2阶段将此备选方案集合归结为整数规划模型.采用VB6.0编程语言构建了车辆路径方案生成系统,并实现该系统与运筹学求解软件lindo的集成.通过案例验证了上述方法及自动求解系统的有效性.该项研究为解决环状配送区域的车辆路径问题这一难题提供了新方法.     

Evaluation of the Food and Agriculture Sector Criticality Assessment Tool (FASCAT) and the Collected Data

To protect and secure food resources for the United States, it is crucial to have a method to compare food systems’ criticality. In 2007, the U.S. government funded development of the Food and Agriculture Sector Criticality Assessment Tool (FASCAT) to determine which food and agriculture systems were most critical to the nation. FASCAT was developed in a collaborative process involving government officials and food industry subject matter experts (SMEs). After development, data were collected using FASCAT to quantify threats, vulnerabilities, consequences, and the impacts on the United States from failure of evaluated food and agriculture systems. To examine FASCAT's utility, linear regression models were used to determine: (1) which groups of questions posed in FASCAT were better predictors of cumulative criticality scores; (2) whether the items included in FASCAT's criticality method or the smaller subset of FASCAT items included in DHS's risk analysis method predicted similar criticality scores. Akaike's information criterion was used to determine which regression models best described criticality, and a mixed linear model was used to shrink estimates of criticality for individual food and agriculture systems. The results indicated that: (1) some of the questions used in FASCAT strongly predicted food or agriculture system criticality; (2) the FASCAT criticality formula was a stronger predictor of criticality compared to the DHS risk formula; (3) the cumulative criticality formula predicted criticality more strongly than weighted criticality formula; and (4) the mixed linear regression model did not change the rank‐order of food and agriculture system criticality to a large degree.     

Competition and Coordination in a Two‐Channel Supply Chain

We study competition and coordination in a supply chain in which a single supplier both operates a direct channel and sells its product through multiple differentiated retailers. We study analytically the supply chain with symmetric retailers and find that the supplier prefers to have as many retailers as possible in the market, even if the retailers' equilibrium retail price is lower than that of the supplier, and even if the number of retailers and their cost or market advantage prevent sales through the direct channel. We find that the two‐channel supply chain may be subject to inefficiencies not present in the single‐channel supply chain. We show that several contracts known to coordinate a single‐channel supply chain do not coordinate the two‐channel supply chain; thus we propose a linear quantity discount contract and demonstrate its ability to perfectly coordinate the two‐channel supply chain with symmetric retailers. We provide some analytical results for the supply chain with asymmetric retailers and propose an efficient solution approach for finding the equilibrium. We find numerically that the supplier still benefits from having more retailers in the market and that linear quantity discount contracts can mitigate supply chain inefficiency, though they no longer achieve perfect coordination.     

Individual and situational correlates of motivation for skills upgrading: an empirical study

The present research examines the tenability of a number of factors thought to precede an individual's motivation for skills upgrading. Because motivation for skills upgrading is instrumental to training success and is highly malleable, knowing the factors that precede motivation for skills upgrading would help managers and policy makers a great deal in formulating strategies to raise the competitiveness of the workforce. We derive several testable hypotheses from the existing literature and empirically verify the selected antecedents of motivation for skills upgrading. Results based on responses from 413 employees suggest that an individual's attitude towards skills upgrading, self-efficacy, usefulness of skills upgrading, health condition and long-term orientation are positively related to motivation for skills upgrading. Implications for policy makers, managers and researchers are discussed.     

What does the pursuit of a high quality of life entail?: Grounding a theoretical model in lived experience

In response to calls for a better understanding of quality of life, we draw upon working professionals’ perspectives and experiences to introduce a theoretical model that emerged from an inductive analysis of respondents’ language. A key element of this model includes a collective picture of factors representing quality of life. Further, this model suggests interrelatedness among these factors with pursuit of a high quality of life emerging as a dynamic process with a tensional nature. Our proposed model extends existing research by more fully capturing the complex ways in which people from the United States describe quality of life and its pursuit.     

Children’s Time Use: Labor Divisions and Schooling in Indonesia

Data from the Worker and Iron Status Evaluation are used to examine gendered patterns in children’s time in market and nonmarket work, schooling, and leisure in Indonesia (N= 2,929). Boys spend more time in market work; girls spend more time in nonmarket work. Work responsibilities increase with age as well as gender differentials in children’s time use. By age 18, girls spend nearly 1 more hour per day working and enjoy significantly less leisure time, but the gender gap in schooling is not significant, suggesting that parents and children are committed to both work and schooling. Additionally, Tobit regression results suggest that parents’ education, household income, and rural residency are important predictors of children’s labor and schooling time.     

The Immigrant Paradox in Pregnancy: Explaining the First‐Generation Advantage for Latina Adolescents

The immigrant paradox is a population health pattern whereby later generation immigrant youth display less favorable outcomes when compared to first‐generation co‐ethnic peers. This study examines the role of number of sex partners in explaining the immigrant paradox in pregnancy among Latina adolescents. This secondary analysis utilized a nationally representative sample of Latinas in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. As expected, first‐generation Latina adolescents demonstrated less risk than second‐ or third+ generation Latinas for becoming pregnant. Further, the lower number of sexual partners fully accounted for the first generation's advantage in lower rate of adolescent pregnancy. These findings have important implications for healthcare providers who work with Latina girls in pregnancy prevention.     

Sexual Assault Risks Among Gay and Bisexual Men

The goal of this study was to examine lifetime patterns of sexual assault and associated risks among a purposive sample of gay and bisexual men (N = 183; 18 to 35 years old, M = 24.3). Cross-sectional data were collected via written, self-administered questionnaires and face-to-face, event-based qualitative interviews. Alcohol severity scores indicated high rates of hazardous drinking (53.0%) and possible dependence (14.2%) among participants. One-half of men (50.8%) reported childhood sexual abuse (CSA), and 67.2% reported adult sexual assault (ASA). Average age at most recent ASA was 21 years. Most perpetrators (83.9%) of recent ASA incidents were male; 67.0% of participants reported consuming alcohol and/or drugs prior to the most recent incident. Regression findings indicated more severe CSA experiences and past alcohol-related problems predicted recent severe ASA. Although we found similarities between gay and bisexual men in lifetime sexual assault history, we found some distinct differences in ASA risk factors. Bisexual men reported higher alcohol severity scores, more female ASA perpetrators, higher internalized homophobia scores, and fewer male sexual partners than gay men. Findings suggest the need for interventions that reduce ASA risk among sexual minority men—and the potential benefits of focusing on alcohol consumption in risk reduction efforts.